Chiefs vs Jets SNF Prop Bets: Mahomes Shines Under the Prime-Time Lights

Prop bet #1: Grim Reaper SZN

Currently, Kansas City Chiefs star quarterback Patrick Mahomes is third in the NFL in passing touchdowns among players yet to play in Week 4 (Jordan Love is tied for second after Thursday Night Football) and is in position to move up the rankings on Sunday Night Football.

In his career, Mahomes has thrown at least three touchdown passes in a game 37 times in 83 starts, including last week against the Chicago Bears. The former MVP has thrown for at least three touchdowns in 44.5% of his games and against this struggling New York Jets team, he should be able to do it again.

This season, the vaunted Jets defense has been a shell of itself, ranking 20th in EPA per play and 25th in EPA per dropback. The combination of their pass rush not getting home and Sauce Gardner and the rest of the secondary taking a step back has made them far easier to pass on this season.

That makes this an appetizing matchup for Mahomes, who ranks third in EPA per play among quarterbacks this season and is on pace to throw for 40 touchdowns. It also helps that Travis Kelce continues to be one of the most dominant playmakers in the league, always seemingly finding daylight in the end zone and making fearless catches over the middle. 

Despite not having a true WR1, Mahomes has taken advantage of the mismatches created by Kelce and running back Jerick McKinnon in the passing game. McKinnon has 11 receiving touchdowns in 20 games with Kansas City, and the emergence of rookie Rashee Rice should only help his cause this week.

Patrick Mahomes prop: Over 2.5 passing touchdowns (+155 at bet365)

Prop bet #2: Sticky Rice

When you have arguably the greatest offensive play-caller in NFL history as your head coach and a future Hall of Famer at quarterback, your offense can adapt to the weapons around it.

Outside of Kelce, who led the team in targets last season and is so far this season, the Chiefs have thrived with a rotating cast of wide receivers. They’ve been able to get away with it because Andy Reid and Mahomes are that good, but last week saw the emergence of Rice.

The second-round pick out of SMU finished with five receptions for 59 yards on seven targets, second in all three categories to Kelce. Rice is now second on the team in targets and his ability to work the middle of the field and find holes in zone coverage has given Mahomes an easy outlet on multiple occasions.

The rookie was moving the chains — four receptions went for first downs — and creating after the catch with 31 yards of YAC. Without a clear top wide receiver, Rice is in a position to take a starting role given Skyy Moore and Marquez Valdes-Scantling’s ineffectiveness this season.

Rice’s ability to operate out of the slot or out wide as the Z should also lead to favorable matchups against a combination of D.J. Reed (giving up a 70.6% completion rate), Tony Adams (118.7 QB rating when targeted), or a linebacker (CJ Mosley and Quincy Williams have surrendered a combined 202 passing yards in three games).

While Rice’s total is set at 25.5 receiving yards (-110) for this game, he’s in a good position to hit the 50-yard milestone.

Rashee Rice prop: 50+ receiving yards (+390 at bet365)

Prop bet #3: Oh, Zachary...

After a cruel summer in which Zach Wilson had to swallow his ego and embrace backup life, the former No. 2 overall pick has been thrust back into the lineup and it’s not looking like it’s going to be a love story in the Big Apple.

Wilson has yet to throw for 175 passing yards in three games this season. He’s averaging just 155.6 per game despite throwing 28 passes per game. 

Not only is he dead last in EPA per play among the 34 quarterbacks who qualify this season, but he’s thrown twice as many interceptions (four) as touchdowns (two). Somehow he’s playing worse than ever and now he’s got to deal with a Chiefs defense that’s been ferocious since the return of All-Pro Chris Jones.

Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo’s unit is ranked fifth in EPA per play and fourth in EPA per dropback this season. Just last week, they held Justin Fields to just 99 yards through the air.

While 175 passing yards may seem like an easy number to hit, it clearly isn’t for the former golden boy of BYU. He’s gone under that number 14 times in 25 games with Gang Green and the Chiefs won’t be any easier than the Bills (second in EPA per play), Cowboys (third in EPA per play), or Patriots (11th in EPA per play) were this season.

Zach Wilson prop: Under 174.5 passing yards (-110 at bet365)