Two teams coming off a bye week will be meeting in what might be the most important game this week for playoff implications, with the 6-7 Indianapolis Colts travelling to the Mile High City to take on the 8-5 Denver Broncos.
The Colts have won two of their past three games and need a win to stay alive in the wild-card race. The Broncos have won three straight and will almost guarantee themselves a playoff spot with a win today.
My Colts vs. Broncos predictions expect a game that will come down to the wire. Find out why I'm backing the road team in my NFL picks for today's 4:25 p.m. ET CBS kickoff.
Colts vs Broncos prediction
Who will win Colts vs Broncos?
Two years ago, the Colts went into Denver and won an ugly game in overtime that featured no touchdowns in the entire game. Denver is a decent favorite at -200 on the moneyline at home, and I think they are likely to get the win, but it is more of a toss-up than the odds.
The weakness of the Colts is certainly their run defense. However, the Broncos do not have the most threatening run game in the league. The Broncos will need a good Bo Nix game to get this win, which they have mostly got this season, especially in recent weeks.
My best bet
Colts +4 (-105 at BetMGM)
My analysis
If the Indianapolis Colts win this game, their playoff chances will increase to 56%, however, it will fall all the way down to 7% with a loss. Meanwhile, the Denver Broncos' playoff chances will jump all the way to 88% with a win and fall to 46% with a loss. This is such a huge game for the playoff picture in the AFC.
This is a dangerous game to be backing the Colts because the Broncos are 7-0 this season against teams with a losing record, and the Colts are 1-4 against teams with a winning record. However, there are plenty of reasons to believe the Colts can cover this spread and possibly even win straight up.
I am not a big believer in Anthony Richardson as a franchise quarterback, but he certainly can air it out deep and has a nice advantage against this Broncos defense. Richardson has attempted a pass of 10+ air yards on 47.9% of his attempts this season, which is 8.4% higher than any other quarterback in the NFL this year.
The Broncos have allowed the ninth-highest completion percentage on downfield passes this season at 52.3%.
While the Colts' defense has been very up and down all season, the addition of DeForest Buckner has made a big difference. Since he returned from injury in Week 8, he has generated the second most pressures among all defensive tackles in the NFL. As great as Bo Nix has been this season as a rookie, he has struggled under pressure.
Nix has just a 51.6 quarterback rating and only a 43.3% completion percentage against pressure. If the Colts can get pressure without needing to blitz and play their usual Cover 3 defense, they could force some mistakes and pull out the win in Denver.
Colts vs Broncos same-game parlay
Colts +4
Josh Downs Under 51.5 receiving yards
Anthony Richardson Over 187.5 passing yards
To go along with the Colts covering, I am going to throw in a couple of player props. To start, I believe this will be a bad game for Josh Downs. He aligns in the slot on 64.9% of his snaps this season, and the Broncos have allowed the fifth-fewest yards per target to slot receivers this season.
Finally, I will add Anthony Richardson to rack up the passing yards through the deep ball. Since we took one of his receivers to go Under, this will greatly boost our odds. However, he is going to get his yards with guys like Michael Pittman, Alec Pierce, and even Adonai Mitchell on deep balls in this game and not Downs underneath.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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More NFL picks and odds from Covers
Colts vs Broncos odds
Colts vs Broncos live odds
Colts vs Broncos opening odds
- Spread: Indianapolis +4 (-105) | Denver -4 (-115)
- Moneyline: Indianapolis (+165) | Denver (-200)
- Over/Under: Over 44 (-110) | Under 44 (-110)
Odds courtesy of BetMGM.
Colts vs Broncos spread and Over/Under analysis
- The spread was Colts -2.5 before the season but opened at Broncos -4.5 this week and has roller-coastered throughout the week before landing at -4 as of Saturday afternoon
- The underdog has covered six of the past eight matchups between these two teams.
- The total was 44.5 before the season and re-opened at 43.5 this week and, after an early drop, has climbed back up to 44 as of Saturday afternoon.
- Each of the past three matchups between these two teams has gone Under the total.
Colts vs Broncos betting trend to know
The Indianapolis Colts have covered the 1Q Spread in 13 of their last 20 games. Find more NFL betting trends for Colts vs. Broncos.
Colts vs Broncos game info
| Location: | Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, CO |
| Date: | Sunday, 12-15, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 4:25 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBS |
Colts vs Broncos latest injuries
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