Western Michigan vs Bowling Green Odds, Picks and Predictions: Ugly Affair Expected

MACtion returns in Week 10 with four midweek games on tap in the conference.

The Western Michigan Broncos look to make it two straight victories as they hit the road to face the Bowling Green Falcons.

It’s been quite a turnaround season thus far for Scott Loeffler, who has the Falcons in position to make some noise in the MAC after posting a combined 4-13 record from 2020 to 2021. Can they keep the winning ways alive during MACtion?

Check out our college football betting picks and predictions for Western Michigan vs. Bowling Green on Wednesday, November 2 to find out. 

Western Michigan vs Bowling Green best odds

Western Michigan vs Bowling Green picks and predictions

Last time out, Western Michigan snapped the Miami RedHawks’ 16-game home winning streak with a 16-10 win. The defense was living in Miami’s backfield, accumulating seven sacks, nine tackles for loss, and forcing two fumbles. It’ll be curious to see who is under center for the Broncos on Wednesday night after true freshman Treyson Bourguet got the nod against the RedHawks over a banged-up Jack Salopek.

As the starter for most of the season, Salopek has been ineffective. He’s completed just 50.8% of his passes for 6.4 yards per attempt while throwing more interceptions (10) than touchdowns (7). Bourguet didn’t look much better against Miami, completing 48% of his passes for a meager 3.7 yards per attempt. 

Offense has been a problem all season long for the Broncos, who rank 119th in total offense with 305.5 total yards per game and 112th in scoring offense with 20.8 points per game. QB1 is a major question mark for a team that has struggled to replace three-year starter Kaleb Eleby.

The running game hasn’t been able to get much going despite having two good RBs in Sean Tyler and La’Darius Jefferson. WMU has mustered just 123.5 rushing yards per game on 3.3 yards per carry, ranking 107th in Rushing Success Rate and 116th in Rushing Explosiveness.

An initial glance at Bowling Green’s defense statistics might lead you to believe that this could be a cure-all matchup for the Broncos. BGSU ranks just 111th in total defense (431.1 yards per game) and 122nd in scoring defense (34.6 points per game). Those numbers are dragged down by a difficult non-conference schedule including games against UCLA and Mississippi State, and they paint a highly inaccurate picture. 

After allowing 45 points per game in the non-conference portion of the schedule, the Falcons are allowing just 24.2 points per game in MAC play. They rank 56th in expected points added (EPA) per play on defense and have the 67th-best success rate on that side of the ball. This is one of the conference’s best defenses and they should be able to hold down a bad WMU offense en route to a low-scoring victory at home.

My best bet: Under 47.5 (-110 at BetMGM)

Western Michigan vs Bowling Green spread analysis

The spread opened as low as Bowling Green -1 at some books but has quickly moved to -3.5 at all locations as of the time of this writing.

While losing the hook hurts, this line movement is headed in the right direction toward a Falcons team that is a deserving favorite at home. Anything above -4 would not be advised considering this should be a low-scoring game and therefore could be close on the scoreboard, but -3.5 still has me leaning toward BGSU. Allow me to explain.

WMU has been a terrible bet lately, going just 4-10-1 against the spread in its last 15 conference games. Both teams are coming off a bye week, which is bad news for the Broncos considering they are 0-5 ATS in their last five games when coming off a bye. The win over Miami was a nice step in the right direction, but WMU is just 8-21-1 in its last 30 games following an ATS win.

The trends are not favorable to BGSU, either, as the Falcons are just 11-26 ATS in their last 37 home games and are 2-5 ATS in their last seven against a team with a winning record. It’s evident that the Falcons are improving, however, winning two straight conference games with an average cover margin of 15.5. The advanced numbers say they have both the better offense (BGSU 97th in EPA, WMU 114th) and defense (BGSU 56th in EPA, WMU 106th) in this matchup,

Western Michigan vs Bowling Green Over/Under analysis

The total varies between 46.5 and 47.5 depending on the book. It’s expected to be a rock fight between two teams that have struggled to move the ball.

The Falcons have gotten better quarterback play this season out of Matt McDonald, who is completing 58.6% of his passes while throwing 16 touchdowns to just three interceptions. He still isn’t a difference maker at the position, however, and the offense is mustering just 337.6 total yards per game on a measly 4.9 yards per play. 

Western Michigan isn’t very good on either side of the ball and it shouldn’t be shocking that it's been in some low-scoring affairs in conference play. In its three conference games in October, it mustered 23 points in a blowout loss to Eastern Michigan, 14 points (including six turnovers) against Ohio, and 16 against Western Michigan. 

The Broncos will have a tough time putting points up in bunches against a Bowling Green defense that creates a lot of problems up front. The Falcons rank 14th in HAVOC led by a strong front seven spearheaded by defensive end Karl Brooks — who had 7.5 sacks and 12 tackles for loss.

Western Michigan vs Bowling Green betting trend to know

The Under is 7-2 in the last nine meetings between these two teams. Find more NCAA betting trends for Western Michigan vs. Bowling Green.

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