Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs might be the luckiest team in football history, but with a one-loss record entering Week 14’s home matchup vs. the Los Angeles Chargers, even I don’t want to fade the Champs on Sunday night.
However, my Chargers vs. Chiefs predictions expect QB Justin Herbert to take matters into his own hands as L.A. deals with a poor running game and the potential loss of Ladd McConkey,
These are my best NFL picks for Sunday Night Football on December 8.
Chargers vs Chiefs SNF prediction
My best bet
Justin Herbert Over 20.5 rushing yards (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
The Los Angeles Chargers have been one of the worst rushing teams since Week 8, ranking 27th in success rate.
They also rank 30th in yards per rush attempt on the road away from the track at SoFi Stadium. Now, with J.K. Dobbins out, this might be the least talented backfield in football, being led by Gus Edwards and his 3.4 yards per carry.
Only the Colts have a worse running success rate on first down since Week 8 than L.A. who now has to face a Kansas City Chiefs defense allowing a league-low 57.5 rushing yards per game to opposing RBs.
So, where do I derive my best bet from that?
Justin Herbert will continue to face some long passing downs with the ineffectiveness of his early run game. Couple that with a receiving group that very well could be without its best weapon in Ladd McConkey, and Herbert might be doing a lot of improvising Sunday night.
Additionally, Herbert has increased his rushing frequency of late. He had topped this number easily in three straight games prior to Week 13 where the offense had to do very little thanks to Kirk Cousins’ generosity.
From Week 8 to 12 — the same time the running game began to sputter — Herbert had games of 49, two, 32, 65, and 29 rushing yards. The game he had just two yards, the Bolts won wire-to-wire vs. the Browns and led 20-3 at halftime.
Herbert will have to be the Chargers’ best player on offense this week in a massive divisional game in prime time. He will not have the comfort of a multi-score lead, either.
Facing likely a lot of long third downs, Herbert is a good bet to run on SNF and don’t forget, he has legit wheels, too. I would play this Over to 23.5 yards.
Chargers vs Chiefs SNF same-game parlay
Justin Herbert 20+ rushing yards
Patrick Mahomes 20+ rushing yards
DeAndre Hopkins 50+ receiving yards
Both QBs can get after it on the ground, and with bet365 moving its milestone totals from increments of 25 to 10, getting the double QB rushing Over at 20+ is +350 for the pair.
THE BLITZ is on board, projecting 21 yards for Patrick Mahomes (total of 17.5) and Herbert as a four-point dog on the road and likely facing long third downs will have ample scrambling opportunities
DeAndre Hopkins seems to be adjusting more each week to this offense. His usage isn’t through the roof, but he played on 57% of the snaps last week after failing to get to 50% in his previous two games while leading all WRs in routes in Week 13.
He finished last week with a 4/90/0 on a healthy nine targets. His total is 42.5 and he's projected for 49 yards.
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Chargers vs Chiefs odds
Chargers vs Chiefs live odds
Chargers vs Chiefs opening odds
- Spread: Los Angeles +4.5 | Kansas City -4.5
- Moneyline: Los Angeles +170 | Kansas City -205
- Over/Under: Over 44.5 | Under 44.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Chargers vs Chiefs spread and Over/Under analysis
- This spread was 4.5 on the look-ahead and was bet as low as 3.5 as of Monday.
- After going into Week 13 with a total of 44.5, the total re-opened at 43.5 Sunday night and was bet down to 43 by Monday. If Ladd McConkey is out, I wouldn't be surprised if this took some more Under money.
- The Chiefs have not covered a spread in six straight games but have also won 14 straight one-score games.
- The Chiefs are down to their third kicker, but Matthew Wright had 13 points in Week 13 and made kicks of 25, 42, 35, and 32 yards, with his only miss coming at the end of the 1H on a 59-yard attempt.
Chargers vs Chiefs betting trend to know
The Kansas City Chiefs have only covered the 1H Spread in 7 of their last 22 games (-10.40 Units / -41% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Chargers vs. Chiefs.
Chargers vs Chiefs game info
| Location: | GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO |
| Date: | Sunday, 12-8, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 8:20 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBC |
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