The USC Trojans host their first Big Ten conference game at the Coliseum as they welcome the Wisconsin Badgers to Southern California in Week 5.
The Trojans suffered a heartbreaking 27-24 loss at Michigan in Week 4 while Wisconsin enters fresh off a bye week. Will that scheduling dynamic play a part in our Wisconsin vs. USC predictions?
Read on for my best bet and college football picks for Wisconsin vs. USC on Saturday, September 28.
Wisconsin vs USC predictions
Early spread lean
Wisconsin +14.5 (-115 at BetMGM)
My analysis
Lincoln Riley’s USC Trojans were a forgotten-about team heading into the season after losing a Heisman winner at quarterback and forecasting as a middle-of-the-road team in the Big Ten. That shifted when the Trojans notched a 27-20 upset victory over LSU with a national audience watching.
That win left a lasting impression in a lot of people’s minds, but let’s not forget that LSU hasn’t looked like a very good football team through the first quarter of the season.
Things change quickly, and it seems the Trojans went from “forgotten-about” to “overvalued” in just a couple of weeks. USC went as high as -7 at the Big House last week before being bet down to -4. The Trojans would ultimately lose the game outright (27-24) while notching a meager 27% success rate on standard downs.
The Wisconsin Badgers have been left for dead after looking weak in back-to-back opening wins over Western Michigan (28-14) and South Dakota (27-13) followed by a 42-10 shellacking at the hands of Alabama. The Badgers have yet to cover a spread this season and will be without starting quarterback Tyler Van Dyke for the remainder of the season after he tore the ACL in his right knee in the loss to the Tide.
While I admit Wisconsin is having a season from hell so far this year, I think they’re the undervalued team in this matchup and will grab them plus the points.
This is a better scheduling spot for them coming off the bye and having time to fully implement new starting quarterback Braedyn Locke. USC suffered a letdown loss at Michigan, returns home for this contest, and then is back on the road to Minnesota next week.
We saw USC get pushed around up front by Michigan and while Wisconsin doesn’t have the same caliber of big uglies in the trenches, the offensive line has been performing well (42nd in line yards, 34th in stuff rate) for a ground game that ranks 15th in success rate per rush.
Wisconsin should be able to possess the ball long enough on offense to keep this one relatively close, so I’ll buy low on a team everyone is throwing in the trash.
Early Over/Under lean
Over 50.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
It might be natural to initially consider an Under play in this matchup as both teams are 1-2 O/U and Wisconsin will be playing with a backup quarterback who completed just 50% of his passes for 4.8 yards per attempt against Alabama.
Not so fast, my friend. Both teams have performed better offensively than defensively and this is a low number. I’ll buy the Over.
Locke was reportedly in a tight battle with Van Dyke for the starting gig throughout much of the offseason, so this may not be a huge downgrade under center. He already got his feet wet in a difficult matchup and had the bye week to prepare for this contest, so it’d be surprising if he doesn’t look like an improved version of himself in Week 5.
The Badgers rank 26th in success rate offensively and have been able to move the ball consistently despite that not leading to a boatload of points yet. USC made a massive improvement at defensive coordinator this offseason by bringing in D’Anton Lynn from UCLA, but the Trojans are still a mediocre bunch on that side of the ball (70th in EPA per play, 60th in success rate).
Miller Moss has mostly impressed at quarterback for the Trojans, completing 65% of his passes for 7.6 yards per attempt. He looks fully capable of running this Riley offense and faces a struggling Badgers defense that ranks 104th in EPA per play and 102nd in explosiveness.
USC has pushed the pace this year, ranking 18th in tempo while snapping the ball 2.46 times per minute. Wisconsin doesn’t usually operate quite so quickly, but the Badgers still rank a respectable 60th in tempo with 2.15 plays per minute.
Wisconsin vs USC live odds
Not intended for use in MA.
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