All good things must come to an end.
The good thing I'm referring to is "winning by betting on NFL player props," as after an 8-2 stretch, reality hit like a sack of bricks with a 1-4 Week 7.
However, this is no time to dwell on the past; we need to learn from our mistakes — and what I've learned is:
- Don't bet on receivers with a yardage total above 90.
- Don't bet on running backs on bad offenses returning from a gruesome leg injury.
- Don't bet on the Tennessee Titans.
Simple rules, really, and I'm adhering to those with my Week 8 NFL picks — targeting a gunslinger against arguably the worst pass defense in the league, resurgent RBs to keep running over opponents, and the return of one of the electrifying QBs (for better or for worse).
Latest NFL prop picks
Williams o62.5 rush yards
(-113 at FanDuel)
Winston o227.5 pass yards
(-110 at bet365)
Hunt o66.5 rush yards
(-115 at Caesars)
Check out full analysis of picks below, or click here to view the full betting card.
NFL prop picks for Week 8
Javonte Williams Over 62.5 rush yards
Let's get right to it: The Carolina Panthers run defense is stanky. And not like a cool, swaggy stank; like a plug-your-nose-and-pull-the-collar-of-your-shirt-over-your-mouth kinda stank.
The Panthers have allowed a league-worst 133.3 rushing yards per game to running backs, are dead-last in run-stop win rate, and have given up 4.7 yards per carry (eighth-worst in the NFL) — despite giving up just four runs of 20+ yards.
They just consistently get gouged for positive runs every time, which is why I'm taking the Over on Javonte Williams' odds to top 61.5 rush yards.
Williams has established himself as the clear running option in the Denver Broncos backfield over the past few weeks, logging 13+ carries in three of Denver's last four games and getting 62% of all the backfield rushes in that span.
He averaged 75.3 yards and 5.3 ypc in those three games, with at least 61 yards in each, and has been able to consistently churn out positive yards when he runs, as highlighted by this graphic from Pro Football Focus:
Carolina has allowed five RBs to top 71+ yards in the last four weeks, and with Bryce Young back under center, the Panthers offense should struggle against a strong Denver defense — meaning the Broncos could also be in a run-heavy script in the second half, which only helps Williams' case.
Williams' rushing attempts total is at 14.5, so assuming he gets 15 carries at even 4.5 ypc, that's around 68 yards. If he gets even more work — or breaks a big run — then I like this even more.
Pick made on 10-25
Jameis Winston Over 227.5 pass yards
It's Jameis Winston time for the Cleveland Browns, and if we know anything about Jameis, it's that he's gonna throw the ball.
He's gonna throw it to his team.
He's gonna throw to the other team.
He'll sometimes throw it to absolutely nobody too, just to keep things spicy.
But mark my words, Winston is going to hyuck it — and I think he'll do it enough to top his passing yardage total against a Baltimore Ravens secondary that's... actually not very good.
The Ravens have allowed just over 308 passing yards to quarterbacks through seven weeks, the worst number in the NFL, with the second-highest yards per attempt, fourth-highest yards per completion, and ninth-worst completion rate.
They're in the bottom half of the league in QB pressure rate, blitz rate, and pass rush win rate. They've allowed three QBs to top 370 yards and six of seven opponents to top 269.
Cleveland can't run the ball and will likely be trailing by a fair margin in the second half, so Winston will be cut loose to sling it, and there's little risk of him being benched as Dorian Thompson-Robinson proved last week he still cannot throw the ball at an adequate NFL level.
Is this a garbage time special? Absolutely... but it's not about how you get there — it's about eating that W when the clock hits zero.
This could also be a good live betting opportunity, especially if he gets off to a slow start, so keep an eye on his passing total both, at halftime and heading into the fourth quarter.
Pick made on 10-25
Kareem Hunt Over 65.5 rush yards
The big story for the Kansas City Chiefs this week is the acquisition of wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins, but make no mistake: This team is predicated on running the ball and playing defense — so running back Kareem Hunt is again going to have a busy day against the Las Vegas Raiders.
Hunt has topped this number in all three of his games played (averaging 83 per week) this season, with his 63 carries the third-most in the league since Week 4... despite having a bye week in that span.
He'll get a chance to run over a Raiders defense that has allowed the ninth-most yards per game to RBs (107.4), has given up almost 91 yards per game to opposing lead backs, and has also given up the seventh-highest yards per rush attempt.
There should also be a boost with the game script, as the pitiful Raiders offense should get ravaged by an elite Chiefs defense, meaning we could see a lot of running in the latter stages of this game to protect a lead, kill the clock, and drive up his total.
Industry projections range as high as 77 yards for Hunt on Sunday, adding confidence that his resurgent season should continue.
Pick made on 10-24
Jordan Love Over 255.5 pass yards
The Green Bay Packers love to throw, and the Jacksonville Jaguars defense is bad against the pass. Considering the Pack have a quartet of wide receivers that can go off in any given week, betting any of them is dicey — but taking the Over on Jordan Love's odds stands out as the juicy bet.
Since coming back from injury, Love is averaging just 222 ypg in two matchups against the Texans and Rams (fourth and 15th fewest pass yards allowed per game), but averaged 323.5 against the Cardinals and Vikings (26th and 30th in yards).
The Jaguars are 31st in pass yards allowed.
Jacksonville surrenders 285 yards per game, with the highest average air yards per target, lowest blitz rate, and seventh-lowest QB pressure rate. Take away 186 yards allowed to Deshaun Watson (maybe the worst QB in football) in a rainy Week 2, and you're looking at about 302 yards per game.
Schematically, the Jags also play one of the highest rates of man-to-man coverage in the league, per PFF, while allowing a 68% completion rate and nearly 50% open-target rate while in man (both Bottom-10 marks) — with four receivers that are all tough matchups individually, Love will get his chance to throw to open guys.
Industry projections range as high as 273 for Love on Sunday, with an average of 262. The only real threat to this play is Green Bay gets a big lead (through running and/or turnovers) early and just coast to the finish, but I think he can do enough damage, even in three quarters, to get us over the hump.
Pick made on 10-24
Ty Chandler Over 19.5 rushing yards
The Minnesota Vikings follow a tough loss to Detroit on Sunday by going on the road to face the Los Angeles Rams on TNF.
With quarterback Sam Darnold starting to cool off from his hot early-season start, and with this being a short week, I'd expect the Vikings to lean on the running game, especially facing a weak Rams run defense.
Naturally, you'd assume that this is a play on RB1 Aaron Jones, but think again — I'm looking at backup Ty Chandler's odds to go Over a paltry rushing total of 19.5 yards.
Chandler's workload has fluctuated a bit this season, logging two games with double-digit carries, four with 7+ runs, and two with three or fewer. However, with the 29-year-old Jones only getting one full practice this week due to a hamstring ailment — and not being the most durable back anyway — I expect a more balanced workload after Jones played 72% of the snaps (his second-highest number of the year) just four days ago.
That puts Chandler in a prime spot to put in work against a Rams defense that has allowed the fifth-most yards per game to RBs and has allowed at least 122 rushing yards overall in all six of its contests.
Chandler has averaged 35.5 yards per game in the four weeks he received at least seven rush attempts, and industry projections average about 26 yards for him tonight, ranging as high as 30 yards.
We've also seen backup RBs consistently get work for visiting teams on TNF so far this season: Excluding Week 1 (season opener) and Week 6 (an RB injury skews the data), we've seen the road team's RB2 average 6.2 carries and 31.2 yards in those games, with 29+ yards in four of those five contests.
Pick made on 10-24
NFL Week 8 prop betting card
- Ty Chandler Over 19.5 rushing yards (-110)
- Jordan Love Over 255.5 pass yards (-115)
- Kareem Hunt Over 65.5 rush yards (-115)
- Jameis Winston Over 227.5 pass yards (-110)
- Javonte Williams Over 62.5 rush yards (-113)
Last week: 1-4, -3.17 units
Season: 18-17, -0.46 units
Not intended for use in MA.
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