This AL West series kicks off on Monday evening with the Houston Astros hosting the Seattle Mariners at Minute Maid Park. MLB odds have Houston as a -130 favorite, while the total sits at 7.5.
My Mariners vs. Astros prediction is bullish on Houston, thanks in part to their edge on the mound. Read on for my MLB picks for Monday, September 23.
Mariners vs Astros prediction
My best bet
Astros -1.5 (+160 at FanDuel)
My analysis
The Seattle Mariners hand the ball to right hander Bryce Miller, who I'm fading tonight. While he boasts a 3.06 ERA through 30 starts this season, regression is looming down the final stretch.
The RHP sports a 3.76 xERA and ranks in the Bottom third of the league in average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard-hit rate. This expected regression is likely to come to fruition against the Houston Astros, a team he possesses a 5.63 ERA against over the past three meetings.
Meanwhile, righty Hunter Brown gets the ball for Houston. Brown outranks Miller in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, strikeout rate, barrel rate and hard-hit rate. The Stros starter has also faced Seattle three times this season, posting a 1-0 record with a 1.65 ERA across those three meetings.
The pitching advantage doesn’t end there, considering the Astros’ bullpen outranks the Mariners’ in ERA.
That just leaves the hitting, which is another massive edge for Houston. This season, it outranks Seattle in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, OBP, SLG, OPS and home runs.
Mariners vs Astros same-game parlay (SGP)
Astros -1.5
Bryce Miller Under 4.5 strikeouts
Jose Altuve Over 0.5 hits
I'm also fading Miller in the prop market as he ranks in the 25th percentile in chase rate and 36th percentile in whiff rate. Through 89 combined career plate appearances against the righty, this current Houston lineup possesses a mere 13.5% strikeout rate and 15.4% whiff rate.
Jose Altuve boasts a .364 BA through 11 career plate appearances against Miller and has recorded 21 hits over his past 16 games, posting a .309 BA in the process.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Mariners vs Astros odds
Mariners vs Astros live odds
Mariners vs Astros opening odds
- Moneyline: Seattle +136 | Houston -162
- Run line: Seattle +1.5 (-164) | Houston -1.5 (+136)
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-124) | Under 7.5 (+102)
Mariners vs Astros moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- Houston opened as a -162 favorite and has since been bet down to -130.
- In my opinion, the market is severely overreacting to Miller’s success this season, and now is a good time to buy the Astros at a discount.
- The total opened at 7.5 and remains at that number at the time of writing.
- The juice is heavily on the Over, so it's more likely this number goes to eight rather than seven.
Mariners vs Astros trend
Eleven of Houston’s past 12 wins have come by at least a two-run margin. Find more MLB betting trends for Mariners vs. Astros.
Mariners vs Astros game info
| Location: | Minute Maid Park, Houston, TX |
| Date: | Monday, 9-23-2024 |
| First pitch: | 8:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | RSNW, SCHN |
| Mariners starting pitcher: | Bryce Miller (11-8, 3.12 ERA) |
| Astros starting pitcher: | Hunter Brown (11-8, 3.59 ERA) |
Mariners vs Astros latest injuries
Mariners vs Astros weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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