The beat went 2-3 SU yesterday as a pair of Under 17.5 out props failed to get us to the window for a winning day.
It's getaway day for the league but even in the late games, there are some good pitcher spots to target.
These are my favorite MLB pitcher props for Wednesday, April 9.
Josh's best starting pitcher props for April 9
Gausman u5.5 strikeouts (-125 at DraftKings)
Bido u15.5 outs (-110 at bet365)
Senzatela u1.5 walks allowed (+155 at bet365)
Today's SP best bets
Jays vs Red Sox
The angle: Kevin Gausman is not the K% pitcher he once was and this weather is a tough setting
The move: Kevin Gausman Under 5.5 strikeouts
Kevin Gausman is coming off a zero-K outing vs. the Mets and his run over his last 15 starts is very concerning for his punchout chances. Across those last 15 starts, the Toronto Blue Jays righty has hit 6+ strikeouts just three times. His K% fell from 30% to 21% from 2023 to 2024 and this matchup is not a good one.
The Boston Red Sox have seen a lot of Gausman and took him deep four times over 17+ innings last year with just 12 strikeouts. It's one of the best lineups in baseball right now and the wind will help it tonight.
There are gusts up to 40mph blowing out to right field today and for a pitcher struggling to get ground balls and miss bats, the Red Sox could knock him around. I'm not sure Gausman is an elite K% pitcher anymore as teams have adjusted to his splitter.
Padres vs Athletics
The angle: Osvaldo Bido might not have a long enough leash for more than five innings
The move: Osvaldo Bido Under 15.5 outs (-110 at bet365)
Osvaldo Bido has yet to get more the 15 outs because he has been held to 87 and 81 pitches through two starts. He might have only allowed three earned runs but he has given up 15 hits + walks over 10 innings of work vs. bad offenses in Colorado and Seattle. Those are also two of the worst K% teams in baseball and he had tallied just nine punchouts to six walks. The command is an issue and a reason why he does not get deep.
He has a tougher matchup today vs. the San Diego Padres in one of the better hitting settings today with 73-degree temperatures. THE BAT is projecting just 14.8 outs on 85 pitches and he'll have to be very efficient to get the ball in the sixth but his command will be his downfall.
Brewers vs Rockies
The angle: Antonio Senzatela's Under walk prop projects as one of the best +EV pitcher props on the day
The move: Antonio Senzatela Under 1.5 walks allowed (+155 at bet365)
We released this prop this morning with Derek Carty on MLB Prop Picks Powered by THE BAT. It is still hanging around at this +155 number in a home start vs. the Milwaukee Brewers who currently rank 23rd in BB% at 8%.
Antonio Senzatela does not get deep and will not see a lot of batters which always helps. He has not pitched more than 12 innings since 2022 but always had good command when he was starting, walking a batter every five innings from 2021 to 2022. This is being priced over his small sample sizes of the last three seasons where he has 12 walks over 40+ innings. This is a big price for what is a little better than a coin flip. He projects for 86 pitches and 1.63 walks.
Not intended for use in MA.
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