In an NFC North showdown that the Minnesota Vikings need to win, they take on a Chicago Bears team coming off a heartbreaking loss.
With Minnesota’s aggressive defense and the inconsistency of Chicago’s offense, I expect a road cover from Kevin O’Connell’s team in my Vikings vs. Bears predictions and NFL picks for Sunday, November 24.
Vikings vs Bears prediction
My best bet
Vikings -3.5 (-105 at BetMGM)
My analysis
The Over/Under here is enticing, with both of these defenses playing good football, both quarterbacks being slightly sporadic, and the weather expected to be cold in the Windy City on Sunday afternoon.
However, with it set at just 39.5, that’s too low a number to justify when the Minnesota Vikings offense has shown it has the ability to pop off. While I don’t think it’s going to hang a 40-burger on Matt Eberflus’ defense, I do think it will be good enough to win by 4-plus points and cover.
The Chicago Bears defense is top 10 in EPA per play, but has struggled to stop the run this season. It’s just 25th in EPA per rush and allowing the 10th-most rushing yards per game in the league (130.3).
That will allow this offense to lean on Aaron Jones, who’s on pace for over 1,000 rushing yards for the fourth time in his career. But the scoring won’t all fall on him, with Darnold bouncing back from a pair of uglier games to throw for over 240 with two scores last week.
He ranks seventh in the NFL in big-time throws (17) and can challenge this Bears secondary with Jefferson and Jordan Addison. The biggest reason Minnesota will cover is because of the other side of the ball.
The Vikings are the No. 1 defense in EPA per play this season, allowing the fourth-fewest points per game (17.0). Flores’ unit has completely shut down opposing running games - first in EPA per rush and rushing yards allowed (74.4) - which puts even more pressure on Williams.
The problem with that is that Williams is the most sacked QB in the NFL (41) and is seventh in time to throw (3.0 seconds) because he’s held onto the ball for too long at times. That’s not going to work against a Minnesota defense that’s fourth in EPA per dropback and third in sacks (35).
With Williams set to be under fire all game, the Vikings should cover this 3.5-point spread.
Vikings vs Bears same-game parlay
Vikings -3.5
Aaron Jones Over 80.5 rushing + receiving yards
Caleb Williams Over 205.5 passing yards
If Minnesota is going to cover, Aaron Jones is going to have to have a strong performance. Chicago’s defense is susceptible on the ground, and despite being banged up earlier in the year, Jones is top 20 in rushing yards after contact (455), missed tackles forced (27), and 10-plus-yard runs (15).
He’s also proven he can help in the passing game - seventh in receiving yards among running backs (262) - and has topped 80.5 rushing and receiving yards in four of his last five games. Caleb Williams will likely be throwing plenty to keep up with Jones and Minnesota.
The Vikings are allowing the fifth-most passing yards per (234.8), and Williams has thrown for 206-plus in four of his last six.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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More NFL picks and odds from Covers
Vikings vs Bears odds
Vikings vs Bears live odds
Vikings vs Bears opening odds
- Spread: Minnesota -4 (-110) | Chicago +4 (-110)
- Moneyline: Minnesota (-200) | Chicago (+165)
- Over/Under: Over 40.5 (-110) | Under 40.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Vikings vs Bears spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Vikings opened favored between four and five points, with most books coming down and offering Minnesota at -3.5.
- The Vikings are among the best teams ATS in the NFL at 7-3, while Chicago is 5-4-1.
- The Over/Under opened low at 40.5 and is only dropping lower, with most books hovering around 39.5.
- Minnesota and Chicago are both two of the best Under bets in the NFL, both have 7-3 records betting the Under.
Vikings vs Bears betting trend to know
The Minnesota Vikings have covered the spread in six of their last 11 away games (+2.70 Units / 22% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Vikings vs. Bears.
Vikings vs Bears game info
| Location: | Soldier Field, Chicago, IL |
| Date: | Sunday, 11-24, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
Vikings vs Bears latest injuries
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