Browns vs Broncos MNF Prop Bets: Hey Jeudy

The Denver Broncos look to continue their playoff push when they host the Cleveland Browns on Monday Night Football at Empower Field at Mile High.

With both teams coming off division wins led by strong quarterback play, I’m focusing on both of the passing attacks in my Browns vs. Broncos player props and NFL picks for Monday Night Football on December 2.

Browns vs Broncos MNF props

• Bo Nix Over 21.5 completions (-106 at FanDuel)
• Jameis Winston Under 230.5 passing yards (-113 at FanDuel)
•  Jerry Jeudy Over 4.5 receptions (-114 at FanDuel)

Read full analysis of each pick.

Browns vs Broncos MNF props

Prop bet #1: Bo Nix Over 21.5 completions

-106 at FanDuel

As Denver Broncos QB Bo Nix makes a push to overtake Jayden Daniels as the Offensive Rookie of the Year odds favorite, he’s poised to have another efficient game against an up-and-down Cleveland Browns defense.

While Nix may be a polarizing quarterback due to his lack of explosive passing plays, he’s running Sean Payton’s offense at a high level and it’s leading to plenty of completions. Heading into Week 13, Nix was fifth in the NFL in completions (259) and averaging 21.6 per game.

He’s been completing passes at an even higher clip of late, with 22 or more in four of his last five games while averaging 24.4 per game.

That production should continue against a Browns defense that’s just 19th in EPA per dropback and allowing the eighth-highest QB rating to opponents (100.1). Cleveland has allowed opposing starting QBs to complete 21 passes in each of its last two games, but Nix’s style of play lends to better completion rates than both Russell Wilson and Derek Carr.

Nix doesn’t go big play hunting and his high floor is thanks to his willingness to hit a layup rather than a home run. He’s averaging just 6.4 yards per attempt this season, which is tied for the 29th in the NFL, and he’s 23rd in ADOT (8.0).

Against a flimsy Browns defense, his short game should thrive and allow him to go Over 21.5 completions for the fourth straight game.

Prop bet #2: Jameis Winston Under 230.5 passing yards

-113 at FanDuel

On Thursday Night Football last week, Jameis Winston played hero and upset the Pittsburgh Steelers' vaunted defense. However, he’s in for an equally challenging defensive matchup in Denver.

The Broncos are No. 2 in the NFL in EPA per play on defense, and No. 1 in EPA per dropback. Denver’s allowing just 199.8 passing yards per game, the eighth-fewest in the NFL. 

That’s why it’s slightly surprising to see Winston’s passing yards line so high against Vance Joseph’s defense. Against a similarly ferocious defense last week, Winston threw for 219 yards and while the snow was a factor, it also allowed the Browns to put Pittsburgh’s defense on skates more than a few times.

Cleveland will have to deal with one of the NFL’s best secondaries, and creating separation against Patrick Surtain II & Co. isn’t easy. Surtain, Riley Moss, and Ja'Quan Mcmillian have a combined 37 coverage stops this season and 15 forced incompletions.

So even when receivers are catching passes against this trio, they aren’t putting up a ton of yards, and it helps that the front seven has been one of the best in the league, too.

The Broncos lead the NFL in sacks (44), which has helped them allow only 13 touchdown passes, eighth-fewest in the NFL. With a plethora of pass rushers to lean on, Denver will also have the benefit of keeping its attack fresh.

And there’s not a ton of drop-off from the starting unit to the bullpen. Nik Bonitto, Jonathon Cooper, Zach Allen, John Franklin-Myers, Jonah Ellis, and Malcolm Roach all have double-digit pressures this season and a pass rush win rate of 7.6% or better.

With Winston under fire and throwing at a playmaking secondary, hitting 231 yards is going to be a tough task.

Prop bet #3: Jerry Jeudy Over 4.5 receptions

-114 at FanDuel

While I don’t expect Winston to put big-time numbers, I do think he’ll be looking to his favorite target often. 

In four starts with Winston at QB, Jerry Jeudy has been a star. He’s averaging six receptions per game for 94.7 yards on nine targets and it’s he’s become the most consistent playmaker for Kevin Stefanski.

With Winston and Jeudy’s chemistry, it’s safe to assume Stefanski will want to get his best receiver plenty of looks in a game where the Browns are 5.5-point underdogs. 

Despite Denver’s secondary being one of the best, Jeudy’s recent volume should help him catch five-plus passes for the fifth straight game, regardless of how many receiving yards he puts up.

Jeudy is beginning to live up to the first-round pick Denver spent on him in 2020 coming out of Alabama. He’s averaged over 2.8 yards per route run in each of his last two games and Winston has a better than 118.0 QB rating in both those games when targeting Jeudy.

Winston knows where to go when he needs a play with Jeudy leading the team in targets (75), receptions (45), yards (645), and yards per route run (1.43). So look for him to get a little revenge on his former team.

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