The Denver Broncos will visit the New England Patriots on Sunday after having their original Week 5 date postponed due to a COVID-19 outbreak in New England.
The NFL betting odds haven’t changed too much from one week to the next, with the Patriots set as 10-point home chalk. However, the status of New England quarterback Cam Newton, as well as the Broncos’ QB shuffle and possible suspension for RB Melvin Gordon, have played into the Week 6 line.
Here are our NFL free picks and predictions for Broncos vs. Patriots on October 18.
Denver Broncos vs New England Patriots betting preview
Weather
Mostly sunny skies and temperatures in the low 60s are in the forecast for Gillette Stadium with winds blowing ESE up to 10 mph Sunday. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NFL weather info.
Key Injuries
Broncos: K.J. Hamler WR (Out), Noah Fant TE (Out), Melvin Gordon RB (Out), Jeff Driskel QB (Out).
Patriots: James Ferentz C (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The home team is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings between Denver and New England. Find more NFL betting trends for Broncos vs. Patriots.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
It appears Newton will be back in action in Week 6. He missed Week 4 due to a positive COVID-19 test, which forced the Patriots to play the Chiefs on Monday of that week.
New England dearly missed Newton under center, with the backups combining for three interceptions and ruining what was a solid effort from the defense. New England allowed just one offensive touchdown to Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs, and now Bill Belichick has had an extra week to game plan for the Broncos’ sputtering attack.
The Patriots have been lethal with extra time to prep, boasting a 21-4 SU record while going 15-9-1 ATS coming off a bye over the past 15 seasons. This stop unit entered 2020 with massive gaps due to departures and players opting out, but Belichick just needed time to figure things out – especially with no preseason.
Denver is hopeful No. 1 passer Drew Lock can return this Sunday after being sidelined with a shoulder injury since Week 2. While Lock is at the top of the depth chart, there’s not much difference between him and backups Jeff Driskel and Brett Rypien in terms of value to the spread — in short, they all kind of suck.
We’ve seen some weird results from these COVID-impacted games (like Tuesday’s Bills-Titans contest), but with Cam back at the wheel and extra time in the lab for the Hoodie, I’m laying the lumber with the home team in this 1 p.m. ET start (11 a.m. MT).
PREDICTION: New England -10 (-110)
Over/Under pick
The big hit to the Denver offense is a possible suspension for Gordon, who was busted for a DUI earlier this week. That infraction hands down a three-game ban, which could take hold this week.
Gordon has been one of the few highlights for the Broncos attack, but his possible absence could be softened by the return of fellow RB Phillip Lindsay, who’s been out since Week 1 with turf toe.
Either way, we know weren’t not getting an abundance of air yards from a passing attack that ranks 27th in average gains and second-last in passing offense DVOA at Football Outsiders. New England also knows this and will sell out to stop the run, putting the playbook on the wonky shoulder of Lock.
The Denver QB has struggled away from home in his limited starts, completing only 56.94 percent of passes and owning a QB rating of just 82.9 away from home (compared to 92.9 in Denver). To make matters worse, New England could have top CB Stephon Gilmore back for Week 6 after his positive COVID test last week forced this schedule shakeup.
PREDICTION: Under 45 (-110)
Player prop pick
The Patriots finally got to see what Damien Harris could do in Week 4’s loss to Kansas City. After missing the first three games with an injury, the second-year back broke out for 100 yards on 17 carries, with the bulk of that coming on a 41-yard dash.
Harris won’t see the same workload in Week 6, not with Newton and the passing game back at full strength, but could benefit from those option plays Cam brings to the table. On top of that, Belichick was singing his praises after a strong week of practice.
Betting on New England running backs is always a shot in the dark, as James White and Rex Burkhead could easily hog the touches and goal-line carries. But given his potential and effort versus the Chiefs, Harris is a tasty flyer to find the end zone Sunday.
PREDICTION: Damien Harris touchdown score (+155)
Broncos vs Patriots betting card
- New England -10 (-110)
- Under 45 (-110)
- Damien Harris touchdown score (+155)
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