Chiefs vs Chargers Week 11 Picks and Predictions: Valdes-Scantling Set For Big Game

Forget what Sir Elton says, Sunday night is also all right for fighting when a pair of AFC West rivals go to war. The Kansas City Chiefs visit the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday Night Football in Week 11.

Injuries have plagued both of these teams entering this prime-time tilt, with a number of skill players either sidelined or questionable on gameday. That’s taken the NFL betting odds for this divisional dance for a ride throughout the week.

I break down the point spread and Over/Under total for Sunday Night Football and give my best NFL betting picks and predictions for Chiefs vs. Chargers on November 20.

Be sure to also check out our favorite SNF player prop picks for tonight's matchup.

Chiefs vs Chargers best odds

Chiefs vs Chargers picks and predictions

It wasn’t all bad news coming out of the Chiefs’ WR room, as Marquez Valdes-Scantling is off the injury report after being limited due to an illness this week. 

Valdes-Scantling will see an increased role in the Kansas City passing game with Smith-Schuster and Hardman out of action, and the Bolts doing a solid job at slowing down TE Travis Kelce. Chargers’ standout safety Derwin James has some of the best success in the league in checking Kelce over their six matchups.

Valdes-Scantling has seen his targets dwindle since the start of the season, with an average of 6.2 in the opening five games slim to an average of three over the last four outings. However, thanks to some bigger plays, MVS’ yardage hasn’t seen as dramatic a dip with games of 60 and 111 yards in that span.

The 6-foot-4 receiver splits his snaps inside and out, doing the bulk of his damage deep, but can also catch contested balls over the middle. With James keeping an eye on Kelce and L.A. missing top CB J.C. Jackson, along with a passive Chargers pass rush giving Patrick Mahomes time in the pocket for big plays to develop, MVS could take a big bite out of his receiving yards prop on one play.

Oddsmakers were slow rolling with the Sunday Night Football props, due to all the injuries on offense, and Valdes-Scantling has an O/U sitting as low as 44.5 yards — a bar he’s surpassed in five of his last seven outings.

His Week 11 total of 44.5 yards is a mild bump up compared to his totals of the past two weeks, climbing up slightly from 35.5 and 40.5 despite Hardman and Smith-Schuster being out and that pair contributing 29% of the team’s total receptions on the year. 

Valdes-Scantling makes up for almost 11% of those total team catches for an average of 49 yards on 2.89 receptions per game. Considering the targets up for grabs, Kelce’s issues with James, the fast indoor track of SoFi, and this game boasting the tallest total of Week 11 (52.5 points), I like the O-V-E-R on M-V-S' receiving total of 44.5.

My best bet: Marquez Valdes-Scantling Over 44.5 (-110)

Chiefs vs Chargers spread analysis

The lookahead line for this all-AFC West war sat at Kansas City -5.5 last week, but following the Chiefs' win over Jacksonville and the Chargers' loss to San Francisco, the official opener listed KC as a 7-point road chalk.

However, early money showed up on the home underdog and slimmed this line below the key number of a touchdown. And once injury news started trickling out surrounding the Chiefs WRs, the spread sunk to as low as -4.5 before coming back up to -5.5 this weekend.

The Chargers are hoping to have top WRs Mike Williams and Keenan Allen back, as both players are optimistic about their status for Week 11. Tight end Gerald Everett showed up on the injury report as questionable this weekend (groin).

As for the Chiefs, JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardiman are out but fellow WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling is expected to play after missing time with an illness this week.

Kansas City defeated L.A. 27-24 in Arrowhead Stadium back in Week 2, with the Bolts putting together a late touchdown drive to cover the spread as 4-point road underdogs in that game. 

That loss started an up-and-down stretch for the Chargers, who are 4-4 straight up and 5-3 against the spread in their last eight outings. The Chiefs have had more success in the win column since that first meeting, posting a 6-2 SU record in their last eight outings but have only covered the spread twice in that span (2-5-1 ATS). 

Part of that problem has been lofty expectations from the betting markets and some off days for this KC offense, which has struggled to make up for a defense ranked 21st in EPA allowed per play. Sunday’s line movement is a reflection of just that, with some key members of this potent passing game sidelined Sunday night.

Chiefs vs Chargers Over/Under analysis

The O/U total opened at 50.5 points and stayed around that number for most of the week until injury reports started hinting at possible returns for the Chargers receiving corp. With Williams expected back and Allen waiting for a final thumbs up, this total has risen to 52.5 points on Sunday morning.

Getting those two targets back should very much help QB Justin Herbert kickstart a Bolts attack that has been stuck in mud the past month. Los Angeles ranked No. 8 in EPA per play in the first five weeks of action but has slid back to 31st since Week 6.

Both offenses run a quicker tempo, with L.A. sitting No. 2 in seconds per play at Football Outsiders and Kansas City coming in No. 11 in that measurement. They also rank out No. 2 and No. 6, respectively, in plays per game, and play on the fast indoor track of SoFi Stadium tonight.

On the year, these AFC West rivals own twin 4-5 Over/Under records. They played Under a closing total of 53 points back in Week 2 and have alternated O/U results over their past eight head-to-head meetings.

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