Sunday sees the biggest event in sports with the Super Bowl and as usual, there are a host of ways to bet on the action.
Much like an offense looking to establish the run, we want to establish the winning feeling early, so with that in mind, I’ve scoured the odds to find the best ‘quick hitters’ on the board.
We’re talking about bets that will be settled nice and early, hopefully giving us some early wins and money in the bank.
Here are my best three quick-hitter NFL picks for the Super Bowl
Super Bowl LIX quick picks
- Coin Toss — Tails (-105 at Caesars)
- Jalen Hurts Over 6.5 rushing yards — 1Q (-115 at Caesars)
- Result of first drive — Punt (+125 at Caesars)
Best Super Bowl quick hit bets for Chiefs vs Eagles
Coin toss: Tails (-105 at Caesars)
It’s the Super Bowl and you can’t not have a little action on the coin toss. As the ancient saying goes “tails never fails” and while that isn’t strictly true, it does often appear to be the winner. So let’s crunch the numbers.
So far the coin toss has seen Tails win 30 times, two more than Heads. Last year the San Francisco 49ers called Tails and it was Heads, a game that the Kansas City Chiefs went on to win, however a look at when these two teams met at Super Bowl LVII shows that it landed on Tails in a game that the Chiefs went on to win, to start what could potentially be a three-peat.
Over the past decade, we’ve seen Tails go 6-4 and it’s also worth noting that winning the toss in the past two Super Bowls has moved the Chiefs up to fourth in the all-time most coin toss wins at the Super Bowl, trailing only the Dallas Cowboys, 49ers and Miami Dolphins.
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Jalen Hurts first quarter rushing yards: Over 6.5 (-115 at Caesars)
All eyes are going to be on Saquon Barkley on Sunday night, particularly those of the Kansas City Chiefs defense. That’s going to give Jalen Hurts plenty of opportunity to make some yards with his feet, something that he’s been so efficient at doing throughout his time in the NFL.
Barkley’s rushing yard total for the first quarter sits at 27.5, a high number, especially given that he’s unlikely to be able to rip a 60-yard run against this defense as he did the Commanders two weeks ago. Instead, we’re taking Hurts’ line, which at 6.5 yards feels like real value.
Through the regular season, we saw Hurts take 29 rushing attempts in the first quarter of his 15 games, he managed to accumulate 135 yards, at an average of 4.7 yards per carry. A simple bit of math tells us that he averaged nine yards per quarter in the regular season this year, some way above his line of 6.5 on Sunday night.
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Result of the first drive: Punt (+125 at Caesars)
We so often go into Super Bowls expecting all kinds of offensive fireworks but more often than not, it takes a little while to get going. As much as we’re talking about Saquon Barkley and Patrick Mahomes in the build-up to Sunday’s game, this game will more than likely be decided by defense. After all, the Eagles' defense is ranked first in DVOA, while the Chiefs are also a top-tier defense.
Both Spags and Vic Fangio come into this having had two weeks to scheme and do everything possible to limit the threat of their opposing offense. It’s not going to be easy but these are two of the best DCs in the business and they are more than capable of doing enough for this game to at least start slow.
What’s great about this bet is we didn’t need to specify a team, although you can do that if you wish and get bigger odds. That means it doesn’t matter who wins the coin toss, we’re going to be in with a shout of winning. We have two powerful defenses, both stacked in the trenches, and both incredibly well-drilled. The first drives of this quarter are likely to be the teams feeling each other out, so that’ll most likely end in a punt.
