In another potential snoozefest Thursday, the Washington Commanders and Chicago Bears will try to make us forget about last week’s TNF game.
This should be a very close game with the lowest total of Week 6 and the Bears sitting as 1-point home favorites. There is some value in betting on a heavy rushing approach from both sides which could also mean more field goals.
Find out in my free NFL prop picks for Thursday Night Football between the Commanders vs. Bears.
Commanders vs Bears props
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Commanders vs Bears TNF props
More TNF field goals
It’s Thursday Night Football and there’s a good chance that this week’s game could be just as slow as last week’s zero-touchdown matchup that saw seven total field goals.
Coming into Week 6, the Chicago Bears are scoring just 17.2 points per game with 6.6 of those points coming on field goals. The 38% field goal point share is the biggest in the league and thanks to an offense that’s getting inside the opposing 20-yard line just 2.4 times per game (tied for the third-fewest), kicker Cairo Santos could be busy.
Santos returned to the lineup last week after some personal issues kept him out of it in Week 5. He proceeded to hit all three field goals he attempted including two of 50-plus yards.
Soldier Field is not a great place to kick, but Santos knows the conditions and field. He’s 3-for-3 at home this season and 24-for-27 in the previous two seasons.
If Chicago does get inside the 20, don’t be surprised if this offense stalls out as Washington is in the top half of the league in RZ% thanks to a rush defense that sits fifth in EPA/rush. The Commanders have been giving it up through the air but have been responsible on the ground.
Chicago Bears Prop: Team total field goals Over 1.5 (-115 at bet365)
Rookie pricing
Third-round rookie running back Brian Robinson made his season debut last week and out-carried Antonio Gibson nine to three. He didn’t do a lot with his carries and had a seven-yard run called back due to a penalty, but he could be the No. 1 in a game that could see a ton of running.
Robinson should get the majority of rushing snaps vs. a Chicago defense that sits 22nd in EPA/rush and is allowing 124.4 rushing yards to opposing RBs on the season — the fourth-highest mark in football.
Dalvin Cook just ran for 94 yards on 18 carries with two rushing touchdowns last week vs. the Bears. The TDs aren’t an outlier as only two other teams have allowed more rushing scores than Chicago.
With a probable increase in volume and a TD price of +275, I’m backing the top rushing RB on the home favorite Thursday. This price should close closer to +200.
Brian Robinson Prop: Anytime touchdown (+275)
Academy passing volume
The Bears are attempting just 17.6 passes per game through five weeks, and those passes are coming from a quarterback with a 55.7 completion percentage, which is more than 10 points worse than his expected completion percentage of 66.1%.
This is the lowest volume passing team in football coming in on a short week. With a game that could have a neutral game script for 60 minutes, this could mean even more running for the Bears.
Justin Fields has thrown for more than 122 yards just twice this season, with the only two Overs coming across the last two weeks in games that Chicago trailed for the majority of them. He’s also the second-slowest quarterback to throw in the league at 3.06 seconds per throw.
With Chicago actually being favored, this game could certainly be a slow-paced, run-heavy game and has a game total of just 414.5 passing yards (at bet365).
The Commanders benched CB William Jackson — who has the team's second-highest cap hit — last week so a response from the Washington pass defense is also on the table Thursday.
Fields’ passing total is at a four-week high and is inflated thanks to the issues of the Washington pass defense. However, the Bears and Fields’ completion issues aren’t going to take advantage of the matchup.
Justin Fields Prop: Under 173.5 passing yards (-115)
