Whether you’re rolling over your winnings from Sunday or trying to claw your way out of a weekend of red, Monday Night Football betting is the Grand Finale to the Week 6 schedule.
And with that in mind, we go beyond the spread and total for Monday’s matchup and give our best NFL prop bets for this primetime battle between the Indianapolis Colts and Baltimore Ravens.
Here are my favorite free prop picks and predictions for Monday Night Football.
Colts vs Ravens prop picks
- Lamar Jackson Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-102 at FanDuel)
- Zach Pascal anytime TD (+300 at DraftKings)
- Commit first accepted penalty – Colts (-115 at bet365)
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Colts vs Ravens MNF props
Action Jackson
With all the injuries to the Ravens to start the schedule, the offense felt like it was solely on Lamar Jackson’s shoulders. However, Baltimore has been able to get some bodies back at the skill positions and could add WRs Rashod Bateman and Miles Boykin into the mix Monday.
Jackson passed for a season-high 316 yards on 22 of 37 throws versus Denver in Week 4 but connected for only one touchdown pass. He goes up against a Colts defense slamming the door on opposing running backs in the red zone (second in red-zone run DVOA) but sitting 31st in red-zone pass defense DVOA at Football Outsiders.
With added receiving options as well as red-zone threats like TE Mark Andrews and RB Le’Veon Bell, we like Jackson to find his top targets for two passing TDs (or more) on Monday night.
PICK: Lamar Jackson Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-102 at FanDuel)
Zach Attack
After starting the season hot, with three touchdown catches in his first two games, Colts WR Zach Pascal has failed to find paydirt the past two outings.
Pascal will get his chances, targeted nine times inside the red zone in 2021 — tied for fourth-most in the league. He can also break off big plays as Indy’s No. 2 receiver, posting a 41-yard gain in last week’s win over the Broncos.
While the Ravens have done a great job shutting down top targets (No. 2 in Defensive DVOA versus WR1), they’ve struggled to slow the second-best options (24th DVOA against WR2). We like Pascal to put six points on the board in Baltimore — and this prop is anywhere between +230 and +300, so shop around for the best bang for your buck.
PICK: Zach Pascal anytime TD (+300 at DraftKings)
Flag on the play
Ever cheer for a penalty prop? Well, get ready.
To the credit of both teams, the Colts and Ravens are very disciplined squads who sit near the bottom of the NFL in penalties. In fact, Indianapolis has only been whistled for 17 accepted penalties in four games — fewest in the NFL (with a game in-hand).
A few slots behind them are the Ravens, racking up just 25 infractions so far in 2021. Baltimore has also induced just 26 penalties on opponents but six of those were offensive holding calls and seven were on false starts — half due to Baltimore’s blitz-happy stop unit.
The Ravens love to cause chaos and make offensive lines very nervous, blitzing on almost 33 percent of their opponents’ dropbacks and creating pressure on 30.6 percent of those snaps — most in the league.
The Colts have injuries across the O-line and have allowed pressure on 30.8 percent of Carson Wentz’ dropbacks, giving up 10 sacks on the season. With Baltimore bringing the heat early and often, expect some offensive holding from Indy’s pass protection and the Colts to get called for the first accepted penalty Monday night.
PICK: Commit first accepted penalty – Colts (-115 at bet365)
Where can I bet on the NFL?
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