The final ticket to the next round of the NFL playoffs is on the line in Arizona tonight.
The Los Angeles Rams take on the Minnesota Vikings in the last Wild Card Round matchup. There is plenty of firepower on the field, which gives bettors a surplus of options in anytime touchdown markets.
I look at this popular NFL player prop and give my best NFL picks to score a touchdown in the wild-card finale on Monday, January 13.
Vikings anytime touchdown pick
T.J. Hockenson anytime touchdown
+210 at Caesars
The Lions wrote a bit of a blueprint when it comes to slowing down the Minnesota Vikings’ air attack last week.
Detroit did a great job taking away Sam Darnold’s first two looks, which forced him to hurry through his progressions and target other options like WR3 Jalen Nailor, RB Aaron Jones, and TE T.J. Hockenson, who finished with eight targets but only two catches in Week 18.
Hockenson has quickly become Darnold’s safety blanket since returning to action in mid-November, drawing 62 passes — third on the team despite playing only 10 games. Even with that increased usage, Hockenson has yet to crack the end zone.
Minnesota faces a Los Angeles Rams defense that’s been burned by capable tight ends, tied for second with 106 receptions allowed and sitting fourth in yards given up to the position.
Los Angeles doesn’t have fantastic coverage linebackers (Jake Hummel ranks highest at PFF at 46th among all LBs) and the safeties will be helping out on slowing down those first looks in Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison. That leaves Hockenson to work against a soft middle of the field.
The Rams actually stiffen inside the red zone, bringing the sixth-lowest TD rate allowed in the RZ into the Wild Card Round. But if there is one soft spot, it’s against tight ends, with the position scoring seven touchdowns against L.A. this season.
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Rams anytime touchdown pick
Cooper Kupp anytime touchdown
+155 at Caesars
Cooper Kupp’s quiet finish to the regular season has his anytime touchdown odds creeping up after usually being priced between +125 and +150 in the second half of the season.
He’s a guy who finds another gear in the playoffs and is still a popular red-zone option for Matthew Stafford, finishing the season tied for second in RZ targets (10) on the team for six catches and four touchdowns inside the opponent’s 20-yard line. Kupp did this in only 12 games.
The shifty WR lines up primarily in the slot for the L.A. offense, which is a position the Vikings have struggled to contain. Minnesota has given up the sixth-most fantasy points to slot receivers and its zone-heavy schemes are something Kupp thrives against, seeing a significant uptick in PFF grading versus zone coverage.
Kupp caught five balls for 51 yards and a touchdown in the win over the Vikings in Week 8. I like a repeat performance tonight.
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