The best game of Week 4 should have probably been sitting in a primetime slot late in the season but hey, don't look a gift horse in the mouth. We've got a fantastic matchup in Maryland, as the Buffalo Bills look to rebound from their first loss of the young season on the road against the Baltimore Ravens.
This spicy AFC showdown pits two early NFL MVP odds favorites against one another in what should be a high-scoring back-and-forth. The players under center will draw the attention but in our Bills vs. Ravens NFL prop picks, we're looking at the two passers' co-stars.
Bills vs Ravens prop picks
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Bills vs Ravens Week 4 props
This passing game has it all
Through the first two weeks of the season, Stefon Diggs had gone nuclear, averaging 10 catches, 135 yards, and two touchdowns on a 34.3% target share. He came back to earth a bit in Week 3, catching seven passes for 74 yards, and saw his season-long target share drop to 28.1% as Josh Allen attempted a ridiculous 63 passes.
Last Sunday was about as unkind of conditions as Diggs could expect this year. He was matched up with Xavien Howard, one of the league's best corners, for around 75% of his snaps, and in brutally hot conditions that had Diggs telling reporters he required two IVs at once and felt his entire body cramping.
Yet, again, he still hauled in seven passes for 74 yards. Now, he faces a Ravens defense allowing a league-high 353 passing yards per game in what looks primed to be a shootout, with the highest total on the board in Week 4. Yet, Diggs' receiving yards total sits at 79.5 and it's difficult to make a case for this not going Over.
We'll have game script in our favor, with this sure to be a back-and-forth war. We have a fine matchup, with Baltimore in the middle of the league in pass defense DVOA and 21st in pass defense EPA. And, above all else, we have the NFL's most devastating offense, quarterback, and QB-WR connection on our side.
This total is nowhere near high enough to make me flinch on the Over.
Stefon Diggs Prop: Over 79.5 receiving yards (-115)
Singletary stuffed
Last week, I faded Devin Singletary's rushing yards total of 38.5 and was never even concerned, as the replacement-level runner coughed up 13 yards on nine carries for an awful 1.44 yards per carry.
Singletary's rushing yards prop hasn't really changed from Week 3 to 4, and my stance hasn't changed at all. I love the Under for several reasons.
The third-year back doesn't have a ton of opportunities, with Buffalo the league's most pass-happy offense. The Bills' pass rate over expectation of 14.3% is over 3% higher than the next closest team in Kansas City. Their backfield, as a whole, has totaled just 49 carries through three weeks.
As if a small share of the offense wasn't hard enough on Singletary, he's not doing much with it. His hideous Week 3 line was an extension of his 2022 as a whole, where he's run for 80 yards on 23 carries — a 3.48 per carry mark — but has accumulated 35 of those 80 yards on three carries.
With increasing competition in the backfield, as James Cook becomes more prominent, plus the presence of Josh Allen — quite easily Buffalo's best runner — in a competitive game with the Ravens, there's no reason to expect Singletary to turn his poor season around.
Devin Singletary Prop: Under 34.5 rushing yards (-115)
No joke
In his season debut, as he returned from a torn ACL, J.K. Dobbins played a modest 45% of snaps, totaling 23 yards on seven carries and adding another 17 yards on two catches. However, in a Ravens offense fairly thin at skill positions, Dobbins had some encouraging numbers in the passing game.
The former Buckeye saw only two targets but did run a route on 58.6% of Lamar Jackson's dropbacks, a sustainable rate when looking at Baltimore's backfield and other skill position players. It's a fantastic rate, too, for a tailback like Dobbins — for comparison, Leonard Fournette, who had one of the best pass-catching roles of any RB last year, had a 52.9 route participation rate in '21.
The opportunity alone should see Dobbins post consistently steady lines as a receiver but even more so in a matchup like this, which is sure to see Lamar and Josh Allen going back and forth relentlessly. And while Lamar Jackson isn't affected by pressure in a similar way to almost any other QB, a Bills defense creating pressure at a 27.3% rate will force the ball out quickly to shallow targets like Dobbins.
With a promising role in the passing game and a clear runway in the backfield — in Dobbins' return, he played one fewer snap than Justice Hill and got the bulk of the carries — Dobbins will clear his modest scrimmage yards total.
J.K. Dobbins Prop: Over 47.5 total yards (-118)
