Saturday’s 15-game slate is filled with pennant races and underwhelming pitchers with poor histories against their opponent.
Our MLB player props for today focus on three of those matchups, including Mets lefty Sean Manaea taking on the Philadelphia Phillies.
Read on for why my MLB picks are backing Manaea, Walker Buehler, and Reid Detmers have difficulties on Saturday, September 21.
MLB props for September 21
- Sean Manaea Under 17.5 outs (+133 at Caesars)
- Walker Buehler Under 17.5 outs (+120 at DraftKings)
- Reid Detmers Under 17.5 outs (-115 at DraftKings)
Today’s best MLB props
Prop bet #1: Sean Manaea Under 17.5 outs
New York Mets lefty Sean Manaea has had a decent season, but he has a difficult home matchup with the Philadelphia Phillies.
Manaea has been exceptional as of late. His previous six outings have all been quality starts; NY has won all six, and he’s whiffed 48 hitters during that six-start span.
As great as the Mets lefty has been recently, he’s had mixed results in his two home starts this season against the Phillies. He got bombed across 3 2-3 frames in his June 8 start and went six innings on May 13.
Poor performances seem to be a pattern for Manaea against the Phillies. Dating back to 2017, the Mets southpaw is 1-2 with a 5.64 ERA and has only pitched past the sixth frame in one of his five career starts against the Phillies.
That’s why we have a good chance to start the day with (+) money. The Phillies lead the show in creating runs against lefties (121 wRC+). Their current lineup slashes .357/.403/.743/1.145 with seven bombs and 25 hits across 105 career plate appearances against Manaea, and I see an early hook for the Mets southpaw.
Prop bet #2: Walker Buehler Under 17.5 outs
Los Angeles Dodgers righty Walker Buehler hasn’t had an easy time of things in his comeback from 2022 Tommy John surgery.
Buehler is 1-5 with a 5.54 ERA across across 65 innings. He’s pitched into the sixth frame in just three of his 14 starts, with only 54 strikeouts. That’s because his heater has dipped by two mph, and as a result, Buehler serves up over two home runs per nine and 1.3 per nine frames at Dodger Stadium.
Buehler has made two starts against the Colorado Rockies this season. He got shelled for seven earned runs on June 18 in Colorado across four frames, and was tagged for three earned runs in six innings on May 31.
Without the heater, Buehler is an average pitcher with a below-average 5.02 xERA. He’s walked 16 batters with five hitters going yard across his past 28 innings, and the current Rockies lineup slashes .268/.306/.486/.792 with six jacks and 37 hits across 138 career at-bats against the Dodgers righty.
Since the TJ surgery, Walker has struggled against everyone, including the Rockies, and those struggles will continue tonight with an early hook.
Prop bet #3: Reid Detmers Under 17.5 outs
Los Angeles Angels righty Reid Detmers has a tall order today when he faces the Houston Astros in Space City.
That’s because the Astros crack righties at an elite level by creating the sixth-most runs against right-handers (wRC+ 109) and an eighth-best .296 BABIP.
Detmers has pitched better on the road, but his 5.50 ERA isn’t good. He allowed seven earned seven runs with three HRs in his last start against the Chicago White Sox and has recorded 18 outs twice in seven away starts.
His May 20 start at Houston was a disaster. Detmers scattered eight hits with a pair of bombs across four innings and boasts a 7.14 ERA with 44 hits and seven jacks in eight career starts against the Astros.
Detmers hasn’t recorded 18 outs at Space City in three career tries, and he likely won’t today. The current Astros slash .311/.393/.495/.888 with 32 hits and five HRs across 103 career at-bats, so I expect an early hook for Detmers today.
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Today’s MLB games
Here is the schedule and MLB odds for today’s matchups:
