Sunday Night Football is the setting for a huge AFC West war in Week 14. The Los Angeles Chargers come to Arrowhead Stadium to battle the Kansas City Chiefs, who can clinch the division with a victory in primetime.
My early Chargers vs. Chiefs predictions dissect the opening odds and initial line moves, giving my early NFL picks for December 8.
Chargers vs Chiefs predictions
Early spread lean
Chargers +3.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
If you read my Bet Now, Bet Later article that comes out on Covers on Sunday nights, you’ll see I suggested snatching up the Los Angeles Chargers when they opened as 4.5-point road underdogs. Hopefully, you listened as that spread has dropped a full point to Bolts +3.5.
This early action on Los Angeles has to do with the Chargers’ recent winning ways but also the Kansas City Chiefs' bad habit of keeping things close — no matter the competition.
The Chiefs are 5-1 SU in their last six games, with each of those five wins coming by seven points or less. Those nail-biters haven’t been kind to KC bettors, with the defending champs going 0-6 against the spread in that span. The market continues to price Kansas City according to its record but not by the quality of those wins.
Outside of a loss at Buffalo in Week 11, this Sunday night homestand against the Chargers is the toughest opponent Kansas City has faced in a while. Los Angeles is a solid two-way team with a strong defense backed by a run-heavy playbook that can put the pace of SNF’s game in the sand.
The Bolts fell 17-10 to Kansas City in SoFi Stadium back in Week 4, but the Chargers have come a long way since that last meeting. Los Angeles is fully integrated into new head coach Jim Harbaugh’s systems and has won five of its last six, with the lone loss coming against Baltimore.
There are some injuries on the Chargers offense to keep an eye on in Week 14. Standout rookie WR Ladd McConkey left Week 13 with a knee injury, but it doesn’t appear to be serious. Running back J.K. Dobbins was also placed on IR this weekend with a knee injury.
If you like L.A. in this spot, or you just don’t trust your money with the Chiefs, grab the underdog at +3.5. The vig on Chiefs -3.5 is slimming, and we could see a field goal spread later in the week.
Early Over/Under lean
Over 43.5 points (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
This Over/Under opened at 44.5 points and trimmed to 43.5 O/U in the first 12 hours of action.
A December game in Arrowhead Stadium should have you immediately running to the extended forecast for Sunday night. However, some models call for a balmy night in Kansas City (at least for this time of the year), with temperatures in the high 40s, while other forecasts show a threat of rain.
We have two offenses led by top-tier quarterbacks in Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert. While these current scoring attacks pale in comparison to their past iterations — as we’re used to totals around 50 points in this rivalry — these two QBs can keep the chains moving.
This Chiefs defense is also a concern for anyone looking to bet on KC or the Under. Kansas City’s stop unit has slid dramatically over the past six games, going from No. 8 in EPA per play in the opening eight weeks to 30th since Week 9.
Kansas City has watched pop-gun attacks like Las Vegas, Carolina, and a depleted Tampa Bay receiving corps put up points against in this six-game span. That’s led to a 4-2 Over/Under count since Week 9 after Kansas City opened the year on a 2-4 O/U run.
The Chargers’ offense can come at you from everywhere, with the playbook starting to lean toward the passing game after being anchored in the run to start Harbaugh’s tenure. Los Angeles is coming off a disjointed effort in the win over Atlanta, scoring just 17 points, but had posted efforts of 23, 26, 27, 27, and 34 points in the five games prior.
With this total shrinking through the key number of 44 points, I’m leaning toward the Over on Sunday Night Football.
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Chargers vs Chiefs live odds
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