The West Virginia Mountaineers are on a mission to renew all their rivalries in 2022. After entertaining the country with their close loss at Pittsburgh to open the season, the Mountaineers head to Lane Stadium to face the Virginia Tech Hokies, and despite being on the road, West Virginia remains favored for this Thursday night kick.
Here are our free college football picks and predictions for West Virginia at Virginia Tech on September 22, with kickoff set for 7:30 ET.
West Virginia vs Virginia Tech best odds
West Virginia vs Virginia Tech picks and predictions
The wrong team is favored.
There, that’s the handicap. That’s the bold take. And yet, the line spent most of the week moving toward West Virginia. After opening as just a 1-point favorite on Sunday, the Mountaineers eventually became field-goal favorites by Monday. That returned to a more reasonable -1.5 by midweek, but still, that move back was not enough.
Admittedly, any number within the 2s is effectively adding juice to a pick’em, but that juice should favor Virginia Tech, not West Virginia.
The Hokies’ greatest weakness is Marshall transfer quarterback Grant Wells’ predilection to interceptions. In the last 19 games, he has thrown 22 interceptions and 22 touchdowns. He torpedoed multiple Thundering Herd seasons with those mistakes, and Virginia Tech’s season-opening loss at Old Dominion further emphasized his routine poor reads.
This week, though, there are three reasons not to worry about his worst habit, or at least not worry as much. First of all, he has not thrown an interception in two weeks. That may seem like a low bar to clear, but there were 42 pass attempts in those two contests, enough for Wells to usually consider two picks.
“What you saw the last two weeks from Grant is what we saw in 58 of 60 practices,” Hokies head coach Brent Pry said this week. “That’s what he’s been to us.”
Second of all, West Virginia has yet to intercept a pass this season. Sure, that has come against only 76 pass attempts in three games, but of the three players to pick off multiple passes last year, none of them returned to the Mountaineers roster this season. Even then, West Virginia snagged opposing passes only nine times in 2021, once every 41 pass attempts.
Lastly, Virginia Tech may have reason to lean into the run game this week. Pry said he “feels good” about junior running back Keshawn King returning to the lineup Thursday after missing one week. King has taken 23 carries for 175 yards and a score this season, a unique combination of bellcow and big-play back. The Mountaineers’ defense is, at best, average against the rush, and that may be being charitable.
If Wells doesn’t have to do too much, his recent relative success may continue. If able to remove a team’s biggest weakness from a home game, then taking that team as an underdog feels like an excellent decision.
My best bet: Virginia Tech (+104 at FanDuel)
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West Virginia vs Virginia Tech betting preview
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•Spread analysis •Over/Under analysis •Trend to know •Game info •Injuries •Weather
Spread analysis
There is a philosophical discussion to be had about spreads of two points or less in college football. They are obviously not a pick’em, but perhaps they should be treated as such. Especially with overtime rules changing to the point that any game in overtime has a strong chance of being decided on two-point conversions, this spread quickly becomes a moneyline thought as much as a spread decision.
Consider: The best odds on the market as of midday Wednesday offer West Virginia -1.5 at -107 odds or as a moneyline favorite of -115. On the flipside, Virginia Tech is available at +1.5 at -106 or as an outright upset at +105. Is eight cents really worth demanding a two-point win? Is nine cents worth the lost upside of a coin-flip win?
Long-term philosophy aside, siding with the road team in a toss-up comes across as a questionable choice. This implies the Mountaineers would be a touchdown-favorite against Virginia Tech if this was played in Morgantown, and that is exceptionally hard to believe.
Something feels off with this spread, and that something goes beyond Wells’ regular interceptions.
Over/Under analysis
A total knocking about just north of 50 points, both 50.5 and 51.5 available as you eat lunch on Wednesday, clearly argues for a low-scoring affair, and that has become a Virginia Tech norm. The Hokies scored exactly 27 points in both their wins the last two weeks.
It is safe to assume West Virginia’s offense is better than either Wofford’s or Boston College’s. One of those leans on an FCS-caliber offensive line and the other is Wofford. So, the Mountaineers should manage more than their 17 combined points against Virginia Tech, but a bonanza would be a surprise. If anyone is going to exceed its expected points on Thursday, it should be the Hokies. West Virginia has given up 38 points to Pitt and 42 in regulation to Kansas this season.
All due respect to the improved Jayhawaks, they still should not be scoring 42 points against anyone. How did Kansas do that? Mostly on the ground, taking 35 carries for 201 yards and four touchdowns before kneeling out the clock. That 5.74 yards per rush average may be a bit much for King & Co. to match, but Virginia Tech’s offensive weakness could have some success against the Mountaineers’ defensive front. In that case, this total of 51, give or take, could start to feel too low.
West Virginia vs Virginia Tech betting trend to know
The Under is 7-0 in Virginia Tech’s last seven games in September, perhaps an overly-specific trend on the surface, but it includes three games this month going Under by an average of 10.2 points, this exact matchup going Under by 1.5 points last year, and four games last September going Under by an average of 15.75 points. That 2021 stretch lends some credence to this Hokies roster simply starting slow rather than a misstep by head coach Brent Pry.
Find more NCAA betting trends for West Virginia vs. Virginia Tech.
West Virginia vs Virginia Tech game info
• Location: Lane Stadium, Blacksburg, VA
• Date: Thursday, September 22, 2022
• Kick-off: 7:30 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN
West Virginia vs Virginia Tech key injuries
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West Virginia vs Virginia Tech weather
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