An unorthodox Week 17 in the NFL has already featured two Christmas games on Netflix, along with a showdown looming in the Windy City on Thursday night.
After going a perfect 5-0 with last week's NFL picks, let's dive into my selections for the weekend slate. My favorite NFL player props for Week 17 kick-off by backing standout rookie running back Bucky Irving.
NFL Week 17 prop picks
Bucky Irving o76.5 rushing yards (-110
Jonnu Smith o48.5 receiving yards (-115)
Jonathan Taylor u6.5 receiving yards (-110)
Click on each pick to see full analysis.
NFL prop picks for Week 17
Bucky Irving Over 76.5 rushing yards
Although Bucky Irving started the season as Rachaad White's backup, the rookie has made it clear who the head of the table is in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back room.
Entering Week 17, Irving has emerged as the new RB1, averaging 5.2 yards per carry in December. He's set to take on a Carolina Panthers run defense that ranks dead-last against the run, surrendering a whopping 5.1 yards per carry.
Irving saw 15 carries last week despite Tampa Bay trailing by double-digits early on, and a run-heavy game script should be in effect against a Panthers side that gave up 152 yards on 25 attempts to Irving back in Week 13.
Pick: Bucky Irving Over 76.5 rushing yards (-110 at bet365)
Pick made on 12-26
Jonnu Smith Over 48.5 receiving yards
One of 2024's biggest surprises has been the emergence of Jonnu Smith.
After spending several seasons as a backup tight end for various teams, Smith has become one of the league’s top receiving tight ends. Despite logging just a 29% snap share in Week 1, Smith has averaged 67.8% of field time over the past six games.
Sporting a career-high 802 receiving yards and tied for first on the Miami Dolphins in receptions, the 29-year-old has benefited from being Tua Tagovailoa's new security blanket.
Smith has eclipsed 49.5 receiving yards in four of his last six starts and should be Tua’s primary target on many plays against a Cleveland Browns defense that applies pressure on 41% of passing plays.
Pick made on 12-26
Jonathan Taylor Under 6.5 receiving yards
Jonathan Taylor made sure to erase all memory of his costly fumble against Denver in Week 15, tallying 218 rushing yards in the Indianapolis Colts' latest win over Tennessee.
However, with a rushing O/U of 101.5 ahead of Sunday's matchup against the New York Giants, the value in JT's props market lies elsewhere.
Taylor has quietly been a non-factor as a receiving back this season, ranking dead-last out of 49 qualified running backs in PFF receiver grade. The Colts star has just three catches on four targets over his last five games, including being shut out against the Titans and in Week 12 against Detroit.
With the Colts set to ground and pound the Giants to death and likely send out the combo of Trey Sermon and Tyler Goodson once things get ugly, I'm fading Taylor's receiving total on Sunday in the Meadowlands.
Pick: Jonathan Taylor Under 6.5 receiving yards (-110 at bet365)
Pick made on 12-26
NFL Week 17 prop betting card
- Bucky Irving o76.5 rushing yards (-110)
- Jonnu Smith o48.5 receiving yards (-115)
- Jonathan Taylor u6.5 receiving yards (-110)
Last week: 5-0, +4.55 units
Season: 5-0, +4.55 units
Not intended for use in MA.
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