Commanders vs Bengals MNF Prop Bets: Daniels Racks Up Rushing Yards

Jayden Daniels has run for 132 yards in his first two NFL games and there's no reason to think that will stop against the Bengals on Monday night. He highlights our MNF props below.

Shawn Wronka - Contributor at Covers.com
Shawn Wronka • Betting Analyst
Sep 23, 2024 • 11:01 ET • 4 min read
Jayden Daniels Washington Commanders NFL
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

Jayden Daniels and the Washington Commanders are coming off of a touchdown-less win and are looking to display more of an offensive spark as they take on Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals, who are getting star receiver Tee Higgins back to help give their own offense a boost.

Which LSU quarterback will shine bright under the lights on Monday night? Read our NFL picks and Commanders vs. Bengals predictions below to find out. 

Commanders vs Bengals MNF props

Read full analysis of each pick.

Commanders vs Bengals MNF props

Prop bet #1: Mike Gesicki Over 25.5 receiving yards / anytime touchdown

-113 at FanDuel / +410 at FanDuel

Mike Gesicki joined the Cincinnati Bengals this offseason to not only help lead and round out their tight end group but to more so serve as Tyler Boyd's primary replacement in the slot.

He's run 54.3% of his routes this year from the slot, trailing only Trenton Irwin at 55.6%, but doubling Irwin up in targets per route run (35.1% vs. 18.2%) and garnering nearly 12x more yards per route run (2.95 vs 0.25).

The Washington Commanders are arguably the league's worst secondary, with Benjamin St. Juste having allowed the most yards of any cornerback since the start of last season. They allowed 139 yards from the slot in Week 1, with Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Jalen McMillan all scoring their touchdowns from the slot.

In Week 2, Wan'Dale Robinson also scored from the slot and Malik Nabers (who moved around the formation) gashed them for 127 yards and a score.

Prop bet #2: Brian Robinson Over 10.5 receiving yards

-113 at FanDuel

Brian Robinson has quietly been one of the league's most consistent and well-rounded running backs but hasn't gotten the attention or credit of other high-profile backs. Last week, he tallied 133 yards on the ground across 17 carries (7.8 YPC) and had 89 all-purpose yards and a touchdown the week before.

Austin Ekeler was brought in to be the more receiving-centric of the two, but to date, Robinson has garnered an equal amount of targets (seven) and has gotten those targets at a higher per-route basis (25.0% vs 21.9%).

He hit this mark in Week 1 but failed to hit it last week after managing to secure just one of his three targets. If Robinson continues to get 3+ targets per game, 10.5 receiving yards is too low of a mark for him to not go Over.

Prop bet #3: Jayden Daniels Over 46.5 rushing yards

-113 at FanDuel

The second overall pick out of LSU gets his first primetime action and has a chance to show off his elite rushing ability against a defense that has already been susceptible to it.

While the Bengals rank second in passing yards allowed to opposing quarterbacks through the first two weeks, they rank Bottom 10 in rushing attempts and rushing yards allowed to the position.

And it isn't as if they've played against high-end rushing quarterbacks yet, as they played against Patrick Mahomes (four rushes for 29 yards) and Jacoby Brissett (seven for 32).

Jayden Daniels has run for 88 and 44 yards in his first two games, with the latter coming against a Giants defense that ranked eighth-best in rushing yards allowed to quarterbacks and had added superstar linebacker Brian Burns in the offseason.

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Shawn Wronka - Covers
Betting Analyst

Shawn Wronka is an analytics-based sports bettor who was drawn to analytics at an early age via the stats on the back of sports cards. He began sports betting in 2016, and took an immediate interest in UFC before finding his way towards other major sports.

After years of casual betting, he took an interest in the numbers-based approach and specialized in learning and applying those techniques to niche markets such as player props, the NFL and NBA drafts, and F1. Shawn finds writing a good way to balance the time he spends on numbers, giving him an outlet to paint quantitative edges into qualitative narratives.

A graduate of the University of Wisconsin-Madison, his work has been seen in dozens of publications including the National Post, Financial Post, Calgary Herald, Vancouver Sun, and The Province.

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