Happy Thanksgiving! A wonderful time full of friends, food, and football.
While you're filling up on heaping sides of stuffing, mashed potatoes, and cornbread (and if you haven't added cornbread to your spread, try it out and you're welcome), I'll be feasting on NFL best bets and player props.
I'm kicking things off with two NFL player props for today, plus a best bet for Sunday as well — and I'll add a few more props for Week 13 as we head into the weekend.
NFL Week 13 prop picks
Gibbs long rush o17.5 yards (-105)
Rush o205.5 pass yards (-110)
Collins long reception o27.5 yards (-115)
Click on each pick to see full analysis, or click here to view the full betting card.
NFL best bets and prop picks for Week 13
Jahmyr Gibbs longest rush Over 17.5 yards (-105)
Jahmyr Gibbs has lived up to his "Sonic" nickname, terrorizing opposing defenses with his explosiveness: He's third among all RBs in runs of 10+ yards, 13th in yards after contact, and first in designed runs of 15+ yards.
He's a threat to break any run into a monster gain — and gets ample opportunities in the Detroit Lions' run-heavy offense — and has recorded a run of 18+ yards in eight of his last 10 games (with his two misses having long runs of 15 and 17 yards).
Gibbs and the Lions kick off today's festivities with a 12:30 p.m. game against the Chicago Bears, who have surrendered 151 yards per game over its last five contests, with eight runs of 15+ yards allowed over that span, plus starting safety Elijah Hicks is questionable with an ankle injury.
Detroit may also opt to lean on Gibbs today, as his backfield partner David Montgomery is nursing a shoulder injury and this is a short week, meaning the electric Gibbs could have extra chances to break off a big play on Thanksgiving Day.
Pick: Jahmyr Gibbs longest rush Over 17.5 yards (-105 at BetMGM)
Pick made on 11-27
Cooper Rush Over 205.5 pass yards (-110)
Listen, we all know Cooper Rush is not good... but he's actually shown an ability to throw the ball over the past two weeks, registering 354 yards against the Texans and 247 against the Commanders, and now he gets to face a New York Giants defense that is:
a) Horrendous.
b) Quit.
c) Horrendous.
Baker Mayfield picked the G-Men apart on Sunday, completing 24/30 passes for 294 yards — including 230 yards in the first half alone — and while I'm not saying the current Dallas Cowboys quarterback is going to do that, 206 total pass yards does seem a tad low.
The biggest thing that could derail this prop is the Cowboys just running endlessly (considering New York is arguably the worst run defense in the league)... but Dallas is 31st in rushing yards per game and yards per carry — the better option is to get the ball in the hands of CeeDee Lamb as much as possible.
It's also not like the Giants are a good pass defense; they allow the third-highest completion percentage in the NFL and have a whopping one sack in their last three games combined.
Industry projections range as high as 231 for Rush this afternoon, adding a bit of extra confidence he can get past this tiny number in what is the official "you can totally miss this while you eat your Thanksgiving dinner" game of the day.
Pick: Cooper Rush Over 205.5 pass yards (-110 at bet365)
Pick made on 11-27
Nico Collins longest reception Over 27.5 yards (-115)
Nico Collins is borderline unfair; he leads the NFL with almost 102 receiving yards per game, is eighth in yards per route run, and 13th in catches of 20+ yards — despite missing five games this season.
He's also had an 87-yard catch and 33-yard catch called back on penalties over the last two weeks, yet still has topped this long reception number in six of the seven games played this season for the Houston Texans.
His one failure was a long catch of 26 yards against the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 4 (when he had a season-high 12 catches and 151 yards) but I think he gets his revenge this Sunday against a Jags secondary that has gotten worse as the season has progressed.
Jacksonville has allowed a league-leading 52 catches of 20+ yards (and nine catches of 40+ yards) this season, coughed up the fourth-most yards per game to WR, and the second-highest completion percentage.
The Jaguars are also dead-last in pass rush win rate, have the lowest blitz rate, and are 31st in QB pressure rate — if you give Texans QB C.J. Stroud time to throw, he will make you pay... and against the man-heavy Jaguars, Collins will more often than not at the other end of it.
Pick: Nico Collins longest reception Over 27.5 yards (-115 at BetMGM)
Pick made on 11-27
NFL Week 13 prop betting card
- Jahmyr Gibbs longest rush Over 17.5 yards (-105)
- Cooper Rush Over 205.5 pass yards (-110)
- Nico Collins longest reception Over 27.5 yards (-115)
Last week: 3-2, +0.62 units
Season: 27-33, -8.62 units
Not intended for use in MA.
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