The Best NFL Sack Total Bets for 2023: Expect Bosa Back in Nick of Time

The 2023 NFL season is just around the corner, and there are more NFL odds markets than ever to explore. While quarterback remains the most important position on the field, every football fan knows the importance of the players who get after the QB as well. Taking the Over on offensive props can be a betting trap, and I expect that to hold true for many of the defensive player props this year as well.

While I'm fading a few feared pass rushers this season, I'm also backing a consistent sack artist and putting my money on a sophomore who is poised to break out. Here are my Top 5 free NFL picks targeting sacks for the 2023 NFL season.

Prop bet #1: Backing Bosa

With the Nick Bosa holdout situation with the San Francisco 49ers continuing to unfold, this is a bet I'm keeping a close eye on. It's a bit surprising that books haven't taken this prop off the board since Kansas City Chiefs' holdout Chris Jones doesn't have a sack prop currently listed, but there remains optimism on both sides that Bosa will reach an extension soon. 

As long as Bosa signs within the next few days, I expect him to be in game shape and on the field by Sunday. In past years, the Ohio State product has done an excellent job of showing up for the season ready despite being hindered by injuries during the summer.

Last year saw Bosa rack up 18.5 sacks en route to winning the Defensive Player of the Year award, and the 49ers star previously went Over this number with 15.5 sacks in 2021 as well. Bosa is one of the most talented defenders in the game, and at just 25 years old, it's a scary thought that he still hasn't peaked.

It also helps that the 49ers are tied for fourth on the Super Bowl odds board. This was a team that had an incredible 10 wins by double digits last season and they should be just as dominant this year, which will ultimately lead to negative game scripts and desperate late-game passing from opponents.

In addition, according to the preseason offensive line rankings by Pro Football Focus, the NFC West has three of the five worst offensive lines in the NFL. Expect Bosa to be back on the field creating chaos in the trenches in Week 1. 

Pick: Bosa Over 15.5 sacks (+110 at bet365)

Prop bet #2: Myles off

Myles Garrett is one of the best pass rushers in the game, but the O/U on his sacks might be a tad too high. Sure, he has finished with 16 sacks in each of the last two years, but he'll have more competition for sacks this year with Za'Darius Smith lining up on the other side of the line for the Cleveland Browns. 

In theory, Smith's presence should also make things easier for Garrett. However, it's more likely that offenses continue to focus on Garrett, as his teammates become the main beneficiaries of his pass rush presence.

In addition, Garrett will have a tougher time abusing his divisional opponents this season. The Baltimore Ravens have one of the league's best bookends with Morgan Moses and Ronnie Stanley, while the Bengals massively upgraded at left tackle by adding Orlando Brown Jr. The Steelers even used their first-round pick this year on tackle Broderick Jones, who didn't allow a single sack for Georgia last season. 

Pick: Garrett Under 14.5 sacks (-110 at bet365)

Prop bet #3: Aaron on the side of caution 

Aaron Donald is still one of the best defensive players in the league, but he's coming off a career-low five sacks. Granted, he missed six games with injuries, but that still means he was on pace for fewer than eight sacks over a 17-game season.

Nagging injuries could continue to take their toll on the 32-year-old Donald, and with the Los Angeles Rams likely being one of the worst teams in the league, he'll have little incentive to play through pain. The likelihood that L.A. will often be playing from behind also means that opponents will be more likely to run the ball late in games, giving Donald fewer opportunities to get after the passer.

Another factor to keep in mind is that the Rams' best rushers off the edge might be third-round rookies Byron Young and Kobie Turner. Even when Donald is able to get penetration up the middle, quarterbacks will be able to roll to the outside if there isn't also pressure coming from the edge. 

Pick: Donald Under 10.5 sacks (-115 at bet365)

Prop bet #4: Jordan rules

Cameron Jordan might not be as much of a household name as the Watts and Bosa's of the league, but the eight-time Pro Bowler remains a dangerous pass rusher. There has to be some concern that his production will fall off a cliff now that he's 34 years old, but Jordan is coming off a year where he had 8.5 sacks, and he's also gone Over 8.0 sacks in five of the last six seasons. This is an athlete who takes care of his body and has appeared in 16 games in every season during his 12-year career.

It also helps that the New Orleans Saints play in a weak division that features underwhelming quarterback names like Bryce Young, Desmond Ridder, and Baker Mayfield. The Saints are also scheduled to face inexperienced players Jordan Love, C.J. Stroud, and Anthony Richardson during the first half of the year.

Passers without NFL experience tend to have less pocket awareness and often hold on to the ball too long, which leads to plenty of sacks. Jordan should benefit from those matchups and should go Over this low total. 

Pick: Jordan Over 7.5 sacks (+100 at bet365)

Prop bet #5: Sophomore stud

New York Giants defensive coordinator Wink Martindale loves to bring the heat on opposing passers, so Kayvon Thibodeaux should shine in his second season with New York. The fourth pick overall in last year's draft had just four sacks in 14 games as a rookie, but he showed massive improvement throughout the season. 

In fact, all six of Thibodeaux's tackles for loss and three of his sacks came in his final five games. In another late-season performance, he failed to get a sack but came away with four QB hurries and five pressures in Week 12 versus Dallas. 

Dexter Lawrence and Leonard Williams are a pair of interior defensive linemen who do a terrific job of generating pressure but seldom get sacks. Expect them to chase opposing quarterbacks right into the arms of Thibodeaux, who is poised for a big sophomore season and should easily eclipse this number.

Pick: Thibodeaux Over 5.5 sacks (-115 at bet365)

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