Could the Virginia Tech Hokies actually win the ACC? Probably not, but they might be one upset away from a rematch with Florida State in the ACC title game. That may sound absurd, but since the Hokies plugged in quarterback Kyron Drones, that is how good life has been.
That upset would need to come this weekend over the Louisville Cardinals in the latest college football odds. It may be a tough ask for Drones in his seventh career start, springing a two-possession upset on the road, but at this point, all of Virginia Tech’s run has been unexpected.
The Hokies just may keep it going in our free college football picks and predictions for Virginia Tech vs Louisville on November 4.
Virginia Tech vs Louisville best odds
Virginia Tech vs Louisville picks and predictions
Virginia Tech lost Kyron Drones’s first two starts, but the quarterback has sparked the Hokies’ offense ever since.
In their last two games, Virginia Tech has averaged 495 total yards and 229.5 rushing yards. Those two defenses, Wake Forest’s and Syracuse’s, are rather comparable to Louisville’s. Against all three, opponents prefer to throw rather than run, each ranking in the Top 40 of the nation in passing rate over expected when considering the game state.
Syracuse is better against the pass than the run, the inverse of Wake Forest and Louisville, but none of them are particularly woeful against either half of an opposing offense. Yet, the Hokies hung 30 and 38 points in the last two weeks, respectively.
Louisville excels against the run, ranking No. 8 in the country in adjusted expected points added per rush, a key piece of them preventing quality drives on more than three-quarters of possessions. However, Virginia Tech doesn’t find its success via the run and instead relies on explosive passing plays, something Louisville is somewhat vulnerable to.
Unless the Cardinals revert to a ball-control offense — something that would be antithetical to Jeff Brohm’s entire existence — it is hard to imagine Virginia Tech falling short of 20 points. Drones has put together enough of a successful sample size to believe in, and his last two weeks of excellence were against worthwhile defenses.
My best bet: Virginia Tech team total Over 19.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
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Virginia Tech vs Louisville same-game parlay
Virginia Tech team total Over 19.5
Louisville first half team total Over 14.5 points
Over 48.5 points
Put some faith in Brohm, as Lousivlle's head coach knows the stakes this weekend. The ACC is very much up for grabs, and the Cardinals are likely to have a well-honed opening script. When Brohm gets in his bag, some early points can be expected.
In Louisville’s two biggest games this season, it put up 24 combined points in the first half. If the Cardinals get on the board early and Drones matches their offense with success of his own, then this game should have no trouble getting Over such a manageable total.
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Virginia Tech vs Louisville spread and Over/Under analysis
Louisville opened as a 12-point favorite, with bookmakers perhaps not giving enough credit to Drones’s production. By Sunday afternoon, the spread had fallen to -10.5 and now currently sits at -9.5.
The Cardinals have been two-possession favorites twice this season, going 1-1 against the spread.
The total opened at 53.5 before almost immediately falling to 48.5, where it stuck throughout the week, a hook below the key number of 49. These are quality defenses, but when two high-scoring offenses meet, a total below 50 makes little sense.
Virginia Tech vs Louisville betting trend to know
Virginia Tech has beaten the spread in each of its last four games, including one outright win as an underdog. Find more college football betting trends for Virginia Tech vs Louisville.
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Virginia Tech vs Louisville game info
| Location: | Cardinal Stadium, Louisville, KY |
| Date: | Saturday, November 4, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ACC Network |
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