UTEP vs Sam Houston Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Mining for Value in Total Markets

Midweek C-USA action gives fans more to cheer about as the UTEP Miners hit the road to face the Sam Houston State Bearkats. 

Something has to give in this matchup between struggling teams — the Miners have seemingly bottomed out under Dana Dimel, while the Bearkats are still searching for their first FBS win. 

Looking at college football odds, the Bearkats are expected to pick up their first victory of the season as 3.5-point favorites with the total set at 36. 

The low total is understandable considering both teams’ offensive futility, but how low is low enough before the Over comes into play?

Read on for my best bet and free college football picks and predictions for UTEP vs. Sam Houston State on Wednesday, October 25. 

UTEP vs Sam Houston best odds

UTEP vs Sam Houston picks and predictions

UTEP certainly is not an easy coaching gig, but at this point, it’s probably fair to question what direction the program is headed in under Dana Dimel. It’s year six and the head coach has just a 19-46 record with one winning season (2021), but has been unable to build momentum off that finish, heading in the wrong direction ever since. 

It’s been a bit of a lost season for UTEP, and the problems have been exacerbated by injuries. Fourth-year starting quarterback Gavin Hardison (7,963 career passing yards) missed each of the last three games and his status is uncertain for this week’s matchup while his top target, receiver Tyrin Smith (1,039 receiving yards a year ago), has also been absent for several weeks and there’s talk of him taking a redshirt season, so it’s unclear when or if he’ll be available in 2023. 

Sam Houston has struggled mightily on the offensive side of the ball, averaging the country's second-lowest points (13.4) while mustering just 283.1 total yards per game on 4.4 yards per play. K.C. Keeler has come maddeningly close to his first FBS win at several points this season but has ultimately fallen short each time. 

I believe there’s some value here in the total, which is set all the way down in the basement at 36. First off, it’s understandable that this game features a low total — UTEP is without its top weapons in the passing game and averaged just 16.4 PPG, while Sam Houston has been one of the worst offenses in the nation across the full season. 

That being said, I think the number is simply too low and there’s a slight reason for optimism with both offenses. First off and most importantly, the numbers are underrating Sam Houston’s offense, which has been much better during CUSA play. The Bearkats couldn’t move an inch during the non-conference portion of the schedule, averaging just 147.7 yards per game. It’s been night and day in CUSA play, as they’re averaging 385.8 yards per game and have managed at least 5.1 yards per play in each of their last three games. 

It was somewhat forced due to a string of injuries at the running back position, but the offensive identity has switched to more of a pass-first approach. Quarterback Keegan Shoemaker has thrived in conference play, averaging 43.5 attempts for 282.2 passing yards per game. Noah Smith has emerged as the go-to man, leading all Group of 5 receivers with 51 targets and 40 receptions since Week 5, which he’s taken for 344 yards and four touchdowns (in four games). 

On the other side of things, UTEP’s offense has still shown some signs of life despite dealing with the aforementioned injuries. The offensive line remains a strength, returning four starters — all of whom earned All-CUSA recognition — from a year ago. The Miners check in at 85th in EPA per play on offense, which isn’t far off from where the Bearkats rank defensively (74th), so they don’t forecast at a huge disadvantage when they have the ball. 

Sam Houston’s defense is fine, but it's not exactly elite. The Bearkats have surrendered at least six yards per play in four of their last five matchups, and despite bucking that trend last week in a strong effort against Florida International, the defense still fell apart in the final minutes with the game on the line. 

This total is so low that we only need a moderate effort from both offenses to cash the Over. Sam Houston has been playing much better on that side of the ball lately while the defense has been burned a few times in CUSA play, so I’ll take that bet. 

My best bet: Over 36 (-110 at PointsBet)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

UTEP vs Sam Houston same-game parlay

Over 36.5 (-110)
Noah Smith Anytime TD (-130)
Kelly Akharaiyi Anytime TD (+210)

+500 at DraftKings

This SGP will be a three-legger centered around my best bet on the Over to go along with two anytime touchdown scorer props. 

The first of those props involves Sam Houston’s go-to receiver, Smith, finding the end zone — something he’s done four times in the last four games. He’s been targeted more than any player in college football across his last four games and that kind of heavy volume makes him a good bet to hit paydirt against a UTEP defense that ranks just 102nd in EPA per play. 

The second prop features UTEP receiver Kelly Akharaiyi scoring a touchdown at +210 odds. Akharaiyi has also been a usage monster lately, sapping up nine targets per game across his last three outings as he fills the WR1 role vacated by Smith. This offensive system involves heavily targeting its top receiver and Akharaiyi has a high ceiling as evidenced by his eight-catch, 223-yard, two-touchdown performance against Florida International two weeks ago. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

UTEP vs Sam Houston spread and Over/Under analysis

There’s been some line movement toward Sam Houston, which opened at -2 but has since moved across a key number to -3.5. 

It’s a bit funny to see line movement toward an 0-7 team, but it’s more understandable once you look at Sam Houston’s recent games. 

The first conference game saw the Bearkats grab a 21-7 halftime lead over Jacksonville State only to collapse in the closing moments and fall 35-28 in overtime. That was proceeded by a five-point loss to a good Liberty team and a 27-13 loss on the road to New Mexico State. Most recently, the Bearkats again seemed headed for their first win as they led Florida International 20-17 with 1:24 remaining in the fourth quarter but ultimately collapsed again and lost 33-27 in double overtime. 

All that being said, it’s still difficult for me to lay over a field goal in a game between two bad teams. Sure, Sam Houston should be fired up to grab its first win and will be playing a beatable opponent at home. Still, the same thing could’ve been said last week, and yet the Bearkats couldn’t finish the job because they aren’t a very good football team. 

UTEP isn’t good either, but the Miners grade out as the better offensive team (85th in EPA per play compared to 127th for Sam Houston) while the margin on defense isn’t quite as large (74th in EPA per play for Sam Houston, 102nd for UTEP). 

Dimel’s teams like to muddy things up and grind games down to a halt, which narrows the margin for error for the favorite. 

UTEP vs Sam Houston betting trend to know

Sam Houston is 2-0 O/U at home this season. Find more college football betting trends for UTEP vs Sam Houston.

UTEP vs Sam Houston game info

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