There’s nothing quite like a Super Bowl rematch to spice up the regular season — and that’s what we get on Sunday,m with the unbeaten Kansas City Chiefs visiting the San Francisco 49ers.
K.C. has survived some scares in its 5-0 start, and my Chiefs vs. 49ers predictions buy into this being a revenge game for San Francisco — no matter what head coach Kyle Shanahan says.
My NFL picks break down this marquee October 20 showdown with a look at an in-form Deebo Samuel.
Chiefs vs 49ers prediction
Who will win Chiefs vs 49ers?
Early-season records can be a little deceptive, and it feels like the San Francisco 49ers' 3-3 mark undersells the way that Shanahan’s men are playing.
The 49ers have to be sick of the sight of the Kansas City Chiefs in big games, but I don’t see the hosts shying away from another crack at taking down Mahomes and Co., especially with the visitors’ defense overshadowing their offense.
Given Kansas City’s thin receiver depth and the expected return of San Francisco’s No.1 back Jordan Mason, I’m looking past Andy Reid’s stellar 21-4 record after bye weeks and picking the 49ers to snap the Chiefs’ 10-game win streak.
My best bet
Deebo Samuel Over 54.5 receiving yards (-115 at BetMGM)
My analysis
Christian McCaffrey’s extended absence could have really submarined this San Francisco 49ers offense, but Deebo Samuel is one of the big reasons for the 49ers staying the course.
Samuel fills so many different roles for the visitors, and he torched the Seattle Seahawks secondary in last Thursday’s win, finishing with 102 receiving yards including a 76-yard touchdown.
He’s hit the Over on this number in three of his last four games, and he went past the 100-yard mark in Week 2 against the Minnesota Vikings too. I’m sensing another Over on Sunday.
When the blitz comes, Brock Purdy has been willing to tough it out in the pocket and take some shots down the field. Purdy leads the league with 23 passes of 20+ yards this season, and Samuel is often the beneficiary.
He makes the most of his targets too. Samuel ranks fourth in the league with 87 yards after contact, and the 49ers pose a much bigger offensive threat than the Kansas City Chiefs’ past two opponents.
With Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle equally capable of stretching the Kansas City secondary, there should be some tasty one-on-one coverage for Samuel to exploit.
Chiefs vs 49ers same-game parlay
Deebo Samuel Over 54.5 receiving yards
Kareem Hunt anytime touchdown
Patrick Mahomes Over 240.5 passing yards
Ever since Kareem Hunt was added to the Kansas City practice squad in late September, it felt inevitable that he would end up with a big share of the backfield touches — and he’s done a solid job of replacing Isiah Pacheco’s production.
Hunt had 28 touches in the Chiefs’ Week 5 win over the New Orleans Saints. While the efficiency was nothing to write home about, he found the end zone that night and I see him profiting from red zone carries again on Sunday.
The 49ers rank in the Top 10 in rushing yards allowed per game, so I have my doubts about Hunt’s rushing numbers, but that doesn’t matter for this anytime touchdown prop, which also extends to his receiving work.
I’m rounding out my SGP with the Over on the Patrick Mahomes passing yards prop. He’s gone past this 240.5 line in his past two outings, including a 331-yard effort against the Saints, and he threw for 333 yards against the 49ers in Super Bowl LVIII.
If the visitors can’t get any traction in the ground game, Reid won’t hesitate to skew the game plan even further toward the pass, and the Chiefs have just enough proven receivers to help Mahomes cash this prop.
Looking for more picks? Check out Robert Criscola's Chiefs vs. 49ers same-game parlay pick.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Chiefs vs 49ers odds
Chiefs vs 49ers live odds
Chiefs vs 49ers opening odds
- Spread: Kansas City +1.5 | San Francisco -1.5
- Moneyline: Kansas City +100 | San Francisco -125
- Over/Under: Over 46.5 | Under 46.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Chiefs vs 49ers spread and Over/Under analysis
- It’s the rare chance to bet on Mahomes as a slight underdog and the Chiefs are 9-1 ATS in their past 10 games.
- But the 49ers are 15-5 in their past 20 games at Levi’s Stadium, and they’ve hit the 1H moneyline in 16 of their last 22 contests.
- Though the Over is 7-3 in San Francisco’s last 10 outings, Kansas City is coming off three straight Unders and hasn’t reached the 30-point mark since last November.
- Don’t count on a high-scoring finale – the 4Q Under is 15-3 in the Chiefs’ past 18 games.
Chiefs vs 49ers betting trend to know
The 1H Over is 9-2 in the 49ers’ last 11 home contests. Find more NFL betting trends for Chiefs vs. 49ers.
Chiefs vs 49ers game info
| Location: | Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, CA |
| Date: | Sunday, 10-20, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 4:25 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
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