Bengals vs Browns MNF Prop Bets: Mixon's Due Against Weak Cleveland Rush Defense

The battle of Ohio has many moving pieces Monday night, but the Ja'Marr Chase-less Bengals enter as a 3-point road favorite vs. the Cleveland Browns, who have dropped four straight.

Without Chase, the Bengals and Joe Burrow will move that target share somewhere else but don't be surprised if Zac Taylor leans on the run vs. a bad Cleveland run defense.

Find out my best NFL prop picks for Monday Night Football's battle between the Bengals and the Browns.  

Bengals vs Browns props

• Mixon Over 65.5 rushing yards
• Boyd longest reception Over 23.5 yards
• Peoples-Jones Over 44.5 receiving yards

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Bengals vs Browns MNF props

Say it ain't so Joe

Last week, the Ravens ran the ball 70% of the time vs. this Cleveland defense, and although the quality wasn’t great, Baltimore moved the sticks and dominated the time of possession by 10 minutes.

Zac Taylor has loved to run Joe Mixon to poor results all year, and even last week, with Joe Burrow throwing for over 450 yards, Mixon still had 17 carries. 

The running back currently sits eighth in football in carries per game at 17.29. With Ja’Marr Chase out and lineman La’el Collins possibly out, it would make sense for Taylor to stay committed to the run vs. a dangerous Cleveland pass rush.

Cleveland’s rush defense ranks dead last in EPA/rush, and with Burrow getting 23 first downs per game (6th) over the last three weeks, there will be plenty of 1st and 10s that Taylor can run Mixon up the middle for three or four yards.

Through seven weeks, we’ve seen the floor on Mixon, which is his current 3.3 yards per carry. I’m not expecting him to go off, but in a tough divisional matchup vs. a paper-soft rush defense that has to respect Burrow, Mixon will have a healthy role and should top his rushing total of 65.5 yards.

THE BLITZ is projecting more than 19 carries and I'd prefer to take his Over rushing attempts at 16.5 or better when that market opens.

Joe Mixon Prop: Over 65.5 rushing yards (-110)

Backing Boyd

With Ja’Marr Chase out, Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins will have larger target shares Monday, but it’s the slot receiver Boyd who I’m targeting to go Over his longest reception.

Boyd has been thriving over the last two weeks catching 14 of his 15 targets for 222 yards and a score. His target share isn’t off the charts at 14.2%, but the slot receiver’s aDOT of 10.05 is the longest of the three starting receivers.

His yards after the catch per reception were also the best of the trio. In short, Boyd has been turning his moderate volume into long gains, and that’s a trend I expect to continue Monday night.

The pairing of John Johnson and Grant Delpit at safety for the Browns is nothing to brag about, as neither ranks in the top half at their position in coverage, per Pro Football Focus. The potential absence of Denzel Ward (concussion) doesn’t help either.

The Browns have been giving up big plays through the air all season, and their 11.8 yards per reception allowed ranks 31st in the league. Boyd and a dialed-in Burrow will have plenty of chances to top his longest reception of 23.5 yards Monday night. 

Despite 18 fewer catches than Chase, Boyd is tied for the team-high with eight grabs of 20 yards or longer, and the slot receiver has at least one 20-plus yard catch in five of his seven games to date.

Tyler Boyd Prop: Over 23.5 yards longest reception (-115)

The people's Peoples

David Njoku has been ruled out for Monday's contest. With Amari Cooper likely getting locked up with Cincinnati corner Chidobe Awuzie, Donovan Peoples-Jones could be a much bigger part of the Cleveland passing attack in Week 8.

First off, a potential negative game script is in DPJ’s favor Monday night, with Cleveland entering as 3-point dogs. Secondly, Awuzie has been a great lock-down corner, allowing just a 40% completion rate to opposing WR1s and a 60.9 QBR when targeted.

DPJ will likely see Eli Apple if he even plays, as the corner is losing trust with his coaches after allowing a 75-yard touchdown last week to Damiere Byrd.

The No. 2 wideout in Cleveland has a healthy 18.9% target share on the season but saw 24% of Jacoby Brissett’s passes last week on his way for six catches for 71 yards. He wasn’t getting targeted deep downfield, with an average of 9.8 air yards per catch but caught all six of his targets.

He should see a similar volume this week, and with a yardage total of just 44.5 yards, this is one of my favorite Overs on the MNF card.

Donovan Peoples-Jones Prop: Over 44.5 receiving yards (-110) 

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