The end of an era may be near, with Aaron Rodgers taking the field in likely his final game in a New York Jets uniform, and perhaps his final game as a pro as well.
That calls for a look at the latest Aaron Rodgers odds as we look to project just how he’ll end what may be his final season in a matchup with the playoff-hopeful Miami Dolphins.
Though it doesn’t feel great, I’m going to be a buyer on Aaron Rodgers in my NFL picks for Sunday, January 5.
Aaron Rodgers player prop picks
- Best bet
Over 32.5 passing attempts
(-105 at BetMGM) - SGP Pick
Over 32.5 Passing Attempts
2+ Passing TD
(+290 at BetMGM)
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Aaron Rodgers prop pick
My best bet
Over 32.5 passing attempts (-105 at BetMGM)
My analysis
While Aaron Rodgers had a rough day at the office last week against the Buffalo Bills, throwing two interceptions and eventually sitting out the end of the game in a massive blowout, this game doesn’t necessarily look to be the same.
The Miami Dolphins offense has struggled this year, sure, but it’s sure to take a run-first approach with Tyler Huntley under center in the team’s last game.
Against a New York Jets team which has been one of the worst in the league at slowing teams down on the ground, this should lead to points – and we can take further solace in the fact that the Dolphins hung 32 points on this defense in Week 14.
With that, the Jets may be playing from behind here – which sweetens the pot on Rodgers’ passing attempts. Not only have the Dolphins ranked just 16th in DVOA against the pass this season, but they’ve yielded one of the seven highest pass-play rates in the league.
The Jets don’t need a second invitation to throw, ranking third in pass-play rate, and they leaned on Rodgers for 39 throws last time out against the Dolphins.
The veteran has now hit this mark in three of his last five, and with the added narrative of this game likely being his last with the Jets, he should be highly incentivized to throw some more.
Regardless of whether he’s auditioning for a new job next year or looking to go out on top, this shouldn’t be a game where New York stops throwing the ball now.
Aaron Rodgers same-game parlay
Aaron Rodgers Over 32.5 Passing Attempts
Aaron Rodgers 2+ passing touchdowns
Rodgers will additionally be looking to throw his 500th career touchdown pass, currently sitting on 499, and with plenty of throws expected, there’s a high likelihood he’ll hit the two-touchdown mark for a fourth time in seven games.
The Dolphins have given up two or more touchdown passes in three of their last five games as opponents continue to victimize their secondary, and if not for the Cleveland Browns’ disastrous quarterback situation last season, that streak could easily look even juicier.
It would seem unfathomable that Rodgers doesn’t at least end his season by throwing #500, and if we expect one then a second shouldn’t come at such high a price. There should be plenty for this offense to play for, with Garrett Wilson reportedly seeking a trade and the duo of Rodgers and Davante Adams potentially looking for a new home next season.
This offense should show up and end the season on a high note, and when this offense has been clicking, Rodgers’ numbers have ballooned
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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