The 2022 NFL season kicks off with an absolute unit of a game Thursday night as the defending Super Bowl champions, the Los Angeles Rams, take on this season’s betting favorite to win it all in the Buffalo Bills.
With a total of 52.5 and on the indoor track of SoFi Stadium, scoring should come early and often. Matthew Stafford’s elbow injury might be an issue down the road, but not this early in the season. Both offenses have added solid pieces and can spread it around while the defenses lack depth — especially in the secondary for the visiting side.
With a potential shootout on our hands, the secondary receiving options for both teams project well while there is some value in the Bills’ goalline rushing game. Find out my three best player props for TNF’s showdown between the Bills and Rams.
Bills vs Rams prop picks
- Moss anytime TD (+400)
- Henderson Over 28.5 rushing yards (-115)
- Robinson Over 60.5 receiving yards (-117)
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Bills vs Rams TNF props
Moss-training
The Bills have a crowded backfield after taking James Cook in the second round of the draft this year. He has been hyped in the preseason with his play between the 20s but has been struggling in pass protection, which likely means fewer snaps in Week 1. Cook could certainly cut into Devin Singletary’s workload, but short-yardage back Zack Moss should get the call closer to the goal line and might even see more early-down work as well.
It was reported that Moss played on an injured ankle for the majority of the 2021 season. Now, apparently fully healthy, he has looked like a different runner and has earned some snaps in a crowded backfield.
When the #Bills drafted James Cook, there was at least some question as to whether Zack Moss would end up on the roster bubble. That doesn’t appear to be the case. Sean McDermott said Moss has had “one of the more consistent training camps” on the team.https://t.co/7YHTQoJAIe
— Jay Skurski (@JaySkurski) August 23, 2022
With Cook progressing slowly as rookies sometimes do, Moss could see even more work Thursday and projects to get the majority of the work closer to the end zone.
Josh Allen is a threat to poach short-yardage TDs, but the signal-caller took a conservative run approach to start the 2021 season and it would be smart if he does again this year to cut down on contact early in the schedule.
With a high-total game and a hard runner needed vs. the Rams in the red zone, Moss’ abilities will shine Thursday night, and to make things even better, he isn’t being priced as the team’s goal-line back. Some sharper books have him as short as +220.
Zack Moss Prop: Anytime touchdown (+400)
Carries and the Henderson
The timeshare between Cam Akers and Darrell Henderson is concerning for backers of either rusher, but with the lower rushing total of 28.5 yards and possibly being the favorite for more carries, Henderson’s rushing market is one I expect to climb closer to kickoff.
Akers plodded his way to 2.43 yards per carry in the playoffs after recovering from a torn Achilles injury last season. Henderson was dealing with an injury at that time but has garnered more positive words from the coaching staff in the preseason heading into Thursday. The running back averaged over 15 carries in Weeks 1 through 8 last year and finished with a 4.6 YPC with Akers on the shelf. His knock has been durability but he comes into the opener healthy.
Rams head coach Sean McVay when asked about RBs Cam Akers and Darrell Henderson after practice today:
— Stu Jackson (@StuJRams) September 2, 2022
“Everybody’s good to go.”
The Athletic's Jourdan Rodrigue reported early in camp that the two backs were splitting snaps evenly and Sean McVay has stated that he believes they are both starters and are complimentary to one another.
Both backs were dealing with soft-tissue injuries last week, which would also make me think McVay won't rely heavily on one more than the other, making Henderson and his much lower rushing yard total the play here.
The Bills are also much weaker in the secondary heading into the season, which could create some more running room with Buffalo worrying more about Cooper Kupp and Allen Robinson. The Bills allowed 115.4 rushing yards per game a season ago and the addition of Liam Coen as the Rams' new OC could spell more running as he ran the ball successfully at a 56.78% clip at Kentucky last year.
I see this as a 50/50 timeshare and with this game projecting as one of the fastest-paced games on the slate, there could be room for double-digit carries for both backs. THE BLITZ projects him for over 35 yards on the ground. The threat of the Rams’ passing attack will also give Henderson more room to operate.
Darrell Henderson Prop: Over 28.5 rushing yards (-115)
New outlook for Robinson
In the nine games Robert Woods played last year as the No. 2 receiving option in Los Angeles, he had at least five catches in all but one game and was targeted nearly nine times a game. In Week 10, Van Jefferson and Odell Beckham Jr. saw a combined 10 targets with OBJ seeing just shy of seven targets per game in Weeks 11 through 17.
Allen Robinson comes over from Chicago reinvigorated with a winning team and has a whole training camp under his belt with his new offense. His receiving yard markets have already jumped up from an opening total of 55.5 yards to as high as 65.5 before bettors started buying the Under.
Even if this Rams offense doesn’t pass as much as they did under Kevin O’Connell, which was one of the highest rates in football on early downs a season ago, there will be enough pace to this game that all the mouths can get fed. Stafford’s elbow injury might be a problem down the road but will be fine in Week 1.
The matchup will also be advantageous for the LA passing game as CB Tre’Davious White is out for the Bills, meaning rookie Kaiir Elam and third-year corner Dane Jackson will start on the outside for Buffalo. Jackson graded 97th out of 116 corners in coverage, per Pro Football Focus last season, and has just eight career NFL starts to his name. This is one inexperienced cornerback group and has to face a head coach in McVay who can take advantage with his love for pre-snap movement.
Main takeaway from 2 days at Rams camp: The staff here is in love with Allen Robinson. From his approach in meetings to what he can give them in this offense. His route tree and where he can line up are more varied than they’d even hoped. Potential monster year incoming.
— Robert Mays (@robertmays) July 27, 2022
The coaching staff is in love with him. The Athletic’s Robert Mays reported that coaches have been impressed with the receiver’s "approach in meetings, his route tree, and where he can line up" within this offense.
I’m buying the 60.5 and will play this up to 66.5 yards as the books are projecting him for Over five grabs. This should be the highest-scoring game of Week 1.
Allen Robinson II Prop: Over 60.5 receiving yards (-117)
