The Penn State Nittany Lions hope to justify their projected place in the College Football Playoff when they travel for a showdown with the Minnesota Golden Gophers.
Our Penn State vs. Minnesota predictions expect a slog between rock-solid defenses resulting in the Under.
Let’s break down the best betting angles in our college football picks for Saturday, November 23 with kick-off set for 3:30 p.m. ET at Huntington Bank Stadium on CBS.
Penn State vs Minnesota prediction and best bet
My best bet
Under 45.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
Penn State is one of the most balanced teams in college football, and head coach James Franklin stated that his defensive coordinator Tom Allen isn’t getting the credit due to him.
That might change after Saturday’s game, which I expect will be a contest where points are hard to come by. And while the total of 45.5 is already low, it’s not low enough given how both of these defenses can impose their will.
It starts in the trenches. The Minnesota Golden Gophers have attempted the third-most pass plays per Big 10 game this season, but have only allowed the seventh-most sacks per contest. That will be tested by a Penn State pass rush ranked third in the conference in sacks per game, with a sack rate that ranks Top 25 on the season.
The way to slow down a pass rush is to run the ball, but that’s not Minnesota’s strong suit. Then again, neither is offense in general. The Golden Gophers rank 90th in EPA/rush, 75th in EPA/pass, and 103rd in early down EPA.
While they’ve found success on third downs, they’re facing a Penn State defense ranked 30th in third-down success rate. The Nittany Lions are also fifth in EPA/rush, 26th in EPA/pass, and 10th in early down EPA.
Penn State’s offense has been outstanding this season, but this will likely be as tough of a test as Ohio State. The Golden Gophers secondary will punish any mistakes opposing quarterbacks make. Drew Allar has already admitted he knows he’s facing a defense that will ballhawk, as evidenced by their 16 interceptions.
But Minnesota will cause problems for a Penn State offense ranked Top 5 in both rushing and passing success, EPA/pass, and third-down success. The Golden Gophers are 11th in early down EPA, 31st in run success rate, and have allowed the second-fewest 20+ yard pass plays in Big 10 play.
Minnesota has rushed for at least 123 yards in five of its six wins this season, with a 41-yard performance against UCLA being the outlier. The Golden Gophers have failed to eclipse the 80-yard mark in all four defeats. And the inability to run on a Penn State team allowing just 3.44 yards per carry in Big 10 play — the third-lowest in the conference — will allow the Nittany Lions pass rush to pin their ears back.
Penn State has allowed only nine offensive touchdowns in seven Big 10 games, while the Golden Gophers have given up just 19 in as many contests. I’ve got this game coming in Under 40 points, and I’ll happily take the Under in what’s going to be a very cold, hard-hitting defensive showdown.
Penn State vs Minnesota same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 45.5
Tyler Warren anytime TD
Minnesota TT Under 13.5
It’s rare to see a tight end getting multiple carries a game, but Tyler Warren is that dude. Penn State’s star TE has caught five touchdown passes this season, but he’s rushed for scores in each of his last two games, giving him four on the season. He’s the offense’s best weapon, and he’ll be the man Penn State relies on in the red zone.
Ohio State scored two touchdowns against Penn State earlier this month. Before that, USC found the end zone three times. Penn State’s other five Big 10 foes have four touchdowns combined. Those are also the only two teams to top 13 points during the conference slate, and Minnesota’s offense isn’t primed to match what those teams achieved.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Penn State vs Minnesota odds
Penn State vs Minnesota live odds
Penn State vs Minnesota opening odds
- Penn State vs. Minnesota spread: Minnesota +11.5
- Penn State vs. Minnesota moneyline: Penn State -450, Minnesota +340
- Penn State vs. Minnesota Over/Under: 44.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Penn State vs Minnesota spread and Over/Under analysis
- Penn State has remained an 11.5-pt favorite since the line opened last weekend.
- The Nittany Lions have covered the spread as favorites in three straight, while Minnesota has covered in seven of its last nine games — including 2-0 ATS as double-digit underdogs.
- Penn State has seen the Under go 7-3 this season, with five of its seven Big 10 games failing to eclipse the 45-point mark.
- Minnesota’s had an even split on totals, but four of its last five games have also stayed at or below 45 points.
Penn State vs Minnesota betting trend to know
Penn State have covered the Spread in 4 of their last 5 away games (+2.90 Units / 53% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Penn State vs Minnesota.
Penn State vs Minnesota game info
| Location: | Huntington Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN |
| Date: | Saturday, 11-23, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBS |
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