Tonight's Week 5 odds showdown on Sunday Night Football sees Dallas Cowboys head coach Mike McCarthy return to San Francisco — where he served as offensive coordinator in 2005 — to face a 49ers team that looks like the best in all the land.
This game will have large implications for the race for the No. 1 seed in the NFC, and it’s a primetime battle between two of the four teams in the NFL to rank Top 10 in both offensive and defensive EPA per play. But with Kyle Shanahan’s team looking legit, led by a healthy Brock Purdy, the NFL odds are tabbing the 49ers as 3.5-point favorites.
Find out where our best bets lie in our free NFL picks and predictions for the NFL player props in the Week 5 edition of Sunday Night Football featuring Cowboys vs. 49ers on October 8. For more in-depth analysis of the SNF odds, check out our Cowboys vs. 49ers predictions courtesy of Jason Logan, as well as our Dak Prescott props from Jeremy Jones!
Cowboys vs 49ers SNF props
- McCaffrey 2+ TDs
- Lamb Over 66.5 rec yds
- Aiyuk Over 4.5 receptions
Picks made on October 7 at 9:45 a.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
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Cowboys vs 49ers SNF props
Prop bet #1: Christian faith
With Dan Quinn as defensive coordinator, the Cowboys have had one of the best defenses in the NFL for years, and they haven’t slowed down this season. They currently sit second in EPA per play on defense and first in EPA per dropback.
Where they can be had — to some degree — is on the ground, where they rank eighth in the league in EPA per rush. In their lone loss this season, the Arizona Cardinals of all teams were able to exploit them to the tune of 222 rushing yards.
Now they must try to slow down the best running back on earth in Christian McCaffrey, who just so happens to play in the best scheme on the planet for running back success. The 49ers sit fifth in the league in EPA per rush and have scored nine rushing touchdowns this year already.
In four games this season, McCaffrey already has seven touchdowns and is coming off a four-score game against the Cardinals. His dual-threat ability to strike as a rusher or pass catcher makes it all the more reasonable to believe he can score twice against the Cowboys.
With the anytime touchdown line of -175 jumping to +230 for two scores, the money is worth trusting Shanahan to frequently put the ball in the hands of his star. Not only does McCaffrey lead the NFL in rushing attempts, yards, and touchdowns, but he leads San Francisco in receptions too — his usage is through the roof.
He’s averaging 24.5 touches per game and scoring once every 14 touches. There could be more on his plate against the Cowboys too with Elijah Mitchell, who is second in carries on the team, ruled out for this game.
Christian McCaffrey prop: To score 2+ TDs (+230 at bet365)
Prop bet #2: CeeDee gets an A+
Outside of the ugly loss to the Cardinals, the Cowboys have been smashing opponents, outscoring teams 36 to 4.3 on average in their three wins. Despite their success, CeeDee Lamb hasn’t had the same buzz as some of the other big-time receivers in the league.
While there’s been a lack of pop for the former first-round pick out of Oklahoma, he still sits 13th in the NFL in receiving yards with 309 and is averaging 77.5 receiving yards per game, well Over his 66.5-yard line in this matchup.
In his career, Lamb has averaged 69.9 receiving yards per game. Since emerging as the No. 1 target in Dallas, that average has jumped to 74.9 per game. In the last two years, he’s gone over 66.5 receiving yards 14 times in 21 games.
Betting against the 49ers defense can be a scary proposition, but it’s been a slight down year by their standards. Defensive coordinator Steve Wilks’ unit is ninth in EPA per play and has been exposed in the secondary, arguably the weakest part of the roster, at times this season.
While they’ve won every game this season, the 49ers have given up Over 66.5 receiving yards to four receivers in four games. And they’ve really only faced one proven quarterback — Matthew Stafford — with none ranking in the Top 10 in EPA per play.
Lamb is the best receiver the 49ers’ secondary has seen, and Dak Prescott is the only quarterback in the Top 10 in EPA per play (seventh) that they’ve faced so far this season. Even if the 49ers build a lead, it will only support the Cowboys throwing the ball more.
CeeDee Lamb prop: Over 66.5 receiving yards (-110 at bet365)
Prop bet #3: It's up to Aiyuk
The 49ers have it all; the best running back in the NFL, the best play caller in the league, one of the most efficient passers, and a dangerous one-two punch at receiver that can turn any play into a house call.
It seems San Francisco can pick and choose which of Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk go off in any given game. This season, at least one of them has had over 100 yards from scrimmage in every game.
Brock Purdy is running the system to perfection this season, sitting second in EPA per play among quarterbacks, and there’s matchups to take advantage of through the air against this Cowboys defense with cornerback Trevon Diggs out for the season.
With Samuel banged up, Aiyuk is poised for another premier performance after going for 148 yards on six catches in Week 4 against Arizona. The former first-round pick out of Arizona State is currently sixth in the league in receiving yards per game and averaging Over five receptions per game (5.6).
Since becoming a go-to option in Shanahan’s offense last season, Aiyuk has led the team in catches with 78 last year and 17 so far this year. In that 20-game span, he’s caught at least five passes 11 times and has gone Over the number twice in three games this season.
The targets will certainly be there for him to do it again against Dallas, as he’s averaged 6.7 per game since the beginning of 2022.
Brandon Aiyuk prop: Over 4.5 receptions (+130 at bet365)
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