Commanders vs Bears Thursday Night Football Picks and Predictions: Mooney Won't Back Down

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The NFL Week 6 schedule hands down a Thursday Night Football matchup only bettors could love — and even that’s a stretch — when the Washington Commanders come to the Windy City to battle the Chicago Bears.

But before you call an audible on this primetime turd, keep in mind that these less-than-sexy showdowns can be ripe with betting value as the level of variance is high, and the public appeal is low. That means the door to NFL betting riches can be opened...if you’re willing to get your hands dirty.

I do just that, digging into the point spread and Over/Under total for TNF, as well as giving my best NFL picks and predictions for Commanders at Bears on October 13.

Commanders vs Bears best odds

Commanders vs Bears picks and predictions

After getting raked over the coals for the first four games of 2022, Bears quarterback Justin Fields won over some skeptics with his second-half performance vs. the Vikings on Sunday. Fields made some terrific throws — both short and downfield — and walked away with his best day, finishing 15-for-21 for 208 yards passing.

Fifty-two of those gains went to receiver Darnell Mooney, who also made the nightly highlight reel with an insane one-handed grab on a 39-yard deep strike. He finished Week 5 with only two catches on five targets but should have had more — and possibly a touchdown — if Fields didn’t leave one throw short in the first half.

Mooney played almost 90% of snaps for the Bears offense and continued to see balls thrown his way since head coach Matt Eberflus tinkered with his playbook ahead of Week 3, stating the need to get the ball in the hands of his best playmakers. 

Mooney had only two catches on five total targets for just four yards in the first two games but has seen his activity spike with 16 total targets and eight receptions for 169 combined yards in the past three outings. He remains a deep threat on Thursday, considering the matchup.

Washington enters Week 6 with mixed results defending the pass. The Commanders are bringing a lot of pressure (fourth highest rate per dropback) and allowing a completion percentage of only 58.9% (fifth lowest). But when foes do connect on throws, they’re going to good gains. 

Washington owns an average depth of target allowed of 9.7 yards (highest in NFL) and 12.2 yards per completion (third highest). The Commanders also have their hands full with top-tier WRs, ranking 22nd in Defensive DVOA versus WR1s at Football Outsiders, with an average of 92 yards allowed on 9.7 targets per game.

The Commanders have been torched by top wideouts in their opening five games, including six passes of 40 or more yards allowed and seven individual WRs amassing 60 yards or higher in those five contests.

Mooney’s receiving yards prop for Thursday Night Football is set at 43.5 yards Over/Under — a bar he hasn’t had much trouble topping in past performances. He’s gone for 52 yards (vs. 50.5 O/U) last week and 93 yards in Week 4 (vs. 35.5 O/U). And going back to 2021, Mooney topped that benchmark in six of his final eight games.

Considering his growing involvement in the offense, Fields' growing confidence, and the company the Bears are keeping on Thursday, Mooney could potentially knock this total out in one shot.

My best bet: Darnell Mooney receiving yards Over 43.5 (-114)

Commanders vs Bears spread analysis

The look-ahead line back in the summer actually had Washington as a 2.5-point road favorite before the start of the 2022 campaign. However, a lot has changed in five weeks of football.

The Commanders enter Week 6 near the bottom — if not at the bottom — of the oddsmakers’ power ratings, lugging a 1-4 SU record to Chicago on a short week. Washington’s metrics don’t look great on either side of the ball, sitting 30th in Team DVOA at Football Outsiders. 

The Bears aren’t far behind at 28th in that advanced metric but at least stay home for this primetime game and showed some fight in recent appearances, most recently rallying against Minnesota in a 29-22 loss in Week 5. It seems like the home-field advantage is all the credit books want to give Chicago at this point.

Oddsmakers opened this game between pick’em and Chicago -1 on Sunday night, and the market consensus has seen early opinions in favor of the home side. That has the Bears -1 at many shops, but there are still a few PK lines out there as of Tuesday morning.

The early Covers Consensus numbers show an overwhelming 67% of picks on Chicago, as the betting markets have absolutely soured on Washington’s 1-4 ATS mark.

Commanders vs Bears Over/Under analysis

The look-ahead total sat at 44.5 points in the offseason. Even that modest number seems sky-high considering the quality of these two offenses entering Week 6.

Washington is currently 28th in EPA per play and after scoring 27 and 28 points in the opening two games of the season, the Commanders have tallied a combined 35 points in the past three outings. Countering that inability to score is a D.C. defense oozing points at the seams, with Washington allowing an average of 25.6 points per contest.

Chicago’s offense showed life last Sunday vs. Minnesota, putting up 22 points, but is still in the bottom third in yards per play and EPA per play, as well as second last in first downs per contest. Defensively, the Bears have had their moments but haven’t faced the toughest competition through five games. The Vikings managed 29 points and 429 yards in Week 5. 

The official Week 6 total hit the board as high as 40 points on Sunday night and it didn’t take long for that number to tumble as low as 37.5 as of Tuesday morning. Covers Consensus is showing 56% of early picks on the Under and the Bears and Commanders come into primetime with identical 2-3 Over/Under counts on the season.

Primetime totals have also stayed below the number, with a 5-11 O/U mark so far in 2022. The weather for Thursday night is calling for clear skies and light winds for Chicago (15 mph gusts), with “feels like” temperatures in the mid-30s.

Commanders vs Bears betting trend to know

Soldier Field has been a factory for Unders the past four years, with Chicago home games producing an 8-18 Over/Under count (69% Unders) since 2019. The Bears went 2-6 O/U as a host last season and are 1-1 O/U in two home stands in 2022 so far. Find more NFL betting trends for Commanders vs. Bears.

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