Bengals vs Ravens Predictions, Picks and Odds for Thursday Night Football

The AFC North is under the prime-time lights in Week 10, with the Baltimore Ravens hosting the Cincinnati Bengals on Thursday Night Football.

Baltimore is off and running after a stumble out of the blocks, picking up wins in six of its last seven games. But my Bengals vs. Ravens predictions anticipate Cincinnati to do its best to stay within striking distance of its divisional rival.

Read on as I give my best NFL picks on November 6 with kick-off set for 8:15 p.m. ET at M&T Bank Stadium.

For more, check out Sam Farley's Lamar Jackson odds spotlight and my Bengals vs. Ravens anytime touchdown scorer picks.

Bengals vs Ravens TNF prediction

Who will win Thursday Night Football?

The NFL odds give the Ravens a 73% implied win probability on Thursday Night Football. While Baltimore owns the better record, I’m not convinced that it’s that much better than the Bengals. Cincinnati definitely needs this victory much more as it fights to stay in the postseason hunt and most of these AFC North matchups do come down to the wire.

Baltimore has won four of the last six meetings with Cincy and three of those victories have been by a field goal or less. It would not shock me to see the Bengals take a win on the road on Thursday Night Football.

My Bengals vs Ravens TNF best bet

Bengals +6.5 (-120 at FanDuel)

My analysis

When all sides are healthy, most AFC North matchups come with a spread around a field goal. But, bookies believe the Baltimore Ravens are above and beyond their divisional foes in Week 10, pegging them as a near touchdown fave at home tonight.

While the standings say one thing, sizing up these teams says another. The Ravens and Cincinnati Bengals have great quarterbacks, explosive offenses, and “meh” defenses. 

We saw just that on display in Week 5 when Baltimore edged Cincinnati in a wild 41-38 overtime thriller at Paycor Stadium. The Ravens won with a field goal in the extra frame, which was just enough to cover the -2.5 on the road.

That result was a rare cover for the favorite in these grudge matches. Going back to 2015, underdogs cover at a 56% clip in AFC North divisional games. And when you take the bad-news Cleveland Browns out of the equation, the three remaining members are a collective 68% against the spread as a pup in divisional dances.

Baltimore’s defense has sputtered in recent games and is far from the historic highs of Mike Macdonald’s stop unit in 2023. The Ravens rank 29th in EPA allowed per dropback and 23rd in opponent success rate per pass and face a Cincy air attack ranked Top 3 in the offensive flip of those advanced measurements.

What’s more, the Ravens’ second-half letdowns have burned bettors in 2024. Baltimore has taken its foot off the gas in the fourth quarter, giving up 42% of its total points allowed in the final 15 minutes. That’s a troublesome trend when laying a spread as big as Thursdays. 

While the Ravens covered as 9-point chalk against Denver last Sunday, John Harbaugh’s team is just 5-14-1 ATS (27%) when laying six or more points since 2021. The Bengals, with Joe Burrow as a massive step up in QB competition (he hung almost 400 yards and five TDs on them in Week 5), are 11-7 ATS as a dog in that same span including 4-1 ATS when getting six or more points.

Bengals vs Ravens TNF same-game parlay (SGP)

Bengals +6.5

Over 52.5

Ja’Marr Chase anytime touchdown

+350 at FanDuel

This line is way too big for a divisional rivalry like this, especially when you consider the Ravens’ weakness vs. the pass.

These teams put up almost 80 points in Week 5 and I don’t see why they can’t top this total, given the firepower on the field.

Chase faces a Ravens secondary ranked in the Bottom 10 in most advanced defensive metrics. He scored twice in the Week 5 shootout.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Bengals vs Ravens odds

Bengals vs Ravens live odds

Bengals vs Ravens opening odds

• Spread: Cincinnati +6 | Baltimore -6
• Moneyline: Cincinnati +225 | Baltimore -275
• Over/Under: Over 51.5 (-110) | Under 51.5 (-110)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel

Bengals vs Ravens spread and Over/Under analysis

• After Week 9, oddsmakers opened Baltimore as a 6.5-point home favorite for Thursday Night Football. We saw this spread dip to as low as -5.5 at some sharper books and we’re seeing books between -6 and -6.5 on Wednesday.

• The Over/Under total opened as short as 51.5 points and instantly took money on the Over, driving this number to as high as 53 points. These rivals combined for almost 1,000 yards and 79 points in Week 5, blowing away the closing total of 48.5 O/U.

• Injuries to watch for Cincinnati are WR Tee Higgins and OL Orlando Brown. Baltimore added WR Diontae Johnson and CB Tre'Davious White at the trade deadline. Their involvement on the short week is unknown.

• According to our Covers Consensus tool, 52% of users are picking the Bengals to cover the spread while 66% of users expect the game to go Over the projected point total.

• It's a similar story at FanDuel, with the sportsbook reporting 55% of bettors are picking the Bengals to cover the spread while 71% of tickets are on the Over. Meanwhile, 57% of tickets and 62% of handle are on the Ravens moneyline.

Bengals vs Ravens betting trend to know

Excluding the horrible Browns, underdogs are 47-22-2 ATS (68%) in AFC North divisional matchups since 2015. Find more NFL betting trends for Bengals vs. Ravens.

How to watch Bengals vs Ravens on TNF

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Bengals vs Ravens latest injuries

Bengals vs Ravens weather

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