A Monday Night Football meeting between the Cincinnati Bengals and Dallas Cowboys looked a lot sexier when the NFL Week 14 schedule was released back in the spring.
Flash forward to December, and neither team is playoff-bound after disappointing 2024 campaigns. But hey, that’s why we have sports betting.
My early NFL picks, leans, and predictions for Bengals vs Cowboys on Monday, December 9 are confused by the lofty spread in Cincy's favor.
Bengals vs Cowboys predictions
Early spread lean
Cowboys +6.5 (-120 at FanDuel)
My analysis
The Dallas Cowboys aren’t great, but the Cincinnati Bengals shouldn’t be laying 6.5 points to anyone right now, especially on the road.
Can we just agree that Cincinnati stinks? The Bengals have lost three straight and have only one win since Week 8, yet they continue to get priced like a winning football team. Cincy has been a favorite in four of its last six games with one of those underdog lines closing at +1.
A potent scoring attack keeps Cincinnati competitive, having put up tallies of 27, 34, and 38 points the past three games — yet that wasn’t enough to overcome a defense that has sunk to the bottom of the NFL.
The Bengals have allowed 113 points in those last three showings, with the defense now ranked 30th in EPA allowed per play and opponent success rate per snap.
Dallas isn’t a powerhouse with the football, especially with QB1 Dak Prescott out for the season, but the Cowboys have started to click offensively under backup Cooper Rush. The Cowboys have won two straight contests, scoring 27 and 34 points in those victories.
As for the Dallas defense, it’s played much better in recent weeks — despite what the scoreboards might say. After dwelling near the bottom of the advanced defensive metrics for most of the season, the return of star pass rusher Micah Parsons has helped propel the Cowboys to 10th in EPA allowed per play since Week 10.
Dallas enters this Monday Night Football matchup with a rest and preparation edge at home, having won on Thanksgiving Thursday. The Bengals, on the other hand, are coming off a crushing loss to the Steelers at home on Sunday.
If you don’t trust Cincinnati, snag Dallas with the extra half-point on the key number of six.
Early Over/Under lean
Over 49.5 (-105 at FanDuel)
My analysis
My Week 14 "Bet Now, Bet Later" article prodded anyone interested in the Over to take it right away at that opening number of 47.5 points.
That was sound advice, as this number is now as high as 49.5 and could likely land on the other side of 50 points by the time things kick off on Monday night.
The Bengals offense is piling on the points and the Joe Burrow-to-Ja’Marr Chase connection is clicking, and that QB/WR combo will give the Dallas secondary fits. The Cowboys have allowed nine home-run plays of 40 or more yards this season (fourth most) and give up the second-highest yards per pass attempt to rival quarterbacks.
Cincinnati’s defense is just as bad with containing anything over the top, watching foes connect for 39 completions of 20 yards or more and six dingers of 40-plus. The Bengals have been especially bad versus the pass during this three-game skid, ranked 31st in opponent success rate per dropback (56.8%).
These teams have a combined Over/Under record of 17-7 on the season. The best of the number has long sailed, but this is an Over-or-nothing bet for me.
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Bengals vs Cowboys live odds
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