The playoff race is heating up, and it's certainly a factor when the Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets finish a three-game series in prime time.
The Mets are clinging to a two-game lead for the final Wild Card spot over the Atlanta Braves. They gained a game on Atlanta last night and kept the Phillies from clinching the NL East divisional crown for at least one more day.
However, I think they'll no longer be able to delay the inevitable with Zack Wheeler on the mound for Philly tonight, as I explain in my Phillies vs. Mets predictions and MLB picks for Sunday, September 22.
Phillies vs Mets prediction
My best bet
Phillies moneyline (-145 at Caesars)
My analysis
The Philadelphia Phillies will get the job done today. Even at a juiced price of -145, there's value here as my projections made this -165.
Philly has the better pitcher and a team with an favorable matchup against the pitcher it opposes. They are also eager to wrap up the divisional crown, so I love the Phillies in this spot.
Zack Wheeler will take the mound for Philly this evening, and you don't need me to tell you about why that's a good thing for them. Yet again, he's been one of the best pitchers in baseball. Tonight represents a strong matchup for him.
Throughout his career, Wheeler has been a strikeout pitcher, producing high chase rates outside the zone. This season has been no exception as he rates in the Top 15% of baseball in K-rate and is even better when it comes to chase rate.
That's a problem for the New York Mets.
New York has a chase rate above the league average and a chase contact rate among the lowest in baseball. Wheeler has feasted against such teams this season.
Wheeler has faced half of the teams listed in the Bottom 10 of chase contact rate nine times. Just once has he allowed more than two earned runs — that was against the Pittsburgh Pirates way back in March. Since then, he's been stellar, including most recently when he faced one of these teams in the Seattle Mariners and went eight scoreless innings. I expect him to have a stranglehold on this game from the onset.
On the Mets' side will be Tylor Megill. He's been impressive against the Phillies this season, but on paper, he should struggle. Given that I expect the Mets to have issues scoring today, it'll not take much, but there's a pretty viable path to the Phillies scoring a few runs against him.
Throughout the season, Megill has had issues with the hard-hit ball, and it's not like the Phillies are void of power with Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, Nick Castellanos, and others in today's lineup.
Phillies vs Mets same-game parlay (SGP)
Phillies moneyline
Kyle Schwarber 1+ home run
The Phillies need a clutch hit late in the season to lock up the division. They're playing a fastball-heavy pitcher with a hard-hit ball problem, so you I know what I'm doing. I'm pairing Schwarber to go deep tonight with my best bet.
Schwarber owns some of the best hard-hit numbers in the sport against the fastball, and he'll see a good deal of it tonight. Schwarber has struggled lifetime against Megill with a small sample size, but that has given us a better price here.
As I've noted previously, the career numbers for Megill against the Phillies have been strong, but there's really no justification for it. I'm applying similar logic to this bet.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Phillies vs Mets odds
Phillies vs Mets live odds
Phillies vs Mets opening odds
- Moneyline: Philadelphia -140 | New York +129
- Run line: Philadelphia -1.5 | New York +1.5
- Over/Under: Over 7 | Under 7
Phillies vs Mets moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- This has been a highly-competitive series, with the two teams splitting the last 10 head-to-head games.
- The Over has been a strong bet when the pair have met; it's gone that direction in seven of the last 10 collisions.
- Philly has been a .500 baseball team over the last 10 games, which has cost bettors 1.3 units.
- The Mets have surged. New York has won seven of its last 10 games, which has netted bettors over two units.
Phillies vs Mets trend
The Phillies have hit the F5 team total Under in 41 of their last 62 games (+18.80 Units / 25% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Mets.
Phillies vs Mets game info
| Location: | Citi Field, Queens, NY |
| Date: | Sunday, 9-22-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:15 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
| Phillies starting pitcher: | Zack Wheeler (16-6, 2.56 ERA) |
| Mets starting pitcher: | Tylor Megill (4-5, 4.08 ERA) |
Phillies vs Mets latest injuries
Phillies vs Mets weather
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