Early Chiefs vs Eagles Predictions, Picks, and Odds for Super Bowl 59

The Chiefs are favored by just a couple of points against the Eagles in Super Bowl 59 and Jason Logan favors KC as it looks to win a third straight title. The Under on 49.5 is also in play.

Jason Logan: Senior Betting Analyst at Covers
Jason Logan • Senior Betting Analyst
Jan 26, 2025 • 23:02 ET • 4 min read
Patrick Mahomes Kansas City Chiefs NFL
Photo By - Imagn Images. Patirck Mahomes gets ready to spike the football after scoring a touchdown vs. Buffalo.

Super Bowl LIX pits the Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs against each other for the second time in three years.

The Chiefs edged the Eagles 38-35 in Super Bowl LVII and opened as slight favorites for this rematch in New Orleans. 

I look into the opening Super Bowl odds and give my early NFL picks, leans, and predictions for Chiefs vs. Eagles on Sunday, February 9.

Chiefs vs Eagles predictions

Early spread lean
Chiefs -2 (-110 at Caesars)

My analysis

The Kansas City Chiefs were 1.5-point favorites on look-ahead lines, and after escaping with the win over Buffalo in the AFC Championship, they opened as short as -1 and quickly climbed as high as -2.

Kansas City has plenty of positives heading into this rematch with the Philadelphia Eagles.

The coaching combo of Andy Reid and Steve Spagnuolo has the advantage over Nick Sirianni, Kellen Moore, and Vic Fangio. 

The quarterback battle obviously goes to Patrick Mahomes, who has proven he’s among the all-time greats and well above Eagles QB Jalen Hurts

And when it comes to Super Bowl experience, KC also has the advantage: not only in terms of navigating the two-week ramp-up to SBLIX but also in holding that psychological edge over the Eagles after ripping their hearts out in Super Bowl LVII.

All that said…

My first bet for Super Bowl LIX was taking Kansas City -120 to win outright on the moneyline (now -130), rather than laying the short points. This spread is on the other side of a one-point margin. That’s the seventh-most frequent finish in NFL games and I’d much rather avoid any hooks and just bet KC outright.

Early Over/Under lean
Under 49.5 points (-110 at Caesars)

My analysis

The Over is always the most popular pick for Super Bowl games, with the gambling public wishing for an exciting and high-scoring showcase. Knowing this, there’s always a temptation to take the Under and go against an inflated number.

Look-ahead lines had this Big Game pairing pegged with a total of 45.5 points before Philadelphia hung 55 on Washington in the NFC Championship. And even after that result, the look-ahead line before the AFC title game was 48.5 O/U.

You have two very good defenses showing up in the Big Easy, with Fangio’s tricky schemes and Spags’ blitz-heavy attack ranking among the better stop units in the second half of the schedule. On top of that, both the Eagles and Chiefs can play a methodical offensive tempo and control possession. 

I’m leaning Under at 49.5 but hoping this total will tick up, with that public push on the Over. Once I see it hit the key number of 50, I'll be much more convinced to bet the Under.

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Jason Logan Senior Industry Analyst Covers.com
Senior Betting Analyst

In his 20 years with Covers, lead NFL betting analyst “JLo” has seen it all and bet it all. Through the wild west of early Internet gambling to lobbying for legalized sports betting to our brave new wagering world, Jason has been a consistent source of actionable info and entertainment for squares and sharps alike.

Since joining the Covers team back in 2005, he’s honed his handicapping skills to provide audiences with the most thorough insights, blending traditional capping methods with advanced modelling and predictive analysis. Jason has studied the ins and outs of the sports betting business, learning from some of the most successful gamblers in the industry and the biggest sportsbook operators on the planet.

He is under center for Covers during NFL season as our top NFL expert, taking the points in his infamous “NFL Underdogs” column and representing the Covers Community at the Super Bowl. While he lives for football season, Jason’s first love is basketball and that shows in his in-depth NBA, NCAA, and WNBA betting breakdowns.

On top of being a mainstay in media from coast to coast – WPIX, PHL17, Fox 5 San Diego, WGNO, TSN, SportsNet, ESPN Radio – he’s had his analysis featured in USA Today, MSNBC, ESPN, the Wall Street Journal, CBS, Bloomberg, the L.A. Times, the New York Times and other major publications. You can also find JLo stuffing all the top picks and predictions he can into 10 minutes as the host of Covers’ flagship podcast, The Sharp 600.

His best advice for bettors new and old is “Handicapping isn’t a ‘one size fits all’ process. The impact and importance of information varies from bet to bet. Treat each wager different than the last.”

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