The Los Angeles Dodgers host the Colorado Rockies on Sunday afternoon as the two teams look to play a deciding third game of the series.
After dropping Saturday's affair, my Rockies vs. Dodgers predictions have the Dodgers getting back in the win column thanks to a strong showing by Yoshinobu Yamamoto.
Read on for my MLB picks for Sunday, September 22
Rockies vs Dodgers prediction
My best bet
Yoshinobu Yamamoto Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-143 at Caesars)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
Dave Roberts and the Los Angeles Dodgers are still figuring out their postseason rotation. One thing that we do know for certain is that Yoshinobu Yamamoto is being counted on to fill a valuable role, and the Dodgers would prefer him to be fully ramped up before the playoffs.
Since returning from a rotator cuff injury, the first-year Japanese import has thrown eight scoreless innings while striking out 11 batters and allowing seven hits. He was particularly effective against the Cubs in his return outing, notching eight strikeouts on just 59 pitches.
The team is slowly increasing his workload and it’s expected that he may throw six innings or 90 pitches on Sunday. That should be enough time to dominate a lowly Colorado Rockies lineup.
Colorado ranks 28th in wRC+ (83) against right-handed pitchers. It hasn’t been any better lately as the Rockies have a 74 wRC+ against RHP in the last 15 days while posting the sixth-highest K rate (26.3%).
Yamamoto faced Colorado back on June 1, allowing one earned over six innings while allowing seven hits and recording seven strikeouts. The books have priced his strikeout prop at 6.5 for today’s outing and I envision him going over that total for a second time against this opponent.
The 26-year-old ranks in the 80th percentile in chase rate (31.5%) and the 87th percentile in K rate (28.5%). We haven’t seen a lot of his this year, but what he have seen is undeniably impressive.
Yamamoto will be throwing at home against a beatable opponent and there will be a pitcher-friendly umpire, Alex MacKay, behind the plate. I’ll bet on him recording seven or more Ks on Sunday.
Shohei Ohtani pick: TEASER
My best bet
Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 total bases (-125 at bet365)
My analysis
Shohei Ohtani has had a historic week and there’s no reason to expect the slugger to start slowing down now. He’s gone 4-for-7 with one home run, two RBI, three runs scored, and two steals so far this series and is averaging 3.8 total bases across his last 10 games.
I think of Ohtani as an alien because the seemingly supernatural individual is capable of doing things that us mere mortals simply cannot. Well, we only need him to record two or more total bases to cash this prop, and he’s done that in three of his last five games.
Antonio Senzatela gets the not for the Rockies. We haven’t seen much of him since 2022 when he posted a 5.07 ERA and 5.24 xERA. It’ll be a warm, sunny day with winds of 6.9 to 10.3 mph blowing out to right field, which is great weather for Ohtani to continue doling out damage.
Rockies vs Dodgers same-game parlay (SGP)
Dodgers -1.5
Yoshinobu Yamamoto Over 7+ strikeouts
Shohei Ohtani 2+ total bases
The Dodgers have a large advantage on the mound and at the plate, so it’d be a surprise if they didn’t cover the run line. They’ve done so in 20 of their last 32 games at home, so it forecasts as a victorious day for the home team in La La Land.
Senzatela has made just three starts since the start of the 2023 season but the projection systems have seen enough that they aren’t favorable on his odds of having a very effective comeback. The 29-year-old projects to have an ERA in the mid-5.00s for most systems.
He’s had a rough go of things against the Dodgers in his career, posting a 5.98 ERA and 1.62 WHIP across 64 ⅔ IP against his divisional rival.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Rockies vs Dodgers odds
Rockies vs Dodgers live odds
Rockies vs Dodgers opening odds
- Moneyline: Colorado XX | Los Angeles XX
- Run line: Colorado XX | Los Angeles XX
- Over/Under: Over XXX | Under XXX
Rockies vs Dodgers moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- The Dodgers have won six of the last eight meetings against the Rockies, covering the run line in all six victories.
- The Dodgers have been a great bet to hit their Team Total Over at home, cashing that ticket in 27 of their last 43 games.
- The Rockies, meanwhile, have been underperforming offensive expectations on the road. They’ve cashed their Team Total Under in 18 of their last 29 away games.
- The Dodgers have trended toward the Over for a while at home now, hitting the Over in 46 of their last 72 games at Dodger Stadium.
Rockies vs Dodgers trend
Yamamoto has gone Over his strikeout prop in five of his last eight starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Rockies vs. Dodgers.
Rockies vs Dodgers game info
| Location: | Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date: | Sunday, 9-22-2024 |
| First pitch: | 4:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Rockies TV, SNLA |
| Rockies starting pitcher: | Antonio Senzatela (0-0, 6.00 ERA) |
| Dodgers starting pitcher: | Yoshinobu Yamamoto (6-2, 2.63 ERA) |
Rockies vs Dodgers latest injuries
Rockies vs Dodgers weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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