Variety is the spice of life, and it's so much easier to have a variety when your options are plentiful.
With the NFL odds board boasting a full 16-game schedule, there is no shortage of NFL player prop options — and advantageous matchups — to choose from.
After my first three NFL picks this week featured bets on receiving yards for a running back and a quarterback's rushing total, I'm going back to the RB receiving well, while also taking a tight end to do well against a tough defense... and then a superstar to do his thing.
Here are my full favorite player props from the Sunday slate of Week 8 odds.
Latest NFL prop picks
Kamara o4.5 receptions (-145 at bet365)
Waller o42.5 rec yards (-110 at bet365)
Hill o89.5 rec yards (-118 at Caesars)
Check out full analysis of picks below, or click here to view the full betting card.
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NFL prop picks for Saturday
Hoarding like a chipmunk
Full disclosure: I cashed in on Alvin Kamara's odds for his Over 4.5 receptions of TNF last week at plus money, and while the price isn't as good for this Sunday against the Indianapolis Colts, I'm going back to the well as there's still value to be found.
His receptions total is juiced as high as -190 — with some books already moving to Over 5.5 at plus money — but there are still a few operators sitting in the -145 range, so I'm jumping all over that.
New Orleans Saints QB Derek Carr has thrown a whopping 105 pass attempts in the past two weeks, with 22 of them going to Kamara, who has converted 19 of those into catches. Part of it is Kamara's status as the only credible receiving threat in the Saints backfield, while another part of it is a necessity for Carr to get rid of the ball quickly — the Saints are currently 30th in pass block win rate (per ESPN Stats), and with the Colts sitting 11th in pass rush win rate, he should again be unloading the ball in a hurry on Sunday.
Kamara has hauled in 7+ receptions in three of his four games in 2023, with the exception being a three-catch effort in a 34-0 win vs. New England that was a whacky game script and didn't require much effort from the offense. In normal game scenarios, Kamara catching passes is a big part of the offense, so I'm happy playing the Over 5.5 at plus money, but I love the Over 4.5 — as long as you can still grab something around -150)
Prop: Alvin Kamara Over 4.5 receptions (-145 at bet365)
Big Apple Baller
I don't blame you if you look at Tyrod Taylor and the New York Giants taking on the New York Jets defense and see more red flags than a bad online dating profile... but I think there's one profitable scenario for Big Blue — betting on Darren Waller's odds to have a competent afternoon.
OK, OK, stop yelling and just hear me out: "TyGod" under center is a good thing for Waller's production.
In the nine quarters since Taylor has stepped in for the injured Daniel Jones, Taylor has attempted 78 passes, with a team-leading 19 of them (24.4%) going to the star TE.
It's coincided with a bump in productivity for Waller, who averaged 3.8 catches (on 5.8 targets) for 38.3 yards per game in his first four games but has hauled in 6.7 catches (on 8.7 targets) for almost 76 ypg in the last three weeks — with at least 43 yards in every game... and his total for this Sunday is 42.5 yards.
Yes, the Jets defense is one of the league's elite units, but it's more of a nightmare for receivers (with CBs Sauce Gardner and DJ Reed expected to play) and has allowed the ninth-most receiving yards per game to TEs (55.2).
The Jets have the second-highest QB pressure rate, despite the second-lowest blitz rate, and play man defense at a Top-10 rate (per Pro Football Focus). Taylor, however, has performed well under duress, currently posting the second-highest completion percentage under pressure (per The Athletic), as his scrambling ability can extend plays and give Waller more time to use his athleticism to get open and act as a safety blanket for his QB.
Industry consensus projects Waller for around 50 yards on the day, and with the G-Men unlikely to have a big lead at any point (thus needing to pass all four quarters), I can see Waller the Baller being heavily involved from start to finish.
Prop: Darren Waller Over 42.5 receiving yards (-110 at bet365)
This ain't Chester
Tyreek Hill is ridiculous. There's your analysis.
Alright, I'm kidding (kind of), but the Miami Dolphins star leads the NFL with 128.9 receiving yards per game, and when I see Tyreek Hill odds for his receiving yards sitting at 89.5 — and he's recorded 88+ in five of seven games this season — I'm moving faster than a Cheetah to, err, bet on "Cheetah."
Hill's worst performance this year, a five-catch, 40-yard effort in Week 2, came against these same New England Patriots, but I feel a repeat of that stat line is highly unlikely.
First, the Patriots had standout rookie CB Christian Gonzalez, who predominantly shadowed Hill and held him to two catches for 17 yards in direct coverage, for that prime-time matchup... and Gonzalez is now out for the year after suffering a shoulder injury in Week 4 — plus three of the Pats' four highest opponent passing yardage totals have come in the 3+ games that Gonzalez has been sidelined.
Second, the Pats have still stayed steadfast in playing a high amount of man coverage (fifth-most in the league at nearly 31%), and Hill is third among all WR in receiving yards vs. man, hauling in nearly 75% of his targets as his ability to line up all over the field makes him near-impossible to guard — especially without your top corner.
Third, Tyreek & Co. are at home this Sunday, and you know he's going to want to get revenge on New England for being mostly muted on national TV. This opened at 87.5 and some books rapidly moved as high as 95.5, but with some projection models showing Hill as high as 110 yards — and the consensus average around 99 — I'm still taking him to log 90+ yards and hope that revenge is dished out.
Prop: Tyreek Hill Over 89.5 receiving yards (-118 at Caesars)
NFL prop picks for Friday
Thrill of the Hunt
It's been a wild ride for Cleveland Browns running back Kareem Hunt, going from being part of a backfield dynamic duo to an unsigned free agent in just two years.
But when Nick Chubb went down for the season earlier this year, Hunt rejoined the Browns as a safety net, and now with Jerome Ford out this Sunday, Hunt is in line to be the No. 1 RB for the Brownies vs. the Seattle Seahawks — but I'm actually targeting Kareem Hunt's odds to rack up some work in the passing game and go Over his total of 12.5 yards.
With Ford sidelined, Hunt is likely going to split the carries with Pierre Strong Jr. which, combined with the fact that Cleveland is facing a Seahawks run defense that is one of the stingiest in the league (56.5 rypg to RBs) doesn't bode well for him to hit 48 yards on his own — but having backup QB P.J. Walker under center means Hunt should be more active (and successful) through the air.
Walker checked down to his RBs nine times in the last two games, resulting in seven catches and 51 yards, with Ford receiving six of those targets. His absence means Hunt should almost exclusively see the field over Strong in passing situations, giving him all the opportunity to rack up the catches against a Seahawks D that has allowed more than 33 yards per game to the opponent's top pass-catching RB over its last five games.
Hunt already has topped this number in two of his four games, when Ford was still getting most of the RB targets. With the backfield all to himself during pass downs and a QB that likes to look towards the backfield as a safety net, Hunt should have no problem topping this total on Sunday.
Prop: Kareem Hunt Over 12.5 receiving yards (-110 at bet365)
The most colorful bird
After putting a beatdown on the Lions last week, in which star QB Lamar Jackson put on a passing clinic, the Baltimore Ravens now get to engage in a battle of the birds against the Arizona Cardinals and their woeful defense this Sunday.
Trying to find the right way to bet on the purple birds, however, is a bit tricky: RBs Gus Edwards and Justice Hill are always at risk of cannibalizing each other (and both have rushing totals that don't show a ton of value), Lamar Jackson's odds for his passing yards is 232.5 — a number that he's topped in just 3/7 games, is below his season average, and only five yards fewer than the Cards' average against — and his Over 1.5 passing TD is also dicey as he tends to run a lot in the red zone to snag some touchdowns.
BUT... there does appear to be some value in Lamar's rushing total, which is currently available at 47.5 yards. Jackson leads all QBs, unsurprisingly, with 352 yards on the ground this season (50.3 per game), while logging 45+ yards in four of his seven games.
The Cardinals have allowed the eighth-most rushing yards per game and while they haven't given up a ton of yards to QBs so far, they've faced just one of the Top-10 rushing QBs this season — and that was Daniel Jones, who ran for 59 yards.
Consensus projections also have Lamar around 56.2 rush yards, giving a little bit of a buffer to this play, but with the Ravens likely to do more damage on the ground, Jackson should be quite involved on Sunday.
Prop: Lamar Jackson Over 47.5 rushing yards (-110 at bet365)
Neat-o Nico
One of the breakout wide receivers through the first half of the 2023 season has been Nico Collins of the Houston Texans, who is ninth among all WRs with 91.2 yards per game, despite sitting outside the Top 40 in targets per contest.
The Texans come out of their bye week with a fully healthy WR corps once again, but there's still reason to believe in QB C.J. Stroud's favorite target to feast on Sunday and bet on Nico Collins' odds to go Over a low receiving yards total of 56.5 yards:
They face the Carolina Panthers.
Collins' line opened at 51.5 on Wednesday night and shot up to 56.5 yards (and even 57.5 at some spots) as of Friday morning because the Panthers are not just a bad defense... they're beaten up in the secondary: No. 1 CB Jaycee Horn is out, versatile DB Jeremy Chinn is out, and both starting safeties are unlikely to play after being sidelined for weeks with injuries.
That puts Collins & Co. in line to face the likes of Donte Jackson and CJ Henderson, both of which grade poorly by Pro Football Focus in terms of catch rate allowed and explosive plays against, while the Panthers also play zone defense at the third-highest rate in the league — ranking 29th with 8.6 yards allowed per zone coverage targets — and Collins leads the Texans with 21 catches and 360 yards when facing zone schemes.
The biggest threat to slowing down Collins on Sunday is the Texans run game, as the Panthers' run defense is even worse than its pass defense, but considering Nico has 80+ yards in 4/6 games — and consensus projections have him around 63.5 yards — there's no reason why multiple Houston pass-catchers can't have a Sunday Funday.
Prop: Nico Collins Over 56.5 receiving yards (-112 at BetRivers)
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NFL Week 8 prop betting card
- Alvin Kamara Over 4.5 receptions (-145)
- Darren Waller Over 42.5 receiving yards (-110)
- Tyreek Hill Over 89.5 receiving yards (-118)
- -
- Kareem Hunt Over 12.5 receiving yards (-110)
- Lamar Jackson Over 47.5 rushing yards (-110)
- Nico Collins Over 56.5 receiving yards (-112)
Last week: 3-3
Season to date: 19-16, +0.76 units
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