We’re deep into November and the race for the College Football Playoff is still wide open. That’s taken some of the attention away from games without National Championship odds ramifications, even when they present interesting opportunities for bettors.
This week, I’m betting on games featuring some well-known programs that won’t be playing for a national title this year. I’ve also singled out two low-scoring games that should produce a few more points than their totals suggest.
Read on to find out which bets I like for my best college football parlay picks of Week 11.
Week 11 college football parlay picks
- Clemson -7 (-105) + Mississippi +11.5 (-110) = +272
- New Mexico-Air Force Over 37.5 (-106) + Wisconsin-Iowa Over 35 (-112) = +267
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Parlay Pick 1
PARLAY: Clemson -7 (-105) + Mississippi +11.5 (-110) = +272 at DraftKings
Clemson -7 (-105)
Breaking news: the Clemson Tigers have lost a regular season game. The Tigers are now merely 8-1 this season, and while they should scoop up another ACC championship, most pundits give them little or no chance of snagging a College Football Playoff berth.
Clemson may not be elite, but they are still a strong team that will almost definitely be favored in the rest of its regular season games. That includes Saturday’s matchup against the Louisville Cardinals, who are a formidable 6-3 on the season.
Louisville has played well of late, winning its past four games. However, it also has some rough results on its record, including a 34-33 loss to the lowly Boston College Eagles. The Cardinals have easily covered in each of their last four games, most recently beating the James Madison Dukes by a 34-10 margin. Yet even that game wasn’t easy for Louisville, as it was tied 10-10 at the half.
A few surprisingly easy wins have led the market to overrate the Cardinals, while a single loss to the Notre Dame Fighting Irish has left the Tigers somewhat underrated. Clemson may not be dominating every game it plays, but it remains one of the best and most well-rounded teams in the country.
At home, Clemson should cover the spread on the strength of its elite defense, which will be the most difficult test quarterback Malik Cunningham and the Louisville offense have faced this year.
Mississippi +11.5 (-110)
It’s about time to admit that the Alabama Crimson Tide just might not be that special this year. I’m not crazy enough to say they aren’t a good team, but the Tide have not only suffered two losses, they’ve also come close to defeats against Texas and Texas A&M this season.
Alabama faces a difficult test this week as it visits the Mississippi Rebels (8-1). While Mississippi hasn’t played the same kind of schedule as the Crimson Tide so far this year, its overall resume stacks up similarly. The Rebels' only loss came in a road game against the LSU Tigers, and they have wins over Texas A&M, Auburn, and Kentucky, among others.
Both of these teams should be able to move the ball on offense. Mississippi has been great at pounding teams on the ground — ranking third in the nation in rushing offense at 267.4 yards per game — before finishing things off through the air. Alabama is more balanced, as quarterback Bryce Young has gotten plenty of support from a rushing attack that has racked up 1,823 yards and 19 touchdowns.
The Crimson Tide has an edge here, as their defense is a bit better than that of Mississippi. Alabama has been particularly good at stopping the ground attack, allowing just 104 rushing yards per game, but the Rebels will control the pace of this contest and have enough talent to stay in this one right until the final whistle.
This spread is far too wide, as Mississippi should stay within single digits and have at least a chance to win the game late in the fourth quarter.
Parlay Pick 2
PARLAY: Nex Mexico-Air Force Over 37.5 (-106) + Wisconsin-Iowa Over 35 (-112) = +267 at BetRivers
New Mexico-Air Force Over 37.5 (-106)
The Air Force Falcons are deservedly large favorites over the New Mexico Lobos on Saturday, as they are better on both offense and defense in this matchup. Air Force has held its opponents to just 15.7 points per game, while the Lobos are scoring just 16 points on average. In other words, this will be a long day for the New Mexico offense.
Despite their professional expertise in the air, the Falcons prefer to remain grounded on the football field, averaging a nation-best 329.6 yards per game on the ground. That bodes well against a mediocre New Mexico defense that has valiantly tried to keep the Lobos in games this year but is better against the pass than the run.
It would be stunning for this game to turn into any kind of shootout, but this doesn’t look like a game that will stay under 40 points. Everyone has at least scored against Air Force this year and New Mexico has gotten on the board against everyone they’ve played outside of LSU. That means the Lobos are probably good for 7-10 points and could get lucky and score a bit more.
Meanwhile, Air Force should run all over the New Mexico defense, putting up at least 28 points as it wears down the Lobos. The Falcons might cover this Over on their own, and New Mexico will add enough offense to safely surpass the total.
Wisconsin-Iowa Over 35 (-112)
Two evenly-matched teams that play better defense than offense? The Wisconsin Badgers at the Iowa Hawkeyes should be Big Ten football at its best. Both teams are 5-4, the spread is tight, and the total is a measly 35 points, just baiting us to take the Over.
I, for one, am taking the bait. That doesn’t mean I have any confidence in the Iowa offense, which is near the bottom of the nation in all major categories. And I know the Hawkeyes can frustrate opposing offenses: they allow just 14.3 points per game while holding opponents to an average of 264.4 yards of offense.
Wisconsin can score points, however. In recent weeks they’ve put up 35 on the Purdue Boilermakers, 28 against the Michigan State Spartans, and 42 against the Northwestern Wildcats — a team that just held the vaunted Ohio State Buckeyes to 21 points.
Those aren’t eye-popping numbers, but they really shine a light on how low this total really is. Wisconsin will score some points, and that leaves Iowa with little work to do to hit the Over. While the Badgers play solid defense, even the sad Iowa offense has looked better as of late, scoring 33 against Northwestern and 24 at Purdue.
This game should be close, and both teams have reason to think they can mount at least a little effective offense against the other. Even a 21-20 or 20-17 final gets us to the Over, and that’s the kind of game I expect to see on Saturday.
