USF vs Syracuse Prediction: Boca Raton Bowl Odds and Picks

The Syracuse Orange will try to turn their coming offseason hype into immediate success when they face the South Florida Bulls in the Boca Raton Bowl tonight.

Syracuse fired head coach Dino Babers last month, replacing him with former Georgia assistant Fran Brown — a move that has seemingly opened the floodgates when it comes to recruiting and transfer portal wins for the Orange. South Florida is making its first appearance in a bowl game since 2018, though college football odds say the Bulls are underdogs to the Orange on Thursday.

The Bulls haven’t been great on defense this season, but the Orange will be without their starting quarterback. I take a look at what that means for bettors in my free college football picks for South Florida vs. Syracuse on December 21.

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USF vs Syracuse best odds

USF vs Syracuse picks and predictions

Syracuse will play the Boca Raton Bowl without starting quarterback Garrett Shrader, who decided to undergo shoulder surgery at the end of the regular season. Shrader was struggling with shoulder issues for much of the year but decided to help his team qualify for a bowl game before making that decision, which ultimately meant he had to play right up until the regular season finale victory over the Wake Forest Demon Deacons.

Although Shrader wasn't known for producing huge numbers, his skillset will nonetheless be missed against South Florida. His arm and legs would have posed a huge problem for the Bulls, who allowed 34.9 points per game on the year and 6.3 yards per play. They were especially vulnerable against the passing game, though Shrader likely would have burned them in multiple ways over 60 minutes on Thursday.

Instead, Syracuse will lean on backup Carlos Del Rio-Wilson. The sophomore had some chances to play this year but threw for just three scores against six interceptions. Most of his meaningful playing time came against the Boston College Eagles, where he threw four picks while completing just 17 of 37 passes.

While Del Rio-Wilson can potentially use his legs as effectively as Shrader, he won’t stretch the field by threatening the South Florida secondary. This will be a huge issue for the Syracuse offense, taking a game in which the Orange would have been a strong favorite and making it much more of a tossup.

Defense will keep Syracuse in the game, however. The Orange are allowing just 23.8 points per game, and that number could have been far better if not for a couple of blemishes that were not entirely on the defense.

The offense put up a total of just 20 points against the North Carolina, Florida State, and Virginia, barely staying on the field and leading an exhausted defense to give up an average of 39.7 points in those three games.

While the Orange may struggle without Shrader, they’ll at least move the ball more than against stronger ACC opponents. Byrum Brown is an effective dual-threat quarterback himself, but Syracuse's defense will be able to contain him as it's done against all but the best competition the Orange have faced this year.

Based on those factors, I’m expecting this game to be played to a much lower score than the oddsmakers are predicting. We can get this total at as high as 57 points, and I doubt either team will get to 30 points in this matchup. My pick is the Under.

My best bet: Under 57 (-110 at DraftKings)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

USF vs Syracuse same-game parlay

Under 57

Syracuse -2

Syracuse team total Under 31.5

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While I think the Under is the best play for the Boca Raton Bowl, there are a couple of other bets we can combine with it to make a strong same-game parlay on the contest. I’m going to start by taking Syracuse to cover the two-point spread. Cuse may struggle a bit without Shrader, but I don’t think he was ever the key to this game, and the Orange should be able to ride their superior talent and very good defensive unit to victory.

The important factor to consider is the Syracuse defense, which is the best single unit on the field for this game. The Orange should win this one, but it won’t be in a shootout. That’s why I’m closing out this SGP with a bet on Syracuse to score Under 31.5 points. That adds significant value to my parlay but fits in with the kind of game I expect on Thursday night.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

USF vs Syracuse spread and Over/Under analysis

Syracuse opened the Boca Raton Bowl as a 3.5-point favorite. That number dropped below the key field goal number — with the consensus spread now Cuse -2.5 — although some books are going as low as -2.

Both teams were about average against the spread this season. South Florida put up a 6-6 ATS mark, while the Orange went 5-6-1. 

The total for this game opened at 58.5 points. As of Monday night, the consensus Over/Under had dropped down to 56.5 points, with some books holding on at 57. In either case, you can find -110 odds on either side of the market.

South Florida has been an offensive team all year, which has pushed the Over to a 7-5 record when the Bulls play. Conversely, the Under holds a 7-5 advantage in Syracuse games this season.

USF vs Syracuse betting trend to know

Syracuse has played to a total of 55 or less in 10 of its last 12 games. Find more college football betting trends for USF vs Syracuse.

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