Coach Prime’s No. 16 Colorado Buffaloes control their own destiny in the race toward the Big 12 Championship Game, but those dreams could come crashing down in a Week 13 road clash with the red-hot Kansas Jayhawks.
The Jayhawks have won three of their last four, including upsets over Big 12 frontrunners Iowa State and BYU, and my Colorado vs. Kansas are backing the home team as field-goal underdogs.
Find out more in my free college football picks for Saturday, November 23.
Colorado vs Kansas prediction and best bet
My best bet
Kansas +3 (-115 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
The Kansas Jayhawks have covered the spread in four straight games by an average margin of 12.1 points. The Jayhawks were thrown in the trash after a disastrous start to the season in which they didn’t defeat an FBS team until mid-October, but they’re now in a great place and can still reach bowl eligibility if they win out.
First-year offensive coordinator Jeff Grimes’ unit ranks 19th in both EPA per play and success rate, and Kansas has reached 400 yards of total offense in four of its last five matchups.
While the Colorado Buffaloes have been superb defensively (25th in EPA per play, 28th in success rate), they will be at a slight disadvantage on that side of the ball. They’re allowing too many big plays (94th in explosiveness), especially on the ground (96th in rushing explosiveness). That’s a concern against Devin Neal and Jalon Daniels, who are two of the most prolific rushers in college football.
Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter are possibly the deadliest duo in the country, so you might be surprised to see that the Buffs “only” rank 42nd in EPA per play and 44th in success rate offensively.
They made improvements along the offensive line this offseason and it has shown, but they are still far from a dominant group up front (117th in line yards, 113th in stuff rate). That’s led to an inconsistent rushing attack, entering Week 13 averaging a measly 2.8 yards per rush, and it’s hard to have a truly elite offense while being so one-dimensional.
This is a close matchup on paper, so I’m inclined to grab the home underdog catching three points. The Jayhawks are 4-0 ATS in their last four games and I’m inclined to believe there’s still value in the market.
Colorado vs Kansas same-game parlay (SGP)
Kansas +2.5
Luke Grimm 60+ receiving yards & anytime touchdown
Shedeur Sanders 275+ passing yards
Luke Grimm has been Kansas’ go-to weapon in the passing game, leading the team in targets (69), receiving yards (579), and touchdowns (6). He’s received an impressive 79.5 receiving grade from PFF for his efforts while averaging a robust 2.40 yards per route run.
Colorado has a good secondary, but opposing teams have opted to pick on nickel Preston Hodge. The Liberty transfer has been targeted 12 more times (71) than any other Buffs secondary player while allowing 260 more yards.
Hodge missed last week due to injury and his status is currently unclear, so consider him questionable until further notice. Whether it’s Hodge or a backup option, Kansas should hold an advantage when targeting Grimm.
Shedeur Sanders is averaging 322.2 passing yards per game and should find success against a Kansas secondary ranking 95th in PFF’s coverage grade. Kansas has two good corners in Cobee Bryant and Mello Dotson, but they also take too many chances — one of the reasons the Jayhawks rank 117th in passing explosiveness.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Colorado vs Kansas odds
Colorado vs Kansas live odds
Colorado vs Kansas opening odds
- Colorado vs. Kansas spread: Kansas +2.5
- Colorado vs. Kansas moneyline: Colorado -150, Kansas +125
- Colorado vs. Kansas Over/Under: 60.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Colorado vs Kansas spread and Over/Under analysis
- Kansas has hit the 1H moneyline in four of its last five games at home (+3.55 Units / 45% ROI).
- Colorado is +8 in turnover differential, while Kansas is +3. The Jayhawks have committed just three turnovers since the start of October, a big reason for their in-season turnaround, and Colorado has forced 11 in that time span.
- Both teams are trending toward the Over. Colorado is 5-2 O/U in its last seven games; Kansas is 8-4 O/U in its last 12.
Colorado vs Kansas betting trend to know
Kansas has covered the 1Q spread in its last four games at home (+4.05 Units / 85% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Colorado vs Kansas.
Colorado vs Kansas game info
| Location: | GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO |
| Date: | Saturday, 11-23, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
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