The Dallas Cowboys confront the ghosts of playoffs past when they visit the San Francisco 49ers tonight on Sunday Night Football in Week 5 odds.
Dallas has seen its Super Bowl hopes crushed by San Francisco in each of the past two postseasons, and these vintage NFC rivals headline the Week 5 slate.
Each team serves as the other’s toughest test so far this season, and the NFL odds have a short spread set for what could be one of 2023's beat games.
Let's break down the SNF odds as I give my best NFL picks for Cowboys vs. 49ers on October 8. Be sure to also check out our Cowboys vs. 49ers SNF prop picks along with our Dak Prescott picks.
Cowboys vs 49ers odds
Cowboys vs 49ers predictions
The San Francisco 49ers enter Week 5 as the highest-scoring team in the NFC, putting up 31.3 points per game.
Some of the shine comes off that scoring pace when you run down the teams showing up on San Francisco’s schedule. The Niners have feasted on a number of broken clubs that possess either dismal defenses or awful offenses that can’t stay on the field.
Needless to say, the date with the Dallas Cowboys is a big measuring stick for the 49ers.
Second-year Cinderella Brock Purdy is the darling of the analytics community, with the quarterback ranking tops in a number of fancy passing equations. His favorite target through four weeks is wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk, who’s staking his claim as a top-tier target in the NFL.
Aiyuk is coming off a monster outing against Arizona last week, snagging all six passes his way for 148 yards — a week and a half after sitting out the Thursday game with the Giants due to a shoulder injury on the short week.
In the season opener, Aiyuk recorded eight grabs on eight targets for 129 yards and two touchdowns in a lopsided win over Pittsburgh and has a favorable matchup against this Dallas defense in Week 5.
As highlighted by The Athletic this week, the Cowboys' secondary runs the most man coverage in the land, at a 40.2% rate, and it just so happens that Aiyuk rank as the second-highest WR versus man and sits Top 10 in yards per route run against man coverage (4.14). Dallas is also down All-Pro corner Trevon Diggs, who would have been assigned to Aiyuk on most snaps.
He finished with just two receptions for 27 yards against Dan Quinn’s defense in the Divisional Round last January but posted six catches for 66 yards versus Dallas in the 2021-22 playoffs. He also has nine catches on 13 targets for 73 receiving yards in a shootout with the Cowboys in December 2020.
Aiyuk’s player props have his receiving yards Over/Under set at 59.5 yards for Sunday night. His player projections range from 55.9 to a ceiling of more than 71 yards, with my number coming out to 63.4 yards.
Purdy and the Niners’ passing game is by far the most dangerous Dallas has faced through four weeks. The Cowboys have lined up against a “murders row” of rival QBs in Daniel Jones, Zach Wilson, Josh Dobbs, and Mac Jones — most of those guys sinking to the bottom of the QB ratings.
My best bet: Brandon Aiyuk Over 59.5 receiving yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
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Cowboys vs 49ers same-game parlay
Brandon Aiyuk Over 59.5 receiving yards (-114)
Brandin Cooks Over 36.5 receiving yards (-114)
49ers ML (-184)
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Aiyuk is a combo of power and speed and will thrive against a man-heavy Dallas secondary missing its best defender.
Meanwhile, Brandin Cooks has the speed to go after a softer San Francisco secondary, specifically corner Deommodore Lenoir. CB Charvarius Ward is also currently banged up with a heel injury.
The 49ers have been absolutely dominant at home, but this is their first test of 2023. We’ll avoid the half-point hook on the spread and take the Niners to win outright.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Cowboys vs 49ers spread and Over/Under analysis
The official Week 5 odds opened with the Niners laying the hook at -3.5 and it has remained steady there for most of the week. There is a select group of sportsbooks dealing 49ers -4 as of Thursday afternoon.
San Francisco brings an undefeated 4-0 mark into this Week 5 matchup and is one Sean McVay field goal call away from being undefeated against the spread as well.
The 49ers continue to be one of the most complete teams in the land, sitting second in net yards and ranking at the top of the page in many offensive and defensive metrics. Kyle Shanahan’s offense is a pain to plan for, getting gains on the ground and through the air.
Dallas isn’t too far off in those advanced stats. The Cowboys stop unit opened the year at peak form — ranking No. 1 in DVOA — but has also played some pop-gun attacks to start the season. Dan Quinn’s defense is just as disruptive as ever, recording 14 sacks and 10 takeaways through four games.
Offensively, the Cowboys may look a lot better than they truly are. Dallas, which is No. 6 in EPA per play, hung 30 and 38 points on solid defenses from the Jets and Patriots, but the offense accounted for just three touchdowns in those outings.
Red zone efficiency is the biggest blemish for Dallas, which is just 4 for 15 inside its opponents’ 20-yard line over the past three games, including a 1-for-5 output in the stunning Week 3 loss to Arizona. Dallas was 1 for 3 in the red zone against the 49ers in last year’s divisional round playoff game.
The Over/Under for Sunday Night Football hit the board at 45.5 points and has slimmed to as low as 44.5 as of Thursday afternoon.
Both teams are 2-2 Over/Under on the season and stayed below the total in their two postseason matchups the last two years, with San Francisco winning 23-17 and 19-12 with closing O/U numbers of 51.5 and 46.5 points.
The Niners run one of the slower offensive tempos in the league, with a lot of pre-snap motion chewing up the clock. Shanahan’s schemes rank tops in seconds per play while Dallas is also among the slower paces, sitting fourth in seconds/snap.
However, those pace numbers also reflect two teams that have held sizable leads late into games, which means a more methodical approach and plenty of running to kill the clock and protect the win.
While the forecast for Santa Clara calls for cloudy skies and little wind, this game does take place outdoors and on the natural grass surface of Levi’s Stadium. Dallas is a team that thrives on the faster indoor and artificial surfaces, so this venue does hold an added advantage for the 49ers.
Cowboys vs 49ers betting trend to know
The 49ers are on a 15-2 ATS run in their last 17 home games while winning 12 of those contests by 15 points or more. Find more NFL betting trends for Cowboys vs. 49ers.
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Cowboys vs 49ers game info
| Location: | Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, CA |
| Date: | Sunday, October 8, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 8:20 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBC |
| Opening odds: | 49ers -3, 45 O/U |
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