Western Michigan vs Michigan State Odds, Picks and Predictions: Spartans Shine Bright in Cross-State Clash

After the Michigan State Spartans’ surprise start to the 2021 season and the subsequent payday given to head coach Mel Tucker, the encore is going to be an uphill climb. 

Nonetheless, though the Western Michigan Broncos hardly had a disappointing 2021, they do not return much production this year, which will make an upset on Friday rather unlikely.

Here are our free college football picks and predictions for Western Michigan vs. Michigan State on September 2, with kickoff set for 7:00 p.m. ET.

Western Michigan vs Michigan State odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Spartans opened as 17.5-point favorites in late May, a line that did not move until August, at which point it moved up to -18.5 right away and then -22.5 this week. The total hit the boards at 54.5 back in May, and it has not moved aside from a few moments dabbling at 54.0.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full college football odds before placing your bets.

Western Michigan vs Michigan State predictions

• Prediction: Michigan State -22.5 (-110)
• Prediction: Under 54 (-110)
• Best bet: Michigan State 1H -13.5 (-110)

Predictions made on 8/31/2022 at 5:30 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Western Michigan vs Michigan State game info

• Location: Spartan Stadium, East Lansing, MI
• Date: Friday, September 2, 2022
• Kick-off: 7:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN

Western Michigan vs Michigan State betting preview

Weather

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Key injuries

Western Michigan: None.
Michigan State: None.
Find our latest College football injury reports.

Betting trend to know

Michigan State may have finished last year 3-2 straight-up in its final five games after that scorching 8-0 start, but the Spartans largely held up against the spread, finishing the season 9-2-2 ATS. Find more NCAA betting trends for Western Michigan vs. Michigan State.

Western Michigan vs Michigan State picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Spread analysis

Nothing that will be discussed here is news to the bookmakers. They ran this math long, long ago. They know more than we do. That’s why this handicapper continues to riff online while those bookmakers enjoy the exorbitant luxury of air conditioning in the desert.

That said, returning production should be emphasized this early in the season, especially when it presents such a stark contrast between two opponents. Per ESPN’s Bill Connelly, Western Michigan ranks No. 125 out of 131 teams by returning only 45 percent of its production from last season. Michigan State, meanwhile, sits at No. 31 with 72 percent returning.

A good chunk of what the Spartans lost traces to star running back Kenneth Walker III, who finished last season with 1,636 rushing yards and 18 rushing touchdowns. A transfer from Wake Forest just a year ago, Walker’s shoes are now filled by two more transfers in Jarek Broussard (from Colorado) and Jalen Berger (from Wisconsin).

Perhaps neither of them goes as wild this year as Walker did in 2021, but they should fare alright on Friday facing an overmatched Western Michigan defense that gave up 4.5 yards per rush last season and is now without its two best defensive linemen from that moderate showing.

And they will not need to do anything Herculean to outpace the Broncos’ offense, now led by sophomore quarterback Jack Salopek and his five career pass attempts.

Prediction: Michigan State -22.5 (-110 at BetMGM)

Over/Under analysis

This may be a lookahead spot for Western Michigan, as wild as that sounds in Week 1.  If the Broncos get gapped quickly on Friday, they may button up their offense so as to not give much intel to conference opponent Ball State, whom they play on Sept. 10. No coach would ever admit that, but getting an early-season MAC win will be important to head coach Tim Lester after struggling to a 4-4 conference mark in 2021.

Western Michigan is not going to be a distinct offensive threat to the Spartans in the first place, no disrespect to Salopek. Three of the Broncos’ Top 4 receivers from last year need to be replaced — though junior Corey Crooms could be a big-play threat, averaging 17.5 yards per catch with six touchdowns — and the offensive line returns only 36 career starts, not counting two FCS transfers.

Those FCS-transfer linemen may hold up fine against Ball State and in the MAC, but against a Michigan State defense returning seven of its Top 8 defenders, not to mention a defense that had 42 sacks last season, those linemen are likely to be overwhelmed.

Western Michigan is unlikely to reach the end zone twice. At that point, the Spartans may not score enough on their own to push this Over the total.

Prediction: Under 54 (-110 at Caesars)

Best bet

Michigan State is better than Western Michigan in every regard, but a spread this big in the season opener may be ripe to a backdoor cover. If the Broncos keep pressing, one Spartans’ fourth-quarter lapse could cost a cover of more than three touchdowns.

Those will not be concerns in the first half. This early in the season, leaning into first-half spreads of large favorites is more than a cautionary measure — it should also be a profitable one.

Pick: Michigan State first-half -13.5 (-110 at Caesars)

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