Week 7 of the NFL season is already here, and we have a terrific AFC North clash when the 2-4-0 Cleveland Browns meet the 3-3-0 Baltimore Ravens.
Cleveland travels to Baltimore hoping to shake a three-game losing streak, while Baltimore looks to get back on track after falling 24-20 to the New York Giants.
Who will win this AFC North clash? Find out in my free NFL betting picks and predictions for this Week 7 showdown between the Browns vs. Ravens on Sunday, October 23.
Browns vs Ravens best odds
Browns vs Ravens picks and predictions
Baltimore opened as a six-point favorite, money came pouring in on the Ravens, and the number has rested at -6.5 points.
Baltimore enters this critical AFC North matchup with the sixth-best scoring offense, and it will be the Ravens offense that wins this contest and covers the spread.
Quarterback Lamar Jackson is their leader. Despite several nagging injuries, the Ravens' signal caller has thrown for 1,277 yards with 13 TD passes, and six interceptions with an additional 451 rushing yards and a pair of TDs.
Tight end Mark Andrews makes life easier for Jackson but is questionable for Sunday. The two have teamed up for a team-high 57 targets for 455 yards and 5 TD receptions. With Rashod Bateman listed as questionable, look for wide receivers Devin Duvernay and Demarcus Robinson to see an uptick in opportunities Sunday. A look at their NFL player props wouldn't hurt either.
The Browns' secondary is coming off another awful performance against New England. Pats' QB Bailey Zappe hung 309 passing yards and a pair of scoring strikes on the injury-riddled secondary, and Jackson and Co. will be able to move the ball through the air against this Browns defense.
Jackson can also beat them with his feet, but running back Kenyan Drake showed flashes of his former self when he scampered for 119 yards on 10 carries and a TD in their loss to the Giants. RB J.K. Dobbins is slowly returning from injury and has rushed for 123 yards and a TD.
Cleveland can’t stop the run, either. Injuries to Myles Garrett and Jadaveon Clowney have allowed teams to punish it on the ground, and Jackson and the Ravens will have a day against that defense.
The Browns' offense is RBs Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, with a sprinkle of WR Amari Cooper and TE David Njoku thrown in for good measure. QB Jacoby Brissett has thrown for 1,326 yards with six TDs, but his five interceptions have stalled more than one offensive drive.
Brissett takes snaps behind an injury-riddled offensive line and was sacked four times by New England. He’s up against a Baltimore defense allowing 287 passing yards with 1.8 TDs per game. Still, much of those numbers are from their fourth-quarter defensive meltdown against Miami, and the Baltimore defense is much better than a bad quarter.
Chubb has been terrific this season, rushing for 649 yards with a team-high seven TDs, but he’s up against the 7th best rushing defense in the league, and with his offensive line in shambles, Chubb might still get his, but it won’t be enough.
Finally, Baltimore has underwhelmed this season, but Sunday is its chance to right the ship and plod a course that leads it to an AFC North title and beyond. It has all the tools necessary to defeat a banged-up Browns' tackle football team, and that will happen.
Look for Jackson to have his best game of the season, the defense to step up big against the mediocre Cleveland passing game, contain Chubb and Hunt, and then win this game by more than a TD. Lay the points and go with the Ravens to cover!
My best bet: Ravens -6.5 (-105 at BetVictor)
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Browns vs Ravens spread analysis
We’ve already covered why I like Baltimore to cover the 6.5 points, but here are a few things I found that may help.
The Browns have numerous injury concerns: essentially, their entire defense deals with something. Cleveland averaged 2.5 sacks per game in 2021 with nearly the same roster as it has now. This season it's averaging just 1.8 sacks. Not caused by regression, but by player availability or lack thereof.
Despite the high number of passing yards allowed, the Ravens are No. 10 in the NFL in passing defense DVOA. Since their fourthth quarter collapse to Miami, Baltimore held Bills' QB Josh Allen to 213 yards and Bengals' QB Joe Burrow to 217 yards. The defense is better than its numbers, and Brissett will have a hard time throwing the ball for much success on Sunday.
Cleveland is 0-5-0 against the spread in its last five games with Baltimore, and the favored side is 4-1-0 ATS over their past five meetings.
Browns vs Ravens Over/Under analysis
A 46-point total is good, but I’m leaning toward the Over for Sunday.
The Browns' defense is miserable, and they’ll likely be without All-Star corner Denzel Ward. Jackson and Andrews could have a big day together, and Duverney, along with Robinson, could do significant damage against the decimated Browns’ secondary.
These two sides are tied for 29th in second-half points allowed. While Miami is responsible for most of the Ravens' number, it’s still something to consider, and Cleveland averages 12 second-half points per contest. Baltimore chips in with 11 second-half points scored.
The Over is 5-1-0 over the Browns' first six matchups and 2-4-0 through the Ravens' first six games this season.
Browns vs Ravens betting trend to know
The road team is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings. Find more NFL betting trends for Browns vs. Ravens.
Browns vs Ravens game info
| Location: | M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD |
| Date: | Sunday, October 23, 2022 |
| Kickoff: | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBS |
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