Does anybody know why this game isn’t Sunday Night Football? I certainly don’t. For some crazy reason, this week’s Bills at Chiefs clash isn’t the primetime game but that won’t stop us from treating it like the blockbuster matchup that it is.
This is easily the biggest game of Week 6 and arguably the biggest game of the NFL season to date, with the Bills 2.5-point favorites at Arrowhead.
Will it be a big night for Patrick Mahomes or will Josh Allen ruin the party? Don’t miss our NFL prop picks for the Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs, and check out our Bills vs. Chiefs picks for more.
Bills vs Chiefs prop picks
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Bills vs Chiefs Week 6 props
I'm the MVP now
Last week, we saw the Bills go nuclear against the Steelers with Josh Allen throwing for 424 yards and four touchdowns. I’m expecting another huge week for Allen, especially with the news that injuries are forcing the Chiefs to start Joshua Williams and Jaylen Watson at cornerback this Sunday. Both were drafted this year, in the fourth and seventh rounds, and Allen could feast on their inexperience.
Josh Allen’s passing yard line currently sits at 297.5 and has been creeping up through the week. I’m happy to smash the Over on that all the way until we start to top 300. He’s already racked up 1,651 passing yards and has broken 297.5 in three of five weeks, only missing that by 0.5 in the season opener. Against a pair of rookie corners, I’m expecting Allen to go off and put up some big numbers.
He’s playing at an elite level right now, leading the NFL in passing yards, passing touchdowns, and has a QBR of 78.4, third in the league. He’s about to make a statement.
Josh Allen Prop: Over 297.5 passing yards (-110)
Back in the fold
With my expectation that we’re about to see Allen explode, that means we’re going to need players who can benefit from that. One player who really leaps out at me is Isaiah McKenzie.
McKenzie missed last week but is expected to return on Sunday and regain his spot as the Bills’ third wideout. In his absence, we saw Khalil Shakir step up and grab 75 yards and a TD.
I’m confident Shakir won’t eat into McKenzie’s targets this week but it shows just how much success the third receiving option can have on this team, especially when Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis will be getting the attention of the best players in the Chiefs injury-hit DB corps.
McKenzie’s receiving yards line sits at 35.5, a number he’s hit in three of four active weeks. In that time, he also snagged three touchdowns for a total of 153 yards. He has a great chance of hit the Over if Allen has another big game.
Isaiah McKenzie Prop: Over 35.5 receiving yards (-110)
Hard Knox
If you drafted Dawson Knox in fantasy this year, then you’ve been very disappointed with the performances that you’ve got for his ADP.
It’s easy to forget that last year, Knox scored nine touchdowns and was one of the league’s best tight ends. The good news is that Knox has seen his targets increase throughout the season. He missed last week’s win over the Steelers but in Week 4 he had a season-high six targets.
The Chiefs have allowed three touchdowns to tight ends so far this season and the +260 price that Knox could find the end zone for the first time this year, looks generous.
Dawson Knox Prop: Anytime touchdown (+260 at PointsBet)
