Bears vs Patriots Monday Night Football Picks and Predictions: Pats Offense Slow and Steady

A non-conference clash closes out NFL Week 7 when the Chicago Bears battle the New England Patriots on Monday Night Football.

New England is looking to extend its winning run to three games in this primetime matchup, but just which quarterback will be at the wheel Monday night is still up in the air. 

Starter Mac Jones appears to be on track for his first appearance since suffering a severe ankle sprain in Week 3, but the Patriots do have a capable backup QB in Bailey Zappe, who has held things down in Jones’ absence.

As for Chicago, it enters Week 7 on a three-game losing skid in which it has amassed only 41 total points. The Bears do have the rest edge, however, having last played 11 days ago on Thursday Night Football. However, NFL odds aren't falling for it with the Pats standing as 8.5-point faves.

I size up the points spread and Over/Under total for Monday Night Football and give my best NFL betting picks and predictions for Bears at Patriots on October 24.

Be sure to also check out Josh Inglis' favorite player prop picks for this MNF matchup.

Bears vs Patriots best odds

Bears vs Patriots picks and predictions

The potential return of Patriots QB Mac Jones has pumped this Over/Under up a bit as we head into the weekend, with the total jumping from an opener of 38.5 to as high as 40.5 points at some shops. And with that, comes a climb in New England’s team total.

The Pats are giving as much as nine points at home on Monday night and their team total is sitting as high as 25.5 points, given the uptick from this offense in recent outings. New England has pumped out outputs of 26, 24, 29, and 39 points in the past four games — ranking No. 8 in EPA per play since Week 3.

However, that pile of points has come against some disappointing defenses, with the likes of Detroit, Cleveland, Baltimore, and Green Bay ranked 32nd, 30th, 29th, and 27th in EPA allowed per play heading into Week 7. The Bears aren’t much better — sitting 20th overall in that advanced metric — but are the best stop unit New England has faced in a while.

Chicago gives up the bulk of points early on but stiffens in the final 30 minutes, owning the eighth lowest EPA per play allowed in second halves and is No. 6 in 2H DVOA (versus 32nd 1H DVOA). That very much falls into the game script for Monday night, as New England could jump out to an early lead as big home chalk and go ground-heavy in the final two frames to chew up the clock and close out the win. 

The Patriots are not only returning Jones under center but also getting RB Damien Harris back, who joins Rhamondre Stevenson for a potent backfield combo that could see a ton of run on Monday night. Chicago has an underrated pass rush, with the eighth-highest pressure rate in the league (25.1%) but has trouble slowing down ball carriers. It sits 27th in Run Defense DVOA at Football Outsiders. 

So even with Jones bringing a deeper threat in the passing game (10.3 intended air yards/attempt vs. 6.5 with Zappe), New England may not utilize that much, considering the Bears’ pass pressure will force Jones and his bum ankle to get rid of the ball quickly and the Patriots’ easy option to dominate with the ground game. New England has handed off on 54.19% of snaps the past three contests — fourth most in that span.

That ability to run the ball and control tempo plays into what is already projected to be a very slow pace in the Week 7 finale. According to Derek Carty’s BLITZ projections while speaking with our Josh Inglis on this game, the Monday nighter is pegged to be the slowest Week 7 contest on the board.

New England enters this game No. 4 in time of possession (31:27) but just 22nd in plays per game, snapping the ball every 30.51 seconds — second slowest pace in the NFL. Chicago is 20th in seconds per play and sits 31st in plays per game (55.8), also rolling out a plodding pace with the football.

Monday’s weather could also put a damper on scoring, with the forecast calling for an 80% chance of rain and game-time temperature feeling like 54 degrees. And with this Monday matchup setting up a short week for Bill Belichick’s crew ahead of an important AFC East road trip to play the N.Y. Jets next Sunday, the Patriots could keep it simple and safe in the second half.

My best bet: Patriots team total Under 25.5 (-110 at bet365)

Bears vs Patriots spread analysis

The lookahead line for this matchup set back in the summer was New England -6.5, which wasn’t too far off the official Week 7 opener last Sunday night. Oddsmakers installed the Patriots as 7-point home chalk and that spread quickly rose to -7.5 in the first hours of action.

With the public perception of Chicago at a season low following its embarrassing 12-7 loss to Washington on Thursday Night Football, and New England coming off a sound 38-15 win over Cleveland, the market piled on the Pats and pushed this spread as high as -9 as the weekend grew closer.

Not only is a dud of an offense working against the Bears, but the opening seven weeks of football have been busy. Chicago will be playing its third road game in the past four weeks and its fourth away tilt in the opening seven weeks of the 2022 season. New England faced a similar road-heavy stretch but is back home in Gillette Stadium for just the third time this year.

There has been buyback on the Bears at that peak point spread and most books are dealing New England between -8 and -8.5 — though one renowned online book is as low as Chicago +7.5. While Jones is currently listed as questionable, an official announcement of his expected return to QB1 could bump this spread back toward New England -9. 

According to DraftKings sportsbooks, 69% of ticket count is on the Patriots along with 72% of the handle. Our Covers Consensus shows 66% of picks on the host Patriots for Monday Night Football. New England has covered in three straight games (3-2-1 ATS overall) while Chicago is just 2-3-1 against the spread on the season.

Bears vs Patriots Over/Under analysis

This look-ahead Over/Under number was set at 42.5 points in the offseason, with low offensive expectations for either team. And given the Bears’ offensive ineptitude and the resurgence of the Patriots' defense, this Week 7 total officially opened as low as 38.5 points last Sunday.

Chicago has played Under in four of its six games in 2022, lugging an attack that ranks out just 30th in Offensive DVOA at Football Outsiders and is averaging only 0.233 points per play during this three-game slump.

The Bears do provide a bit more pushback in terms of defensive measurement, sitting No. 19th in Defensive DVOA and holding four of six foes to 20 points or less.

On the other sideline, New England’s defense remains the backbone of the franchise, sitting No. 7 in Defensive DVOA and checking foes to an NFL-low 0.208 points per play over the last three contests. The Pats are 3-3 O/U on the year, topping the total in three of their last four showings.

Action has shown up on the Over for this short total, bumping the number as high as 40.5 points. DraftKings sportsbooks are reporting 62% of bets and 63% of handle backing the Under on Monday. Cover Consensus shows a more split take on the total, with 51% of picks on the Over.

Bears vs Patriots betting trend to know

Both the Bears and Patriots trend toward the Under in non-conference competition, with Chicago going 4-10 Over/Under against the AFC since 2019 and New England owning a 4-11 O/U count when taking on NFC foes in that same span. Find more NFL betting trends for Bears vs. Patriots.

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