December 27 gives us a clash between the Seattle Seahawks and Chicago Bears on Thursday Night Football.
The season is effectively over for the Bears, but there’s one Chicago player who will want to showcase his skills down the stretch, with rookie QB Caleb Williams aiming to impress his next head coach.
Here we study the Caleb Williams odds and props ahead of Thursday Night Football to find the very best NFL picks to wager on under the prime-time lights.
Caleb Williams TNF player prop picks
- Best bet
Williams Over 215.5 pass yds
(-113 at FanDuel) - SGP Pick
Williams Over 215.5 pass yds
Odunze Over 3.5 receptions
Allen anytime TD
(+505 at FanDuel)
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Caleb Williams TNF prop pick
My best bet
Caleb Williams Over 215.5 passing yards (-113 at FanDuel)
My analysis
Coming out of college, there were huge expectations for Caleb Williams. It’s safe to say that things haven’t gone quite to plan this season. There are several reasons for this. Some of it is on Williams, and some of it is on the dysfunctional Chicago Bears franchise but the success of Jayden Daniels and Bo Nix, who have both revitalized their teams, is only making Williams’ rookie year look worse than it is.
The good news for Bears fans is Williams has been showing signs of life down the stretch. In the past five weeks, he’s thrown a touchdown pass in every single game, compared to just four games with touchdown passes in the previous 10. He’s had a 100+ QB rating three times in the past five weeks and hasn’t thrown a single pick in that time.
These improvements show a young quarterback coming to terms with the speed of the NFL, something that bodes well ahead of tonight's clash with the Seattle Seahawks. Williams’ passing yard line sits at 215.5 and we’ll be taking the Over.
He’s had some really poor showings in his rookie season but his 218-yard average is still higher than this line and he’s had four games of 300+ yards.
Two of those 300+ games have come in the last five, a period in which we’ve seen his play improve rapidly, with Williams having Over 215.5 passing yards in three of those.
It’s been a tough schedule for Williams with those five games seeing him face the Vikings and Lions twice apiece and the 49ers once. Each of those defenses ranks inside the top seven in DVOA, with the Vikings and Lions both Top 5. The Bears may have lost those games but it’s been good to see Williams step up his play against truly elite defenses. Not only that, but the two games where he struggled were on the road, and he’ll be back in familiar surroundings tonight.
The Seahawks defense isn’t bad by any stretch but they’re the worst Williams has faced in over a month and a half.
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Caleb Williams TNF same-game parlay
Caleb Williams Over 215.5 passing yards
Rome Odunze Over 3.5 receptions
Keenan Allen anytime touchdown
First up, we’re adding Over 3.5 receptions for Rome Odunze. He’s had four or more receptions in four of the past six games. He’s also had seven targets in each of the past two games and gets consistent looks from Williams, with five or more targets in nine straight.
The final leg is for Keenan Allen to score. Allen started slowly in his new life as a Bear but he's turned his season around, scoring five times in the past five weeks while developing real chemistry with Williams. Williams is heavily targeting the veteran wideout, who has 10+ targets in three of his past five games. Volume means opportunity, which means touchdowns.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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