Browns vs Texans Odds, Picks, and Predictions Week 16: Cleveland D Rolls Punchless Offense

The Cleveland Browns head to the Lone Star State on Sunday to face off against the Houston Texans. Despite dealing with injuries, both teams are on a path to the playoffs, with the 9-5 Browns looking to keep their momentum going for the Week 16 odds with veteran Joe Flacco now at quarterback.

Meanwhile, the Texans look like they'll miss star QB C.J. Stroud for the second straight game. With that in mind, NFL odds opened with the Browns as 2.5-point road favorites for this contest, with the Over/Under at 40.5. Here are my best free NFL picks and predictions for Browns vs. Texans on December 24.

Browns vs Texans odds

Browns vs Texans predictions

One of the weirdest stats this season is that the Cleveland Browns have allowed a league-low 13.1 points per game at home while surrendering a league-worst 30.7 ppg on the road. However, while crowd support and weather can give any defense a boost at home, such polar opposite results are likely more an outlier than anything else. Sure, the Browns defense is clearly better in Cleveland, but a stop unit with so much talent shouldn't be as bad as those numbers suggest on the road. 

They'll certainly be in a good spot to shut down the Houston Texans on Sunday, with C.J. Stroud likely missing his second-straight game due to a concussion. Stroud has been the main reason why Houston is in the playoff hunt this year, and there's a big drop-off from the heavy Rookie of the Year odds favorite to backup Case Keenum.

Keenum is a veteran with 65 career starts who led a 19-16 victory last week, but he's limited as a passer. Keenum had fewer than 200 passing yards in regulation versus a terrible Titans pass defense last week while averaging just 5.4 yards per attempt until connecting on a 41-yard catch-and-run with Devin Singletary in overtime.

It doesn't help that the Texans are banged up at receiver, with Tank Dell on the IR while Nico Collins and Noah Brown have been limited in practice. Houston's offensive line has also been decimated by injuries, with Kendrick Green and Tytus Howard already on the IR and left tackle Laremy Tunsil and guard Shaq Mason questionable for Sunday. 

Even with Stroud, Houston's offense has gotten off to sluggish starts this season, ranking 19th in the league in EPA and 25th in success rate during the first quarter. Meanwhile, the Browns have been shutting the door on opponents early, ranking fifth in the league in defensive EPA and first in success rate during the first quarter. 

The Browns have forced opponents to punt a league-high 6.8 times per game this season, while the Texans have averaged 7.0 punts per game over their last three contests. Expect the Browns to frustrate Keenum early and bet on Houston's first drive to end in a punt. 

My best bet: Texans first drive: punt (-120 at bet365)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Browns vs Texans same-game parlay

Texans first drive: punt

Texans first quarter team total Under 0.5

First quarter spread: Browns -0.5

+400 at bet365

Since I'm backing this Browns defense to have success against Keenum & Co. on the opening drive, I'll take the Under 0.5 on Houston's first-quarter team total as well. Keep in mind that even with Stroud at QB, the Texans averaged a modest 4.5 ppg in the first quarter. With Keenum at the helm last week, they didn't get on the scoreboard until they kicked a field goal at the end of the half. 

If the Browns are able to hold the Texans scoreless in the opening quarter, they also have a good chance of having a lead. The Texans are 26th in the NFL in defensive EPA in the first quarter and have given up 5.1 ppg during that frame — the seventh-highest number in the league. The Browns offense has also shown signs of life under Joe Flacco, who has thrown for 685 yards over the last two weeks. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Browns vs Texans spread and Over/Under analysis

The Texans opened as 2.5-point favorites, but after reports came out that Stroud was likely going to sit out again due to a concussion suffered in Week 14, the line flipped to favor the Browns at -2.5. While the spread moved 5 points, the total ticked down by 2.5, going from 42.5 to 40. 

The Texans edged the Titans 19-16 as 3-point road underdogs last week. That was Keenum's first start since he coincidently played with the Browns and led them to a win against the Bengals in the 2021 regular season finale — a meaningless contest where the Bengals rested key starters. 

The Browns held on to beat the Bears 20-17 last week, which gave them back-to-back wins and covers with Flacco at QB. Despite their punchless offense and stingy defense, the Over is 6-3 in Cleveland's last nine games.

Browns vs Texans betting trend to know

The Houston Texans have hit the Game Total Under in seven of their last nine games at home (+4.80 Units / 48% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Browns vs. Texans.

Browns vs Texans game info

Browns vs Texans latest injuries

Browns vs Texans weather

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