There’s a prop bet market for nearly every aspect of Super Bowl 59, and the opening kickoff is no exception.
Let’s take a quick look at the best way to attack whether or not there will be an attempted return for this year’s opening play for the Chiefs and the Eagles, or if your NFL picks should be on a touchback to be the result.
Super Bowl opening kickoff prop pick
My pick
Opening kickoff to be a touchback or fair catch —Yes (-220 at FanDuel)
My analysis
After just six of the first 55 Super Bowls saw a touchback on the opening kickoff of the game, we’ve seen one in each of the past three seasons. And while the new kickoff rule has led to a higher rate of returns versus last season, it’s still unlikely we will see on to open Super Bowl 59.
If the Kansas City Chiefs win the toss and kicks first, the Philadelphia Eagles will almost certainly begin their possession at the 30-yard line. Harrison Butker has a powerful leg, and the Chiefs did not allow a single return this season on any of their opening kickoffs when winning the coin toss.
Joining him in that distinction was Jake Elliott. The Eagles rarely gave up kick returns, and while they’ve allowed more in the playoffs, the cold weather and wind have played a big role in that factor. Given the Super Bowl will be played inside a dome, it’s no longer going to hinder the kicking game.
Even if they get the chance, the Chiefs aren’t likely to return it. Of the 19 games Kansas City has played this season, they’ve attempted a return just four times on their first opportunity to do so. That said, all four of those returns came in games where they received the opening kickoff.
Despite that fact, the Chiefs will be cognisant of the Eagles' forced turnovers on kickoffs against Green Bay and Washington, and they won’t want Kenneth Gainwell to get an opportunity to break a return.
Given neither team will want to start the game by allowing a big play, or committing a costly turnover, I fully expect the receiving team to play things safe and just get the ball into the hands of their offense.
Obviously, the juice involved with this play is not for everyone. But of the options available, it’s the best way to go — especially because it includes fair catches as well as a regular touchback.
